Templeton Emerging Marke... Share Discussion Threads

[lollipop3] 26/2/2010 22:12

Does Mark Mobious manage this fund?

[restassured] 26/2/2010 17:19

Have the emerging markets finally started to emerge?

[dasv] 22/2/2010 14:24

if being up to its neck in debt equates to this then yes.

[restassured] 22/2/2010 13:49

Th one thing that seems to resonate is that emerging markets are where the growth and the future lie.
One gets the feeling that europe is old and dying.

[dasv] 17/2/2010 10:03

Judging by point and figure, a re-test of previous highs is likely.

[restassured] 17/2/2010 09:53

Hopefully the correction is all but over and we can resume the upward march.

[dasv] 08/2/2010 10:52

Yep I don't need any more gearing than I have. My current portfolio is 35% cash and the remainder seems to track FTSE100 x2 or x3 despite using no spreadbets/cfds or leveraged ETFs.

[restassured] 08/2/2010 10:09

The last thing you need in these markets is any kind of amplification.
There is just too much uncertainty about.

If I make a 15% return for the year on these I will be perfectly happy.

Stay safe!

[carterit] 08/2/2010 09:57

The point i was making was,that IF you think that TEM will regain its recent
high at some point this year,then the gain from here (475 to 550) is approx 15%.

If that is going to hold true,then it will also be a reasonable bet that the NYSE ETF for emerging markets (EDC) will also get somewhere near its recent high ( 150),and that being the case,as its a 3 x leveraged product,the gain from its current position (94) will give you are far greater gain (ie 60%).

Of course,if markets continue to fall,then you loss will also be magnified.

I am just in the camp that thinks that the emerging market funds WILL at some point this year reach and exceed their recent highs - and while i continue to hold TEM as a core holding,i do tend to dip into this ETF when there has been a larger dip than usual - and then profits made are used to buy more of the likes of TEM,JRS,BRWM,JII

[arja] 06/2/2010 19:14

true, but any stock is worth a short when dow plunging assuming it is liquid and tight spread . It rules out a lot of stocks but probably CFD and spreadbet providers do not allow it in such stocks ( maybe even TEM ! )

[iomhere] 05/2/2010 09:53

This trust has been long term upwards, outperforming the indices. That means if you chance your arm on a short you are hoping to catch one of its down blips. However, given its record, the probability of success is less than half and that means, even without the burden of incidental cost, you will lose your stake if you continue with such a strategy. So, I reckon there's no historical basis for trying to short this one.

[porsche boxster] 04/2/2010 14:02

Thanks, carterit.

Guess I'm a traditional kind of investor who prefers to hold the units long rather than taking positions on ETFs/spreads.

Appreciate your thoughts though.

PB

[dasv] 03/2/2010 11:07

carterit - you can trade TEM on a spreadbet/CFD platform if you want - can get as much leverage as required. I guess the finance cost of the leverage would eat into gains but it's still a possibility especially for short term moves or even going short on TEM.

[carterit] 03/2/2010 09:35

PB - if you like TEM,have you thought of the 3 x leveraged ETF direxion funds on the NYSE eg ticker EDC (for the Bull) and EDZ (for the bear).

This is based on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index,and however that performs the EDC will replicate it x 3.

So if you are an active trader and think Emerging Markets are in an upward trend,EDC rewards you a lot more (mind you it can be painful if you call it wrong).

However,using this recent consolidation as an example,most emerging market funds are off approx 10% over the last couiple of weeks,but EDC is off by 30% (ie 3 x 10),and had consequently fallen from $150 to $102.Now if we think emerging markets will get back to where they were at some stage,it means EDC could make a 50% gain (ie 102 back to 150) in pretty short order.

Not for the faint hearted,but worth considering.

[porsche boxster] 29/1/2010 15:39

Topped up yesterday. Still think this has some way to go.

[dasv] 28/1/2010 22:59

current NAV is 523p

[restassured] 26/1/2010 10:42

Daily Telegraph today


Templeton Emerging Markets

502.5p, +2p


Questor says BUY

Are emerging markets in a bubble or not? This is the debate that has been raging for a couple of months now. Although there is the chance that a bubble may emerge, Questor feels we are not there yet – and Citigroup agrees.

"Asset price gains in emerging markets have been particularly strong recently, although we're not convinced that it's right to talk about bubbles just yet," according to economist David Lubin. "There is little to suggest that the price appreciation we've seen in emerging equity markets exhibits the kind of characteristics seen in previous equity market bubbles," he added

However, this does not mean it is all plain sailing. By their nature, emerging markets are volatile and risky. There is a valuation risk once stimulus packages are withdrawn later this year.

Valuations are also likely to be supported by a wave of money as investors continue to releverage into risk positions. Some commentators have suggested selling part of their holdings and running with the rest of the investment. This is a perfect strategy for cautious investors.

