Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[fhealey] 03/12/2018 09:21

Only 3 fallers in the FTSE 100 this morning. BT, Royal Mail and guess who? I repeat, what a dog this share is.

[up10] 03/12/2018 09:19

EVERYONE knows housing is over valued.

It's only going one way from here, DOWN.

Therefore TW. are in trouble!

[m4rtinu] 03/12/2018 09:12

Not a great start to the week, given FTSE 100, 250 are up 2% and 1.3%.

[marksp2011] 03/12/2018 09:07

Spoon

"our current five-year expectations, and in current market conditions"

If the expectations change or the market changes the numbers will change. No-one has made any commitment to do anything beyond 2019.

being negative is one thing, being misleading is another. Please stick to the facts

[steeplejack] 03/12/2018 08:47

“At this rate your get a four bed for the price of a one bed today by 2023”
To extrapolate the trend to that extent is to forecast a 1930s style recession.

As for the questionable nature of suggesting that they plan to pay special dividends at last years level,they are “special”; dividends and as such there is not the same commitment as maybe attached to regular dividend payments.If the company wasn’t to pay a special dividend at the same level as last year,it wouldn’t be referred to as a cut in dividend as such.
Until the macro environment is clearer,potential buyers of building shares will sit on their hands.I sold out higher at the end of last week.Until we have clarity on Brexit,potential institutional buyers of building shares are likely to sit on their hands.I’ll look to buy back in when there’s better visibility.I won’t be alone.

I see you’re a “new boy” spoon4 on the ADVFN site,joining on the 25th Nov.I’m always a tad sceptical of newcomers who suddenly appear with knocking copy but I suppose we all have our own agenda.

[american idiot] 02/12/2018 22:08

Reconfirmation of enhanced returns to shareholders from 2019

-- Special dividend of GBP350 million (c.10.7p pence per share) to be paid in July 2019 subject to shareholder approval (GBP340 million and 10.4 pence per share paid in July 2018)

-- From 2019, increased Ordinary Dividend Policy of approximately 7.5% of Group net assets and at least GBP250 million per annum through the cycle (up from 5% and at least GBP150 million per annum), bringing 2019 total dividends to c.GBP600 million or c.18.3 pence per share (2018: c. GBP500 million)

-- Based on our current five-year expectations, and in current market conditions, we expect special dividend payments to remain comparable to the 2018 and 2019 payments

..........

So, a shareprice of £1.34 with 2019 divis totalling 18.3p gives a yield of 13.6%

Seems too good to be true. What is it I am missing ?

(Thinking of tucking some of these away in my ISA)

[jugears] 02/12/2018 19:30

Spoon I think you are being very dramatic, Lets wait & see where brexit goes next week ,I can't see that Corbyn will want to be responsible for bringing the country down if he has any plans for Labour to get in to power in say the next 50 years, Better in my opinion to stand by May & then seek a leadership challenge because I can't see us getting a better deal than we have got & he certainly won't get a better deal, But we will just have to see how it all pans out over the coming months there is nothing you & I can do about it except disagree on here of course! IMHO time to get it done with & get back to running the country.

[spoon4] 02/12/2018 19:01

Jugears.

Love to know what these smart directors are going to do.

Slash prices, to grab sales off the other big boys.

Sell off parts of the landbank at 30% less than a few months ago.

PX deals and load up with second hand homes,(that are even harder to sell,) be it at cheaper prices.

Lay off 50% of their staff.

Slash the Divi to 0.5P

[jugears] 02/12/2018 18:15

Wfl, exactly London & the south, Spoon I think you are just panicking like the rest of the country, I don't think we will see any prolonged housing crash & does it really matter if margins are squeezed short term ? Think long term, even if demand slows for the next few years , when it does pick up there will be a massive housing short fall to fill & I'm afraid there will only be The likes of Tw & other volume house builders to fill the gap as it is very difficult to start a new volume house building company from scratch these days, you may even start to see some of the smaller regional house builders going out of business as these tend to come under financial pressure more than the big boys. I am confident that we have an excellent management team at TW & more than capable of weathering any storm. It is worth noting that once house sales pick up & they will do, it doesn't take very long to start rapidly increasing profits. I will be continuing to by TW shares on the lows & look forward to reaching my future target prices as I think Tw have a very good long term prospects & whilst help to buy is still around I am sure we will see even more people take advantage of this after Brexit. Whatever the deal!

