Telit Communications Share Discussion Threads

[bbmsionlypostafter] 23/11/2017 02:18

If you are going to post links make them live by capitalizing any of the letters in 'http'.

[stevedevuk] 22/11/2017 23:06

You are correct, I assumed since I put in Telit that the modules would be Telit but actually they are STMicro and various others.
As I said I first heard of Telit through their sigfox kits. Although I see they are developing all sorts of modules. The protocols are mostly "software" in that they are programming code baked into chips.
hxxps://partners.sigfox.com/companies/telit
I read about Sierra Wireless but they seemed overvalued.
hxxps://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/19/why-investors-are-paying-a-premium-for-sierra-wire.aspx
Anyway I am not too sad about losing out with Telit, I did exceedingly well with Versarien.

[frazboy] 22/11/2017 19:24

stevedevuk

Thanks. Interesting post.

First, a correction to my previous post, there are 4 distributors which I would put in a potential top 10 for Telit, linked to from its website. These are:

hxxp://www.roundsolutions.com/
hxxp://www.rutronik.com/
hxxp://www.arrow.com/
hxxp://www.semiconductorstore.com/Telit/

There's also an arrowasia distributor/website but I'm treating that as being the same as arrow.

Of the first website you quote (it is a Telit distributor), I made the following observation: "About 80 products, no recent LTE modules". Having looked again, I don't see any reason to think that they do a huge amount of Telit business but the website is without a doubt genuine - it's one of the better ones. Interestingly the other website isn't listed as a distributor by Telit and when I enter the URL you pasted I get 15 results, but none are manufactured by Telit. If I'm being a bit thick, then please correct me.

I actually did quite a bit more digging around than I've described above. I queried the DNS servers to check the registration data for most of the Asian websites, but the information was inconclusive but did nothing for my confidence in the company.

I see that one of the remaining shorters has reduced their position (OLD MUTUAL, down by 0.13%), it'll be interesting to see if this trends continues - another Hedge Fund exiting. I'm short until there is a material change in position - this could of course come tomorrow in the update, we shall see. I'm not ruling out that the reason the trading update is delayed is there is significant news which is awating confirmation - who knows, perhaps even a bid for the company but I think it's incredibly unlikely to be at a premium to the current SP, but that is why I've guaranteed the stop, this company never ceases to surprise.

[stevedevuk] 22/11/2017 18:09

I accept the point by Frazboy about DYOR. It was my own fault I lost nerve.
Regarding Telit products, here are some searches:
hxxps://www.digikey.co.uk/products/en/rf-if-and-rfid/rf-receivers/870?k=telit
They have several thousand telit RF receivers in stock.

hxxps://eu.mouser.com/Search/Refine.aspx?Keyword=Telit
Several thousand Telit components in stock.

I first came across Telit when looking into sigfox low power WAN.

[frazboy] 22/11/2017 13:58

I'll second that owenski.

For what it's worth, here's some information on the distributors linked to from the company's website...

There are 81 countries or regions listed, with a little overlap, but a reasonable working figure is 80 and only about 50ish of those have distributors listed against them. There appear to be approximately the following number of unique distributors per area.

European Distributors: 22
Americas Distributors: 9
Middle East and Africa: 4
Asia and RoW: 26

My simple analysis (I don't speak Mandarin/Cantonese/Korean) of these distributor suggests that there appear to be less than a handful of them that you can log onto and make online purchases of Telit components. Many of them are simply static web pages, with phone numbers/email addresses, and quite a few (but a minority) link back to the Telit website. Even when you can order components online, many have a long lead time which does not square with the inventory on the company's balance sheet. This extract is from the company's 14th August statement:

"Specifically the Board is satisfied with the status of its distributors which contributed approximately 24% of Group revenues in the year ended 31 December 2016 with the ten largest accounting for approximately 61% of the total distributor turnover"

So, according to the company, these distributors provide about $95m of turnover, and the top 10 provide approximately $60m. Having carried out the review, I can suggest who 3 (edit: 4) (of the distributors are, but not the other 7, but as I say I'm not linguistically talented, I would expect there to be a few Asian distributors in that count.

So, back to dangersimpsons post, investing is all about assessing probabilities, I've done my assessment, and I think the downside risk is greater than the upside too. But I happily admit I could be wrong, and this analysis totally fails to take into account how the industry works e.g is it normal to email or call to buy in bulk (due to discounting for example) or do only retail punters order online, and they tend to buy only small amounts? But the vast majority of the websites listed are hugely underwhelming in their technical proficiency.

It's a gamble (but hopefully a calculated one!).

