Telford Homes Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 03/7/2019 07:06

Didn't see that coming...

[jaf111] 03/7/2019 07:04

Can’t believe this....an absolute steal for CBRE.....

[nocton] 08/6/2019 08:59

DT ask your question on Lemon Fool.

[cerrito] 30/5/2019 10:34

see that Shore have a fair value estimate of 355 and Peel Hunt a buy at 350.

[cerrito] 30/5/2019 10:31

Just seen Canaccord's take of quote no need to rush in unquote and a hold rating with a target price of 290 and that sums up my view that shares perfectly priced at the moment. Do not see myself buying or selling in the foreseeable future.

[hillofwad] 29/5/2019 16:50

Having stuck his neck out for last year forecasting well in advance he was always likelyto be updating with nothing more stronger than cautious optimism


A combination of delays,planning and construction outside their control. Mix in private sales falling off the cliff and the train stopped firmly in its tracks
Fear not !!!!

The important bit of news is the monster at 9 Elms starts on site next month which will feed the HQ machine now moving up towards £30m pa


So the first news we will hear of any additional revenue is when deals are done which will be very soon

Plenty of money in the Tommy to keep the banks at bay .Steady as she goes

[makinbuks] 29/5/2019 11:24

I agree with the two last posts. Messaging could be a lot better and clearer while the rating is undemanding. Moving back to NAV at £3.33 would be fair

[llef] 29/5/2019 07:45

18/19 results ok, but they are very weasely about prospects for 19/20.
all they say is

"No change to the Group's profit before tax expectations for FY 2020"
and
"There have been no changes to our profit before tax expectations for FY 2020 since the Group's trading update in February 2019."

so looking back at feb update you see

"Programme delay of six months at City North, outside of the Group's control, expected to defer £15 million of profit between FY 2020 and FY 2021 such that profit before tax in FY 2020 is anticipated to be significantly below FY 2019"

so profits next year will be dowm, and they dont have the courage to say so explicity, and explain why - its a bit pathetic frankly.

[18bt] 29/5/2019 07:34

No great surprises in results at first glance and 2020 aspirations unchanged. Current PER 7.1x, 5.6% yield. Expect a little upside say to 8x and 5% yield, say 340p.

[bwakem] 28/5/2019 17:27

Interesting uncrossing action.

[glawsiain] 28/5/2019 13:35

AU1: I suspect its more to do with bovis' attempt to buy the building arm of galliford:

[aimingupward2] 28/5/2019 12:28

It seems that there is confidence ahead of the results and outlook tomorrow.

[hillofwad] 18/5/2019 11:57

Porsche

You have set the scene for high barriers to entry into the London market and TEF occupy a unique position straddling private/BTR/affordable/social housing sectors

The arrival of Khan has done SFA to shortening timescales for passage through planning
Greystar need no reminding that its been 2 years since they shelled out £100m and still no sign of construction activity on site.

The current game is all about damage limitation and preserving valuable capital .The fact that TEF have entered the vaults of not one but two well heeled BTR partners will take the pressure of having to secure external finance
Sites for BTR come with other benefits for TEF a good chunk of affordable and possibly some private thrown into the mix

TEF still managed the last crash well still managing to turn a profit

FY20 heralds the completion of New Garden Quarter where they have already got over 85% away of the 183 apartments in challenging conditions Many over the £600k threshold of Help 2 Buy


Balfron shortly to be launched and the remainder of City North

Very happy to invest at the current valuation of c£200m

[dr_smith] 14/5/2019 12:23

Rimau1: I am surprised you post a reasoned response to for me a long filtered poster. Use the "view posts" and you will see no credible reasoning or debate, only disparaging comments for all and sundry.

[rimau1] 14/5/2019 11:49

Dividend won’t be cut, and no return to 2008 but agree with the rest of your bear case. However thats all generic to any housebuilder. A balanced view should see that TEF are growing their build to rent proposition fast, private sales are less than 50% and TEF are priced at book value. Along with Countryside I think if you want to hold a housebuilder you hold these two because build to rent and affordable housing are two fast growing sub sectors, rising costs are being offset by more efficient building techniques such as offsite modular factory construction. All IMO, decent entry point in both stocks.

[porsche1945] 13/5/2019 13:35

Dividend will be cut, building costs rising, shortage of labour with brexit sxxtshow fiasco and London market tanking, builders could be heading back to 2008 prices, when they go, they really go.

[hillofwad] 26/4/2019 05:17

DIVIDENDS
Unlikely to be a cut for the FY just ended.The BODS are mindful that profits are falling short of original target for a variety of reasons so will be maintaining their policy of distributing a third So they might decide to keep it at last years level or make a small reduction

FY 20 they have already flagged up a profits fall -the majority of this is due to some construction delays to accomodate TFL at Finsbury Park station on City North .However this is only gratification deferrred as it just spills over into H1 FY 21

They should be on stream before the end of this FY on some further BTR projects which will do wonders for cash flow and head of at the gate the requirement for a capital raise or substantial dividend cut.Very likely they will be maintainig dividends beacuse of this

Much of course will be dependent on the success or otherwise of selling stock at Gallions Point which so far has been relatively disappointing.

Due to be released a litle later in the year when its nearing completion allowing the Help 2 Buyers to get stuck in. These are attractively priced so fingers crossed The remaining apartments at City North are similarly awaiting launching to the same buyers . Every confidence with this well located development that this should be OK

TW annouced yesterday the cost of materials.This is likely to be also impacting TEF

Current share price fully reflecting all the risks with a healthy yield

[porsche1945] 25/4/2019 08:49

Dividend cut or capital raise coming up for these.

[johnroger] 24/4/2019 17:00

Telford Homes Plc

('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')

Notice of Final Results

Telford Homes Plc (AIM: TEF), the London focused residential property developer, announces that it will report its financial results for the year ended 31 March 2019 on Wednesday, 29 May 2019.

A briefing for analysts will be held at 9.00 a.m. on Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at the office of Buchanan, 107 Cheapside, London EC2V 6DN.

[hillofwad] 10/3/2019 10:40

What you have to bear in mind that planningwise BTR doesn't arrive alone; It still doesn't circumnavigate the Boroughs demands for 40% affordable

What it does mean for sites with Invesco especially whose min requiremnt is 200 +bed much larger sites are needed This will open doors to some very big developments for TEF which were previously outside their comfort zone


So TEF will be picking up also further profitable work building affordable housing and possibly some higher margin private sale elements into the mix too

Its not the one you go for but the one you pick up on the way


This has really elevated them into Premier League status