Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 15:21

Ken, yes take your point. I had a small amount of BDEV, very small, this am.
Expecting a wider market sell off, so not rushing to buy much atm.

[ken tennis] 05/9/2018 15:16

Essential if you think RDW are a good company then buy it for the year not just a week

[gbh2] 05/9/2018 14:55

165p may well become the support with a bit of luck upon closing.

[ken tennis] 05/9/2018 12:46

Jugears spot on the last catastrophe with the housing market started end of 2007 and ran through till end of 2009 before major improvements.

I have been in the construction industry most of my life and at the time this started I was involved with the infrastructure on a massive housing development on the outskirts of Bedford they only built around 90 houses out of a project of approximately 2500 properties as a result the houses that had been started where built as a shell to make them watertight from the elements and the project was shelved. I never went back to the project so have no idea when it was restarted but I would assume it was held up for a couple of years until things started to improve price wise. Like you say BKG are predominantly London builders which I thing will hurt them in this downturn much more that the diversified housing companies.
Have a good day.
Ken

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 12:24

Should have bought Redrow yesterday,
thought results looked very good as mentioned, but hesitated.

[jugears] 05/9/2018 10:42

Ess, Thanks I don't really follow BKG.

[jugears] 05/9/2018 10:41

Ken tennis thanks, I think investing long term with Tw is more important because the housing market goes in cycles, if this one is coming to an end for now I don't personally believe than any of the house builders sp's reached there true value this time round & therefore I see Substantial future growth in the sp, For now I am happy to purchase on the lows & take dividends to build my holding. I don't see Brexit or a down turn in the housing market having a major impact on any of the house builders other than lower profits, I think a lot of investors suddenly expect any down turn will plunge all the house builders in to losses & huge debt but I doubt that this will be the case. Before the financial crisis the house builders had expanded rapidly & taken on huge amounts of debt, this is now not the case & the house builders in my opinion are in a far better position to weather a down turn than they have ever been.When the financial crisis came houses reduced in value almost over night, But almost from day one Tw managed to reduce its huge debt,In what was one of the worst trading periods I have ever known. That to me is a better managed company than one that has taken advantage of a predicted booming London house market & has put all of there eggs in to that basket.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 10:20

BKG guided pre tax approx 30% Lower for 18/19 at the last FY results.

[jugears] 05/9/2018 10:10

Its a good job TW cover a wider graphical area than BKG because it sounds to me like there could be a future warning coming out of good old Berks.

[ken tennis] 05/9/2018 10:05

Jugears you made a very great point about investing long term, if your worried about the dips don't bother, also if you need the cash in a short period of time also don't bother because chances are you will either sell at a loss or on the other hand not make a substantial gain for your outlay and worry that you may lose.

Im not a professional investor by a long chalk but I do a fair amount of research before buying.
What I have invested in the stock market is money that I can afford to lose without the loss affecting my lifestyle.

I do have a holding in TW CRST and GFRD in the housing sector and believe these will do well over the next 4 years and paying a nice divi along the way.

ATB Ken and prosperous investing all

[speedsgh] 05/9/2018 07:29

From today's BKG Trading Statement...



"In the first four months of this new financial year, market conditions in London and the South East have remained consistent with those reported with the full year results in June. Pricing has remained robust as there is demand for good quality, well located homes that enhance communities and meet the local housing need.

In essence, this is a market that lacks urgency and London remains constrained by high transaction costs, restrictive income multiple limits on mortgage borrowing and prevailing economic uncertainty, accentuated by Brexit. These headwinds affect all segments of the market from home movers to downsizers and investors alike. A functioning housing market, where good new development can deliver much needed additionality across all tenures, requires conditions for growth and low barriers to entry which are currently absent from the housing market in London and the South East..."

[marksp2011] 05/9/2018 07:24

Whether it is "oversold" doesn't really matter if it is still being sold.

I don't see a bottom being set yet and we are still getting lower lows. There is a real uncertainty in the sector with help to Buy distorting the market and driving sales of new homes when the existing homes market is in the doldrums.

When HTB ends, it is going to be very very bloody for the HBs. It will work through and the underlying business look solid but, I think we are closer to the end than the beginning before that mayhem sets in. Bottom line is noone knows what the impact will be so there is a lot of risk involved here

[jugears] 04/9/2018 22:11

Essen ,Talking to one of my contacts there last week Crest appear to be doing ok just like all of my other house building customers, I wish I could say the same about my construction customers as this market has died a death this year.

[essentialinvestor] 04/9/2018 21:12

The next Crest update will be interesting.

[jugears] 04/9/2018 21:10

dD Having supplied to Tw for years I can well assure you they know more than most what they are doing, be it in London or any where else, you very clearly do not know this company at all. & I can personally say from experience BKG are know better than TW.

[disneydonald] 04/9/2018 19:22

Hi Jugs, the only point I am trying to make is that Wimps are committed to Central London ( zone 1 and 2). RDW confirmed that they only have a handful of units in that area. BDEV are out. BKG still in as they are the most committed, and know what they are doing. Wimps just trying to build a specialist unit and started 4 years ago. Timings little unfortunate. They have no option other than to see it through and these sites are expensive. I am suggesting that the market is reserving judgement. In the long run I am sure they will be successful, however at the moment the market is marking them down. The biggest issue is general uncertainty, re you know what. Just need patience.

[clarky5150] 04/9/2018 17:35

A 20% drop since divi has to be considered a reversal really. I must admit I didn’t expect to see low 160s again. I know we are only tracking with other sector stock but surely investors can see how oversold TW currently is. The whole fear from prolonged uncertainty on Brexit is causing more damage than if the government had told the EU to shove their union up their ar$e from the get go.

[gbh2] 04/9/2018 16:17

I Filtered Taffy at a very early stage so I've never really missed him/her :)

Jugears, I'll buy more TW at 160 and then 155 should the share price continue falling, however I'll be looking to move on with a good 2/3 of my holding before Christmas, rebuild ca April, May 2019 if the market looks right.

[essentialinvestor] 04/9/2018 15:56

Redrow results read very well to me, not holding atm,
And it can't buck a hard sell off for the sector.

[jugears] 04/9/2018 15:54

gbh if I am lucky enough to buy for now @153p I will be happy with that, I also have made more money out of Tw than any other share I have owned. I also purchase PIC Just after the shares crashed but decided to sell when I had doubled my money. As for Taffee I think he is still lurking somewhere on here don't you ?

[gbh2] 04/9/2018 15:19

The chartists will be looking at a bottom of 153p if this closes below 165p today.

[gbh2] 04/9/2018 15:17

fwiw I've been in and out of TW nearly every year since 2008, I've sitting on a good profit, in fact the best profit I've made from any compamy's shares, other than from PIC in 2000.

But as I'm not trying to build a pension pot whether I buy or sell at the right time is simply a matter of self satisfaction.

[wfl1970] 04/9/2018 15:09

"The best asset an investor can have" is loads of spare cash to throw at TW as the share price continues to be sold down :))

:)

[wfl1970] 04/9/2018 15:08

"It really f---ks me off short term investors that panick about the slightest fall in a share price".

FYI Jug, I invested here back in early 2012. I sold out in May pre ex-div.

I didn't panic, I sold as I was happy with my return and collected dividends during that time.

In the meantime, I'll decide what to do regarding my next investment strategy, it won't be based on fear of missing out.

I hope your strategy works for you, I'm happy with mine.

[gbh2] 04/9/2018 15:07

"The best asset an investor can have" is loads of spare cash to throw at TW as the share price continues to be sold down :))