Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2022 15:24

The housing newsflow and HB share price falling has been as predicted.

There will be the trolling sheep Beckers, Fenners, Imastu, angers who will turn up and like, um sheep, will post in hindsight when they think the tide is turning..
lol

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/11/2022 15:18

EI - 11079:

Yes, very tricky to forecast now that QE money is off the table, but one of the 'tells' is when bad news is released and the share don't fall. Not quite there yet, with PSN's fall today, but this one and others (RDW) showing more resilience. I guess watch the others and their trading statements.

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2022 14:29

There you go, sales slowing... Watch the demand fall and supply increase...
;-)


From PSN update this morning...

Contrary to Jugears comments following his meetings with their directors that they are busier than ever..



Help to buy ended to new applications just last week, 31st October. HBs made millions from the H2B scheme, so future sales due to that scheme are now lost.
20% of PSN completions for this year used H2B scheme, which is a significant number.

What scheme, if any, will the govn announce with their Autumn Statement next week, especially given they need to reduce borrowing and spending???

Cancellations up.

During GFC HB share price fell 80-90% after lenders were forecasting 10-15% drop in house prices. I was forecasting 40% drop, peak to trough, in some areas. I'm expecting similar this time.



""Rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainty are clearly impacting mortgage lending and customer behaviour and this is reflected in our recent weekly sales rates and forward sales position. Persimmon enters this more challenging period as a five-star builder, with average selling prices below the market average, high quality land holdings, and a robust balance sheet."

"While the Group remains well-positioned to deliver its full year volume expectations of between 14,500 and 15,000 units, the last six weeks have seen cancellation rates increase to 28% from 21% in the preceding 12 weeks from 1 July 2022, introducing some uncertainty."

"Help-to-Buy has now closed for new applications, and was utilised on c. 20% of completions in the year to date. "

[sunshine today] 08/11/2022 13:03

Hence higher rates to attract buyers

[sunshine today] 08/11/2022 13:03

No one wants to buy U.K. debt.

Gilt Yields Rise After Weak Demand at BOE Sale

08/11/2022 11:54am
Dow Jones News

FTSE 100
Index Chart

Tuesday 8 November 2022
Click Here for more FTSE 100 Charts.
Gilt Yields Rise After Weak Demand at BOE's Gilt Sale

1053 GMT - The Bank of England's medium-term gilt auction on Monday received weak demand and has resulted in a selloff in gilts, pushing yields higher, say ING analysts in a note. "Our debt strategy has been pointing out that investor demand is for shorter-dated gilts and that GBP6.25bn worth of gilt auctions later this week will not have helped the BOE's gilt auction," say the analysts. Yields on 10-year gilts trade at 3.618%, versus around 3.557% before the results of the BOE's auction were announced, according to Tradeweb. (miriam

[blackhorse23] 08/11/2022 12:59

Another interest rates hike coming https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-will-raise-interest-rates-again-says-chief-economist-huw-pill-jl28brvnz

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2022 12:31

tblobs2

"Given the increase in gas and electricity prices I think there will be a lot of buyers looking to buy new energy efficient properties."

New builds command a premium, which can be 20-25%.

25% can be £50k. It would take decades to cover the additional £1500-£2000 energy prices... lol


There's also govn grants for existing builds to improve them and make them more energy efficient.

Your house price figures are for March 2022!!! 8 months out of date!!!

Wake up at the back..
;-)

[tlobs2] 08/11/2022 12:05

As this BB highlights Jugears there are some idiots who post rubbish just for the sake of it.

Given the increase in gas and electricity prices I think there will be a lot of buyers looking to buy new energy efficient properties.

This from the ONS supports your theory about inside the M25 :-)


UK average house prices increased by 9.8% over the year to March 2022, down from 11.3% in February 2022.

The average UK house price was £278,000 in March 2022, which is £24,000 higher than this time last year.

Average house prices increased over the year in England to £298,000 (9.9%), in Wales to £206,000 (11.7%), in Scotland to £181,000 (8.0%) and in Northern Ireland to £165,000 (10.4%).