[spoon4] 02/12/2018 13:43

A few lines about margins.

A good builder makes 15P in the pound clear.

One has to understand when prices fall just 5%, it’s a straight 1/3 off your profits as any savings to offset this, can take years to come through.

By that time,prices are off another 5% and so on.

Stock houses are a disaster the need heating, cleaning,to keep them attractive

Builders have not had stock houses for the last few years the money tied up in them is yet another few % off margins.

[spoon4] 02/12/2018 13:28

I can also tell you prices are falling very fast in the SE for new homes.

One can buy an estate five bed house from one of the top 6 Housebuilders for rhe price of a four bedroom house on the same estate in the spring .

Around £75,0000 cheaper.

At this rate your get a four bed for the price of a one bed today by 2023.

[spoon4] 02/12/2018 13:22

Jugears.

To sell houses in large numbers, 15,000 plus here per year, you require.

Confidence

Flat or rising prices.

A product that your buyers can afford

At this stage in the cycle, this company has none of the above.

[jugears] 02/12/2018 11:02

sorry spoon I don't know of any (major) purely house builders that are not connected to construction going bust in the last 30 years, Sales other than London & the south are holding up very well & IMHO Will continue to do so, I'm afraid the writing for London & the south has been on the wall for years with the rest of the country lagging way behind in house price inflation terms. TW were not helped by the government? if you mean help to buy didn't that start 3 or 4 years later ?

[spoon4] 01/12/2018 21:03

You fail to understand Housebuilders run a production line and need constant sales at the end of that line.

Sales are drying up in London and the Home Counties and it’s spreading fast.

Then comes the discounting

[spoon4] 01/12/2018 21:00

I think you need to look back through the years and you will find heaps of builders that have gone down the pan.

This company was saved by lower rates and government help.

[jugears] 01/12/2018 20:40

Not many house builders have ever been on the verge of going bust other than in the financial crisis caused by extortionate takeovers, a lesson badly learnt & will never be repeated.

[jugears] 01/12/2018 20:40

Not many house builders have ever been on the verge of going bust other than in the financial crisis caused by extortionate takeovers, a lesson badly learnt & will never be repeated.

[spoon4] 01/12/2018 20:35

Agreed one can make very large profits from house building.

The very simple trick is to buy Housebuilders when they are on the verge of going bust.

After 3 placings here over, the next 5 plus years, come back and take a look.

[zeppo] 01/12/2018 19:06

Whatever drives house price inflation the figures should be linked in one inflation figure.

For decades both main parties have driven the economy on house price inflation. Consumer spending has been driven by the feelgood factor that allows people take on debt.

Manufacturing has been neglected.

Eddie George on retiring as the first governor of the independent Bank of England said that he, the Treasury and Gordon Brown decided to drive the economy on house price inflation. But both main political parties have done it.
The 2008 recession was much worse because of banks selling 125% mortgages etc before the bubble burst.

We should be encouraged to invest in manufacturing and fiscal means used, if necessary, to stop the social evil of rising property prices.

My first of three homes was bought in the North in 1966 for twice my menial wage.

Where I live in the South East now, 10 times a menial wage would only buy a one bedroomed dwelling.

We are a divided society with youngsters having to pay for tertiary education, more than we did for their pensions and with little hope of home owning

Relatively few have a 'bank of mum and dad'.

z

[jugears] 01/12/2018 18:29

Zeppo housing inflation is driven purely by demand the only way to bring prices down is to build more as this is not going to happen for a long time yet so you can expect to pay at least 25% more for a house in ten years time, & IMHO Brexit could push them even higher.

[zeppo] 01/12/2018 13:30

Further falls forecast with No Deal Brexit etc.

In this for a few years now but consider house price inflation to be a social evil.

House price inflation should be in line with ordinary inflation.

Why do politicians lie and say they have inflation licked when house prices
are separated?

All new housing should be Carbon Neutral an have good sound insulation between homes(if semi or terraced)and between rooms.

Why not more grand terraces like Bath, Cheltenham, London, Bath etc. Detatched houses with no space even to put up a scaffold tower between them seem pointless and wasteful.

Some new estates are a visual embarrassment to see. Little boxes but detached little boxes.

British room sizes amongst the lowest in Europe?

z

[spoon4] 01/12/2018 11:21

The government keep pumping the cash into new homes, via the Housebuilders.

However those homeowners that took up the deals, ( over the last few years) will soon be up in arms, as values fall and the loans they took out, rise.