Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 11/4/2021 14:49

Jug,

"the housing market has so far defied all the so called experts opinions but it's not rocket science is it, Low interest rates"
"it is very unlikely stamp duty holiday ending will have any effect"

The official HMRC figures show New Build house prices fell in Jan and Feb and comments from property experts and the HB themselves have expressed concerns over govn support, SD Hol ending.

Do you think the property experts petitioned the govn for an extension for fun?
Do you think the Chancellor extended SD hol for fun, despite previously claiming they won't do so?
Do you think the govn have introduced 95% backed mortgages for fun?

That tells me that property experts, inc HB, need govn support, SD hol and it's extension to keep the housing market moving.

Always best to read the official comments from official sources than speculative waffle on BBs.


Official Gov figures:


Dec:
Look at the figures, avg new builds prices falling on quarterly basis, in UK & London.

Average prices plus annual increase:
UK: £251,500, up 8.5%
New Builds: £327,486, up 6.3% (qtr change -0.7%)
Existing: £258,708, up 5.6%, (qtr change 1.1)


London: £496,066 up 3.5%
New Builds: £505,833, up 3.4% (qtr change -2.1%)
Existing: £492,362, up 4.4% (qtr change -0.7%)



Jan:

New Build prices in Jan were down 0.8%




"Property experts have warned up to a third of house sales could collapse if the Chancellor does not extend the stamp duty holiday period.

The pressure intensified last month when a group of Conservative Party MPs launched a campaign calling for the move to be permanently imposed in order to stimulate economic growth.

The Property Research Group argued the hugely unpopular stamp duty tax “hinders aspirationâ€5533; and discourages people from moving home."




Obviously official govn figures and property experts are wrong whilst you are right. Honest guv. lol
But then again you stated you don't pay any tax despite claiming to making millions...

[gbh2] 11/4/2021 08:11

"Now a complete irrelevance as time has clearly proven."

My thoughts exactly, which is why I never remove a Filter once applied.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 10/4/2021 13:38

An interesting exercise - posts 1700 through to 1809, notably 1792 and responses.

Culminating in this brilliance:




"Anyway, given your comments... I don't normally short but I have now taken a short position here..

Keep buying tlobs2... let's see what happens towards end of the year"


Oh dear...

[inaminute] 10/4/2021 13:21

Look back to the rubbish he posted when we were nearing £1. Absolute rubbish but of course we could only give our opinion of why he was wrong and why we were topping up. He never listened. Now a complete irrelevance as time has clearly proven.

[jugears] 10/4/2021 10:41

Very simple, filter his post as I have done, dont read his posts,or read & dont reply, we all have our own opinions, I have never been influenced by other poster, whilst there have been many uncertainties over the last few years none have affected the housing market as I expected,infact the housing market has so far defied all the so called experts opinions but it's not rocket science is it, Low interest rates & a chronic shortage of news homes that has now been exasperated by covid so should push the housing market for at least the next 5 years, it is very unlikely stamp duty holiday ending will have any effect & when furlough ends most people will be back to work, Imo in 18 months time unemployment will be lower than pre covid levels .

[gbh2] 10/4/2021 08:06

imo he enjoys making a Fool out of others!

[growthpotential] 09/4/2021 19:46

Sikh you are a fool. Like 100p is book value for this stock, or something crazy like that. If you were shorting at 105 then your upside is 5% but your potential loss is unlimited. Go figure...

[growthpotential] 09/4/2021 19:45

Sikh is getting owned lol

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/4/2021 18:46

You are literally beyond help. Some people acknowledge that they get things wrong and make mistakes and therefore they learn. I do. Your ridiculous arrogance and intransigence prevents that from happening with you.

The US election result when it was announced resulted in nothing but uncertainty - it did not become a known, it stayed unknown until early January culminating in Trump’s attempt to subvert democracy - it was utterly irrelevant to the Taylor Wimpey share price.

The only unknown about the vaccination news was the timing of it; everyone knew it was coming and it was noted on this thread a number of times. As it happened it came out later in the morning after the trading statement which had already precipitated a 10 to 15% rise in the share price. It then rose further after the vaccine news, as did almost every other share on the entire stock market.

As regards Brexit, furlough and all the other items, all I can say is you lack a political and commercial awareness and ability to think through events ahead of them happening. And the ability to read financial statements.

And still no acknowledgement whatsoever of the opening up and closing of the share price differential between Persimmon and this which was the basis of me making a very large amount of money.

Regarding your last point why would I carry on buying and load up now when that is what I did at 98p and other prices well below 140? Do you understand the difference between buying low and buying high, and indeed taking profits and making money?

Stop deluding yourself that you have any ability at this game. And please answer the question - have you ever made any money out of this share?