London continues to be the region with the lowest annual growth at 4.8%.

[jugears] 08/11/2022 11:28

tlobs, we have never been busier & are expanding & taking new staff on, but then there has also been the real world & the inside the M25 fantasy world!

[jugears] 08/11/2022 09:49

I see the mm's are bored already!

[essentialinvestor] 08/11/2022 09:18

We are now moving in to the second phase of this recessionary cycle where
a more pronounced slowdown in trading is reported, the first signs of weaker trading reported in early autumn. 2023 likely to see both profit warnings and dividend cuts
for many in the sector.

Sector share prices have been well ahead of weaker fundamentals to come
and flashing warning signs for much of 2022.

What makes the current cycle more tricky is a move to post ZIRP.

[jugears] 08/11/2022 08:59

Gay, update is tomorrow
Sceptical, it's more than priced in!

[gaygay3] 08/11/2022 08:57

Look at persimmon update today not looking good down 8% think TW update later this week so we could be down as well as today so not all priced in

[nicd] 08/11/2022 08:09

Just sing out if the divi will be cutOtherwise, will be hanging in

[scepticalinvestor] 08/11/2022 07:51

You sound desperate subshine. All of this is priced in

[sunshine today] 08/11/2022 07:24

It gets far worse.


-- Building safety provision expected to be increased to
GBP350m reflecting the broader scope demanded by Government,
additional developments becoming eligible and clearer
costings from pro-active engagement.
-- Previous capital return programme to be replaced with
new, forward looking capital allocation policy - which
balances sustainable returns for shareholders with the
need to invest in the Group's future success

[sunshine today] 08/11/2022 07:18

Umm

At last the first big builder shows how grim things are: ( PSN ).

2% off the price

10% on the build cost

Cancellation rates jump

Remember this is before the recession / Depression starts.

[lefrene] 07/11/2022 18:42

In the space of three days I found myself talking to two buy to let wanna be property magnates, who are now facing the reality of 6% rates. Both of them women, one with 5 properties the other with 3, and both previously high earners as a head teacher, and as a doctor. Neither seemed to realise that they are at the start of a major property downturn, and yet both are now seeing the rents fail to cover the variable rate loans. I didn't comment, other than suggest they might consider selling at least one of the properties to release capital to shore up the remainders. But no neither wanted to do that, peach convinced that the properties had an intrinsic value, rather than understand that the price of them arose from being directly linked to the amount of credit available. I wish them no ill, but if this goes like the 90's they'll wish they'd sold whilst they could.

[jugears] 07/11/2022 17:33

Not one of my sites closed so where were these imaginary ghost downs??????? Apart from one flat in Cardiff that has taken you 2 years to find!, where were the rest of the 40-50%????(which I see Walter Mitty has now increased by 10%!!!!) 15-20% would be very near the truth, lol oh lol.
I would expect Psn, Tw & vistry to be very cautious in there outlook at the moment but markets will recover whatever happens.

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2022 15:50

lefrene,

Absolutely. There were ghost towns during GFC. I'd wouldn't be surprised to see homes completed in a hurry just to complete the sale.

You'll notice some of the properties which fell 40-50%, peak to trough, during GFC was new build. New Build commands a premium and that premium is significantly reduced in a property market crash.


During GFC, HB share price fell 80-90%, even though lenders forecast 10-15% drop in house prices.

Let's see what HBs have to say in their updates. The interesting comments will be in the outlook.

[jugears] 07/11/2022 15:44

Sikh quite happy with my profit from easy jet thanks I'm not greedy

[lefrene] 07/11/2022 15:39

How long before we start to see half finished building prokjects? I recall plenty of them circa 91 to 95, people stuck in unsaleable houses because the builders had gone bust and there were no finished roads, or turfed front lawns. I knew one location where the local council took over, finished the houses as cheaply as possible and filled them with benefits ckaimants! Easily halving the values for those private buyers who had been early birds on the site. Feels like it's going to be a bloodbath, worse than the 90's.