However, for now Questor is comfortable maintaining a buy stance on Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, which was recommended on January 5 last year and is up 78pc compared with a market up 16pc.

As of January 22 the funds net asset value stood at 542.97p.

[dasv] 25/1/2010 11:24

RNS Number : 9850F
Templeton Emerging Markets IT PLC
22 January 2010

?
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC
Quarterly Portfolio Insight
Three months to 31 December 2009
Summary of investment objective
The Company seeks long-term capital appreciation through investment in companies
operating in emerging markets or whose stocks are listed on the stock markets of
such countries.


Company characteristics (31/12/09)
Fund launch date 12/06/1989
Benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets
Index (in GBP)
Lead manager Mark Mobius
Total Net Assets GBP1.84b
Market Capitalisation GBP1.73b
Gearing 100.0%
TER 1.36%
Pricing information (31/12/09)
NAV (Cum-Income) 557.5p
Share price 524.0p
Discount to NAV (Cum-Income) 6.0%
Current Yield (net) 1.1%
Pricing information (Cum-income--12 months to 31/12/09)
Highest NAV 561.1p
Lowest NAV 264.0p
Highest share price 527.0p
Lowest share price 235.8p

For the most up-to-date information, please visit www.temit.co.uk.
Market Overview (All figures are based in sterling)
* During 2009, emerging markets experienced a surge after significant falls in
2008. This was a result of many factors, most significantly, the rapid increase
in money supply and liquidity supplied by governments to prevent an economic
depression. In sterling terms, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 59% in
2009, leading to a huge influx of funds into emerging markets. In the first 11
months of 2009, emerging markets recorded nearly US$75 billion in net inflows,
about 40% more than the record high in 2007.
* That is not to say that there haven't been some anxieties. A recent temporary
setback was the announcement by Dubai World of a six-month debt payment
standstill. Markets rebounded quickly after neighbouring Abu Dhabi provided
funds to help repay debts. In general, as long as global money supply continues
its upward trend, we believe the bullish sentiment in emerging markets can be
sustained.



* We could see more money being directed into emerging markets in the next 10
years as investors realise that they can buy good value at reasonable prices.
Rapid developments in emerging markets should allow markets such as China,
Brazil, Russia and India to become some of the world's most important and
influential countries.

Investment Outlook
Our outlook for 2010 is optimistic. We believe that emerging markets are in a
secular bull trend and the general direction of emerging markets is positive.
Many countries have already returned to growth and we expect that growth to
continue. However, volatility is still with us. Risks, such as the inability of
governments to control the derivatives markets, loss of confidence, over or poor
regulation, adoption of protectionist measures and abandonment of the market
economy philosophy do exist. Therefore, we must pay attention to valuations and
long-term earnings growth prospects in order to avoid buying or holding
expensive stocks. Current valuations are below the five-year high valuations and
are not excessive.


We keep in mind that every bull market will have corrections and with the active
developments in derivatives, those corrections can be large. Our optimism for
emerging markets is founded on: (1) growing investor confidence in equities, (2)
strong fund inflows, (3) the search for higher returns in the face of low
interest rates, (4) relatively higher GDP growth, (5) the accumulation of
foreign exchange reserves, (6) relatively lower debt levels, and (7) the high
level of money supply globally. We believe all of these factors make emerging
markets attractive to investors.

[dasv] 22/1/2010 17:08

I had a limit buy at 505 which triggered today. Let's see if it holds up or this is the big reversal.

[dasv] 07/1/2010 11:15

no idea about any seller HoggetWood.

Geo-break down and NAV yesterday

[hoggetwood] 07/1/2010 10:42

Price drop seems a bit weird in view of TEM's blueness this morning. Can one infer that there's a big sell in the background?

[dasv] 06/1/2010 15:23

ffs - here we go again.

"I am really not sure a chart can tell you what a consumer in Brazil is doing."
of course it can't.

It can tell you about momentum and support and resistance though which is what point and figure shows you.

check out the targets given in mid october in those P&F charts:- 547, 549. Now reached.

Next stop 621, 630

[restassured] 06/1/2010 14:52

I am really not sure a chart can tell you what a consumer in Brazil is doing.


I would be very surprised if TEM is not over 700p by year end.

[dasv] 06/1/2010 12:49

I've added some more. Here is my post from 15 October 2009 which I ended up having to defend.

----

5Magic: charts as requested.

From the various methods of calculating upside targets, we have potential resistance at 547, 549 etc.

Retracement could go to previous resistance at 488.

Fibb extension next stop is 573.

Daily P&F active target is 630. Weekly has 621 so low 600's probably on the cards if you are patient.

support and resistance:-




fibb extensions






weekly p and f with a smaller box size