[owenski] 22/11/2017 11:32

Good post dangersimpson

[dangersimpson2] 22/11/2017 11:29

No one knows where any share price is going in the short term and no one knows what any company is truly worth (since so much of the value is based on future outcomes) so listening to others opinions is always going to lead you astray. You have to learn to think probabilistically. This means that you will regularly get your analysis and process right and make a loss (or miss a gain) - that's what makes investing challenging but fun.

For TCM specifically, if all the distributors they list on their website are real independent companies, and they can manage to return to rapid growth, and they can manage to generate free cash flow, and have a sustainable competitive advantage then the company will be worth more than today's market cap.

Given the current valuation (fwd P/E = 20) & concerns with corporate governance then if any one of those factors doesn't happen they are likely to be worth a lot less than their current market cap. Therefore probabilistically I see the risk very much to the downside but who knows what the real outcome will be. I am pretty certain no amount of amateur TA will change that outcome though.

[frazboy] 22/11/2017 08:47

Stevedevuk - instead of blaming others for your lack of investment conviction why don't you do your own research and act on it? I've done mine and acted on it (more than a beer money short now, and with a guaranteed stop)

Now, where's this trading update?

Best of luck, long or short

[swisslog] 21/11/2017 22:26

Bwakem are you willing to tell what is the stock loan fee in the case of Telit? You told you had to close your short position. I think interest rate used is quite high.

[stevedevuk] 21/11/2017 22:24

Geesh people are still talking Telit down while the price just climbs steadily. Someone here mentioned "80p beckons" not so long ago. Just forgot to put a 1 or 2 in front of it. I lost my nerve and sold out due to all the claptrap chat here. Wish I had stayed in now.

[dangersimpson2] 21/11/2017 16:59

no change:



The borrow is back though which is good news.

[swisslog] 21/11/2017 15:22

Volumes are ok and bigger in uptrend. Does anybody has updated figures of shorts?

[wiseacre] 21/11/2017 11:54

There are so many red flags and the fact that, apart form the little deals from the bulletin board morons, the volume has dried up smells bad. I can envisage a big drop in share price and if I was a holder would be worried by the delay in any announcement.

[swisslog] 20/11/2017 20:07

Talking about a plethora comment last Friday. Maybe it is just a plethora of shorts melting or how do you see this who are monitoring shorts. If no changes some money has been burned and a pile of collaterals are increasing.

[swisslog] 20/11/2017 19:55

Share is in good momentum. Price: Up-consolidation-up. Volumes high-low-high.
Good pattern technically. Less resistance levels when going up. 180 seems to be support level. I might be wrong but wouldnt like to be short at the moment.

[wiseacre] 17/11/2017 13:47

Doubt it. Apart from plethora of usual small bargains of the BBM's, volume has slumped.

[a1samu] 17/11/2017 11:45

The climbing share price is anticipating something.

The end of the week or good news all round?

[frazboy] 16/11/2017 11:43

wiseacre, I PM'd you a couple of days ago (if you're ignoring it that's fine, just so long as you know it's there).

[wiseacre] 16/11/2017 11:31

Delay in putting out an expected announcement is rarely a positive signal in the stockmarket

[a1samu] 16/11/2017 10:24

Just be prepared for the worst. It would help if their new Chairman to be appointed would accept promptly.

[frazboy] 16/11/2017 09:33

i don't know how long you've been watching these samu but the last trading update was very poor, and the share price fell heavily at the opening bell, as you might have expected, before rising to nearly the opening price within the hour, which is perhaps not what you would have expected. So, even if it is bad news, there has up to now at least been a buyer in the shadows!

[a1samu] 16/11/2017 08:52

Usually bad news is announced on a Friday!

The trading statement might well include a massive profit warning!?

The share-price is sliding big time and there is no news anticipated to reverse this trend.

[frazboy] 16/11/2017 08:29

I thought we might see the update today, as companies don't usually made announcements on Fridays, and Monday is the 20th, so is starting to look more like late than mid November.

[dangersimpson2] 14/11/2017 17:53

I challenge you to show any evidence that a 10-day momentum measure has any positive serial auto-correlation.

Here is a summary of the research that shows 30-day momentum has on average negative serial auto-correlation:

[a1samu] 14/11/2017 17:20

No momentum indicator would have told me to buy at 182 as the market closed today. My charts also told me to buy when my account was down over £700, but which closed on the day just -£50 odd. The macd indicator did tell me when to buy, some more. I do not know what tomorrow will bring but some good news will lift this even further. What a fantastic surprise the price jump was this afternoon.