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Tasty Plc Share Discussion Threads
Showing 226 to 248 of 250 messages
|Took the plunge today
I reckon it's another craw and 30% from here should be easily achievable
I accept I could be wrong but I asked my son to go into the convent garden premises and the report was positive|
|And still she falls|
|There is a £7m loan to take off that cash!
Besides with this type of company it is profits that give a valuation not turnover. All those lease need servicing come what may.
I reckon there are stores to close and onerous leases to get out of.|
|JonC your price would value the company at about £17m, personally I don't see that, as it would be an absolute steal at this value? cash circa £5m, and revenues of ('14/'15/'16) £29m, £35m, £47m
And you see it worth £17m?|
|45000 at 51p.
Can see this down to 30p soon.
Cannot see any good news emanating from the Company in the near future.|
|Just go to Wildwood in Ilkley, most likely cost in the region of £500K to turn it from Burtons to a restaurant, most days it's empty, the bottom could be a good deal lower!|
|Where's the bottom?|
Good points, well made.
I think we'll possibly have to be patient with TAST, and am regretting buying some shares in it recently.
Having said that, the balance sheet looks alright, and management know what they're doing, so it's the sort of thing I'll just park for a year or two, and should probably do OK.
|negative write up in yesterdays shares mag, could explain selling yesterday|
|If you believe they can turn it around then the next question is how long and how much more pain will be forced on shareholders. And that's only if you really believe the model is not fundamentally flawed. Fulham shore hit their numbers and Tasty did not. Either way you could easily see things get a lot worse before any chance get they get better at Tasty.|
|I like this business because management has a record of past success in the industry. But, I fear the macroeconomics of the restaurant industry and internal company restructuring means this year the company's shares will trade in a range.
Below are some key findings:
1. Annual lease per restaurant is £88k, down from £110k seven years ago.
2. The leasing duration for each chain is roughly 16.7 years. It worked out as annual lease/total operating lease = 6%. So, (1/6% = 16.7)
3. Asset turnover minus cash is stable.
4. External funding since IPO’s admission totals £32m or £3.2m per year.
5. Market valuation is at a three-year low.
6. As management revise that new store openings to seven, it helps reduce capex down to around £6m. Previous guidance of 15 new stores would result in £13m to £14m capex.
The Guardian posted a piece stating an accountancy firm cite 5,570 restaurants has a 30% probability of going bust in the next three years.
These contributing reasons are: -
-The UK imports 48% of its food, this leads to higher operating costs;
-The cost of labour is rising from £6.70 to £7.20 in April, with a further rise to £7.50 to take place next April;
-More consumers are in debt; - 48% of borrowers have a credit card which is not cleared in full each month, compared with 39% a year ago.
Although they were valid points, we don’t know how many of them are restaurant goers?
TASTY PLC SHARE PRICE OUTLOOK
This is my opinion:
“The forecast share price of between 40 pence to 80 pence per share.”
For more read article: http://bit.ly/2nKcdc6|
|I think Kayes are likely to turn this around. However, they need to get more creative. They're a one-trick pony I feel - opening more & more "me too" pizza & pasta chains, and there's over-capacity now with that format, as other people have latched on to the high margins & replicated the format.
That said, at current valuation, I think TAST might be worth a small punt, so have bought a few more recently. But not going to become a big, or conviction position for me. I'll just hold for a year or two, and see what happens.
Bal Sheet is fine.
|I made a few on the way down and hopefully a nice gain on the way up.|
|Just beginners luck for me.
Hopefully £5k-£6K by tomorrow morning :). I am just of modest means, no hot shot chucking £200K -£1m like many on adfvn.|
|Worth 60p imho|
|Name of the game short high
then reverse in the lows|
|80p by tomorrow I suspect.|
I took a dabble here yesterday. Got in the technical bounce.
see how it pans.|
|I have watched these fr around five years and nearly bought at the 55/60p level.
Me and the missus even tried a number of the wildwood restaurants for market research. Ely Cambridge Newmarket and Peterborough.
My impression is that they are quite expensive for what they offer.
I was always concerned by the lack of focus ie Wildwoods Wildwood Kitchens and DimT.
My view currently is that have outgrown the sytems they have in place for managing the business and this is now being addressed.
However there is pricing pressure that will continue to impact for some time.
I will continue watching and eating the occasional pizza and see what transpires.|
|Kaye's can still turn this around. Def isn't going bust as once you turn roll-out off, these businesses can turn into cash cows (I know this sector well!)and the current debt level isn't out of control.
My problem is that when "growth" companies are no longer growing, their high PE multiple valuations are completely unsupportable and hence pain for the shareholders. Becomes less about growth and more about cash preservation - the double whammy of lower earnings against a lower valuation multiple.
This will now be a longer term turnaround plan focused on i) reinvigorating the brands, ii) improving LFL performance across the estate and restaurant margin through site efficiency, iii) managing underperforming sites through focus and exiting leases if possible. There is no point with a full-speed roll-out if the core concept is either flawed or is no longer hitting 30%+ ROCE.
I would be very interested to see the performance of the recently opened sites as this is a good barometer of whether the concept has legs or not.
Unfortunately without the underlying site-by-site data, it's difficult to determine if this is a 'blip' or something a lot more severe.
One thing for sure, shareholders will need to be in it for the long haul to see any value and even then I feel the risk is more on the downside than upside.|
|Ok some people after buying yesterday decided to short in small bit and then average down.
Hoping to get quick exit when the way up.
But what's the bottom?
catching a falling knife?
The Kaye's should sells some shares now.
Let it collapse then put their opportunistic at a later stage.|
|Wildwood is just a glorified Pizza Express, they opened this elaborate fit-out in an old Burtons Store, opposite is a Piccolino's, and Ilkley already has a PE, but apart from Carluccio's which opened a year or two back there are very few themed restaurants, however the place is mainly full of geriatrics, the young tend to visit in the evening on a weekend, if you want a good time you get a half hour train journey in to Leeds, but not Bradford unless you like slurry!|