Tetragon Financial Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 24/1/2003 21:35

Certainly would not go long in the curren market. However "profits" have growing and normalised eps growth has averaged over 33% for the last 3 years. Scientific publishing is very profitable but I think this board could be right.

[davejb] 24/1/2003 21:20

DCB,
about 0.03?

[dead cat bounce] 24/1/2003 20:51

provided it breaks the mid Jan low, then it looks a perfect short to me. Can't see from your chart where support might ne though.

dcb

[dodddy] 24/1/2003 20:49

>theape, i waiting for the low to b taken out, then ill short it.thanks for pointing itout

[theape] 24/1/2003 20:45

weakening dollar ?

no one fancy this target price £2.

[theape] 22/1/2003 01:04

been looking at this for a bit,

and welcome your thoughts.

highly unusual to get a company valued at 3* sales in today's market. with negative cash per share and massive intangibles.

so I looked a bit further- ahh its an educational publisher, nice defensive industry, solid public sector / scientific subscription base. that explains it.

THEN.

I looked at the publication list, the number of sales per title, and the tiitles themselves



these are not blockbuster, key scientific journals.

they are highly fragmented, tiny print run ( a print run of 400, means 200 subscribers), and not what I would call essential scientific/ medical journals, but highly marginal, discretionary social studies titles.

a drop in renewal rates on marginal titles makes it uneconomicc to produce ( more people will read this thread than the journal, and they have to pay an editor/ contributors).

Ad revenue on marginal titles will drop (already has I guess).

so the key thing we are waiting for in the next set of results is.

a) renewal rates on subscriptions- have they dropped from the 95% in the current valuation.
b) has ad revenue dropped as expected.
c) have they now revalued the pension fund ( due in this set), looks like £2m provision at least to me. last valuation was 1999 and anticipated 8% p.a. growth in equities.
d) £30m of stock ( carry 3 years backlist)- how much will we be writing off.
e) 70% of turnover is in the US. now I know its supposedly scientific, but we all know what US publishing adventures have led to, and the state of that market.

so after reviewing all of the above in the next results.

will they still be able to carry £112m of intangibles on thebalance sheet and write it off over 20 years.

or will the renewal rates have dropped, a large proportion of titles need culling, leading to a substantial impairment review and intangible write down.

combined with ceasing to be a growth stock.

your guess is as good as mine, but a review of their titles and print runs gives an educated guess.

[blackbear] 15/10/2002 19:51

STARTING TO SHORT NOW THIS IS SOOO OVERVALUED.

[bearstalker] 15/10/2002 14:23

starting to rise now

[simonlongster] 25/9/2002 17:40

Starting to drop now

[calleva] 09/9/2002 15:16

Expect this one to bounce back today.

TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP plc


Acquisition of Fitzroy Dearborn Publishers
strengthens US book portfolio


Taylor & Francis Group plc ("Taylor & Francis", "Group"), the leading specialist
publisher of scientific, academic and professional books and journals, announced
today that through its US subsidiary Taylor & Francis Books Inc., it has
acquired the publishing business and assets of the US based reference book
publisher, Fitzroy Dearborn Publishers, L.L.C. ("FDP"). The maximum cash
consideration of #3.1 million ($4.9 million) is payable from existing Group cash
balances and bank facilities.

FDP specialises in publishing high quality award-winning reference materials in
the arts, humanities and sciences subject areas. FDP publishes some 25 new
books a year and has a backlist of approximately 350 titles that complement the
Group's existing publishing programme and will be integrated into the reference
publishing division of Taylor & Francis Books Inc. As part of a larger
publisher, FDP's publications will benefit from a larger customer base, Taylor &
Francis' traditional and electronic publishing expertise and economies of scale.
In the year ended 31 December 2001 FDP had sales of #2.4 million ($3.7
million).

The acquisition of the FDP business is consistent with Taylor & Francis' stated
strategy of growing its portfolio of "must have" information through well
planned organic development and earnings enhancing acquisitions.

David Smith, Chief Executive of Taylor & Francis Group plc said, "FDP is a high
quality business with an exciting publishing portfolio that will benefit from
being part of a larger Group. Its publications complement our existing
reference list making it a natural fit for the Group."


FDP was advised by the Van Tulleken Company.

For further information, please contact:

Taylor & Francis Group plc 020 7583 9855
David Smith, Group Chief Executive
Anthony Foye, Group Finance Director

Financial Dynamics 020 7831 3113
Tim Spratt/Charles Palmer




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

[harrykewill] 10/7/2002 14:12

fallen back enough to be worth opening a long position?

[sorrel] 27/3/2002 07:59

How will they pay for Blakwells?

[kenmill] 23/3/2002 13:32

the results were above expectations and prspects for 2002 are looking good. Also likelihood of at least one acquisition in 2002 and the market seems to like what it hears. Should stay at £6 or above now

[kenmill] 24/2/2002 15:46

replacement of T Selvey after 40 years has unsettled only the small investors. No institution has sold so its down to the results on 21st March and any takeovers. Dave Smith is a big player in this field and has the respect of the institutional shareholders and the industry and is a known dealmaker. I see no problem with the changeover apart from some short term nervousness. The recent one day 30p fall was on a turnover of 19,000 shares.

[matthewa] 19/2/2002 16:47

Falling on every sell now

[matthewa] 19/2/2002 16:46

Falling on every sell now

[gjj] 10/12/2001 16:12

Also short at 559 lat Wednesday

[m.t.glass] 10/12/2001 16:07

Reshorted it at 558.5p last Wednesday.

[march] 10/12/2001 15:20

There was a piece in the FT weekend on this. Final comment was 'Safe but expensive'

[march] 04/12/2001 16:29

Remember this ?

[kenmill] 16/11/2001 00:07

matthewa - it looks to be settling comfortably above £5.45, so lets wait for the next acquisition for some further meaningful upside !

[matthewa] 02/11/2001 19:24

kenmill - a close above £5.45 would indicate you are right.We shall see.....

[kenmill] 02/11/2001 18:04

All the concern regarding apparent institutional sales in the recent past probably related to 3i. They backed the company's expansion before they went public and have been reducing their holding as the job is done. These shares have been taken up by other institutions and have not therefore materially affected the price. Now the overhang seems to have gone and demand is picking up again. Not a candidate for the bear club anymore !

[kenmill] 01/11/2001 17:29

A few institutions nibbling away over the last couple of days so this looks like the turning point

[big vern] 30/10/2001 19:23

....I'm still gonna wait a bit longer - the price has been like this for a while now