[sikhthetech] 09/4/2021 18:05

Imastu,


My posts are there to see. Heading towards 100p Q4, Oct-Dec.


The share price turned when US Election result was announced on 3rd Nov, so major unknown became a known, as expected.
TU was 9th Nov when share price was already moving up.
Vaccine news boosted the sp, another major uncertain event became a known.

Brexit 24th Dec provided little movement - another major unknown became a known..



TU - 9th Nov


The uncertain events became known Q4, Oct-Dec. I suppose the major rises in other shares at same time were also on the back of TW's TU.. honest Guv.


Then brexit provided the recent direction, as expected...as SD hol, furlough were extended.


The facts are all there.


Keep buying, load up at these prices and prove me wrong about what will happen when govn support ends. I've looked at the govn support and other figures and have come up with a timescale/price target.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/4/2021 17:45

sikh - no it wasn't.

A ridiculous relative valuation differential to PSN opened up, on the back of an additional 11% of the number of shares hitting the market. And then largely closed after their November trading statement.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


As some of us noted ahead of the move back up. And some of us denied and attributed it as per sikh's post.

Still in denial.





And as suggested around the end of the year, it is moving between 150 and 200. Funny that...





You never bought any of these down at 98, did you? And you've only admitted (finally) to being short at 180. Have you yet made any money from this share?

[jugears] 09/4/2021 17:23

1carus, there have been less than 1000 deaths in the uk as a direct result of Covid all of the rest had underlying problems, If we all carry on wearing masks fewer people will get ill & need hospital treatment, so that should save the tax payer a few million!!!!

[sikhthetech] 09/4/2021 17:15

Jug,

Brexit happened only just over 3 months ago. You believe shares should be held for the long term but you think there should be an immediate reaction to major events the very next day, whilst in the middle of a pandemic/lockdown!!!!
Really???

Did you see how your Lloy fell from 65p to 25p and is still only at 40p odd???

[sikhthetech] 09/4/2021 17:13

1carus

"Its kinda wierd in a way that the likes of TW can effectively go from 180 -100--180---120--200 or similar in just 12 months, where there is no such movement in housing values."

Not weird at all.

House prices were already slowing before covid hit.

The initial fall from 170p to 100p was on the back of several uncertain events, Covid, Brexit, US Elections etc, so virtually all company's shares fell. So was expected. Nothing to do with house prices.

The rise from 100p back to 170p was because those uncertain events are now known. So the rise was expected. Nothing to do with house prices.


Now HBs/House prices are supported by the govn. New build house prices have fell in Jan/Feb on the expectation of SD hol ending/govn support ending.

Govn support will end Sept. H2B is now for 1st time buyers and there are regional price caps, which will impact HBs.

You don't think the Chancellor's wife owning multi-million pound property portfolio is influencing his decisions on govn support, do you?

Perish the thought.

[1carus] 09/4/2021 16:52

jug, if you believe the stats covid has killed off a lot of deadwood and removed that liability off services and will save the taxpayer money. Also probably released cash into the population to buy more new houses. Daily deaths currently running at 1000 here in the uk, 500 less than 5 year average.

[1carus] 09/4/2021 15:49

Jug, I totally agree. Its kinda wierd in a way that the likes of TW can effectively go from 180 -100--180---120--200 or similar in just 12 months, where there is no such movement in housing values.

I guess there are no sure bets else everyone would be millionaires.

[jugears] 09/4/2021 14:21

1carus they might be volatile but only a handful of large HB's control the UK new house market, what other industry is there where so few companies have the monopoly & this will never change it takes years to build a company the size of TW,PSN,BDEV. IMO the share price has a very long way up to go yet.

[martyn9] 09/4/2021 14:16

1carus, lol builders volatile!! demand for housing still at an all time high and now open uk for hongkongers to add to the ongoing list.
If you want volatile try oil&gas.

[jugears] 09/4/2021 14:14

DD, I for one was not expecting a special dividend this year but am expecting at least a minimum of 15p next year on top of ordinary dividends. Currently plenty of demand for houses well past ending of stamp duty holiday according to my friends in the industry, due to the reduction in the number of houses built last year it will take many years to rebuild that missing stock by which time house prices will be up 25% plus, I see an easy £2.64 here in the near future & very long overdue, not that I am complaining when I look back at all those cheap shares I have purchased & those cheap shares I have picked up in dividends, Question is will we see below £1 again, Answer not a F-----g chance.

[1carus] 09/4/2021 14:10

Quite liking this. It is a share that wants to get to £2.00. Probably just going to hold now until the special goes ex next year and sell in to the run up to it. I will have made good money by then, return of 3x in 8 years or something like that. However, one day Sikh will be right and I would rather have my money in something less volatile than builders. But a way off yet.