Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 05/12/2018 10:23

Dr, it's a hard Brexit fading - yesterday's parliamentary defeats for
the government.

[dr_smith] 05/12/2018 10:19

Don't know why we went down, but all builders circa4 to 5% up today, though now same as 1 week ago for TW. I don't see anything in todays news to signal a trigger point for a collective "up", so can only assume it is market manipulators getting back in after playing games to depress.

[stewart64] 05/12/2018 10:18

I'm assuming the bounce today may be to do with the Grieve amendment rendering No deal unlikely. Not many shorts unwinding imo..shorting a 14% covered dividend and the strongest balance sheet in the FTSE would not be the Institutional norm or make sense.

[markdallara] 05/12/2018 10:15

Yes EI, maybe. I am down all over the place including here however after last nights news I thought we might finally see a change and a bit surprised to see Proactive et al still suggesting doom and gloom and indices responding similarly. We shall see. 10% of my portfolio here so unlikely to add any more just now.

[tlobs2] 05/12/2018 10:06

up10, I did warn you yesterday ...........

"The problem with basing your long or short investing strategy just on share price movements is that you could wake up in the morning and the price is +/- 5% and you are deep in the brown stuff :-)"

[clarky5150] 05/12/2018 10:03

Nice to take that tin hat off this morning. Was 130 the ‘how can I lose’ bottom? Time will tell.

[essentialinvestor] 05/12/2018 10:02

We are up for a reason today folks.

Yesterday further removed hard Brexit from the table.

The sovergnity of parliament coming to the fore with the HoC
taking back control.

And every Brexiteer prizes the sovereignty of parliament, ironic eh.

[up10] 05/12/2018 09:52

LOL

If I was short, I wouldn't be the slightest worried, as TW. is going a lot lot lower.

Go on buy some more, suckers!

LOL

[tlobs2] 05/12/2018 09:44

Christ that up10 has got it bad.

Posting garbage at ten to eleven at night and then back on here posting more garbage this morning. Surely there must be something better to do at eleven o'clock at night.




What's that smell ........ somebody's @rse is on fire with a burning short this morning :-)

[jugears] 05/12/2018 09:42

up 10 if they go up or down I will be very smug anythink under £1.80 is a bargain long term here. If they fall I will by some more, Perhaps the markets will follow the lead of the directors who also think TW is a bargain, These like myself look past 18 months-3 years.

[kron76] 05/12/2018 09:31

Posts starting a finishing with lol and no actual helpful angle on say fundamentals? comparing the housing market with crypto? now there's a lol

Not actually sure how these things have any effect other than to annoy really so going to do some filtering.

Good shout on cash position Stewart64! and blimey knew the div had gone above 9 but yeah it was around that figure back in the summer trading at circa 1.70 per share so at 1.30 ish looking very attractive.

[jugears] 05/12/2018 09:24

Im just glad that after my meeting with Tw, I bought 50K of shares here. already in profit.

[marksp2011] 05/12/2018 08:35

Spoon

Good try :)

Are buyers drying up? Buyers dry up when mortgages dry up and, that hasn't happened yet

the land bank hasn't really changed for a couple of years and the prices and so valuations haven't been rising
lack of buyers? I am buying again anyone with a decent time horizon will be buying now
funds are notoriously sticky - UK equity income is looking very good value at the moment compared with other markets globally. We are in a political storm at the moment. These things pass
there is no evidence of "panic" redemptions from funds. Your arguement relates to all shares. If anything, the first things sold are those that can be sold profitably so TW is unlikely to be top of the queue :(

[spoon4] 05/12/2018 08:12

No debt but what about unsold stock hanging around as buyers dry up.

What about the falling value of the land bank.

What about the lack of other new shareholders buying to push the shares up

What about funds being FORCED to sell ANY stock so they can pay out redemptions.

[marksp2011] 05/12/2018 08:07

I will be buying TW today
yield without the special is OK and there is no debt this time around. You might need to wait three years but you should see 30% compound plus divis over that period

[spoon4] 05/12/2018 08:03

Undersupply of new houses.

Did you not notice, that disappears in a downturn.?

[tony2119] 04/12/2018 22:51

Go on, enlighten us.

[up10] 04/12/2018 22:48

If you think they are the only determining factors, then its back to school for you.

[tony2119] 04/12/2018 22:44

Based on what?

In favour

- Brexit
- High household debt
- Very very high repayment & debt to household income ratios

Against

- Policy support (planning regs & HtB)
- Very easy credit
- Undersupply of new housing
- Foreign capital

I can see why it might not be an attractive investment for many reasons but it can take decades for a 'bubble' to burst. I don't get why you think it's now. I'm uninterested in the London resale market because if anything there is a negative correlation between London prices and volumes and homebuilder profits if the past 5 years are anything to go by...

[up10] 04/12/2018 22:38

Who knows where it will end.

But we are at the beginning of a significant downturn in house prices.

It's foolish to think it won't be a UK wide downturn.

[tony2119] 04/12/2018 22:36

No, I think prices will fall in some parts of the country. Just not by 65%.

[up10] 04/12/2018 22:33

You all exemplify the housing problem.

It's only ever up up up, but the wheel has turned.

You can't see the wood for the trees.

[tony2119] 04/12/2018 22:29

TW holders - why subject yourself to this? Ignore these guys, unless they post something genuine that makes you reconsider your position. Overvalued by 65% at least blah blah blah he says, achingly hoping he can make amends for not buying a house 10 years ago and redeem things by jumping in when homes sell for a song.

Well it's not going to happen mate, I'm sorry. Maybe you get 10% off here and there. Byt the big trends are a headwind for you - hxxp://www.cityam.com/270147/uk-foreign-investment-hits-record-high-investors-shun.

The rest of the world still wants to live here and, Brexit mess or not, have continued, will continue, to move money here. That will support housing.

Lastly I wouldn't check TW's share price tomorrow as it will be a shocker but in 6 months I'll be rewarded.

Night all.