Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Taptica LSE:TAP London Ordinary Share IL0011320343 ORD NIS0.01 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -10.00p -2.47% 395.00p 161,675 16:35:14
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
390.00p 405.00p 405.00p 392.50p 402.50p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Media 101.9 15.9 21.3 21.1 266.99

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Date Time Title Posts
25/7/201716:02Taptica International Ltd182
04/2/201708:04TAP Oil A re-birth for the man who led Salamander Petroleum-
24/5/201222:35ADVANTAGE PROPERT INCOME TRUST yld15.6%645
25/8/200911:13Commercial property on the rise10

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Taptica Daily Update: Taptica is listed in the Media sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TAP. The last closing price for Taptica was 405p.
Taptica has a 4 week average price of 392.50p and a 12 week average price of 357.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 515p while the 1 year low share price is currently 267.50p.
There are currently 67,591,463 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 104,075 shares. The market capitalisation of Taptica is £266,986,278.85.
eh9: The market is very wrong to believe tap and xlm have the same business model. Imo tap is the much more exciting business. Xlm is struggling to grow and resorting to media websites to try to grow whereas tap is in a landgrab situation. Xlm has undoubtedly brought down taps share price the last 24hrs unfortunately
nocrap: The End Of (Artificial) Stability By David Scott | Monday 12 March, 2018. There are many ways of assessing the value of the stock market. The Shiller PE (price relative to the past decade’s worth of real, average earnings) and Tobin’s Q (the value of companies’ outstanding stock and debt relative to their replacement cost) are possibly the two best. That doesn’t mean those metrics are accurate crash indicators, or that one can use them profitably as trading signals. Expensive stocks can stay expensive or get more expensive, and cheap stocks can stay cheap or get cheaper for inconveniently and expensively long periods of time. But those metrics do have a good record of forecasting future long-term (one decade or more) returns. And that’s important for financial planning and wealth management. Difficult though it is sometimes, everyone must use an estimated return into a formula for retirement savings. Stocks will almost certainly return less than their long-term 10% annualized average for the next decade or two given a starting Shiller PE over 30. The long-term average of the metric, after all, is under 17. Another way of looking at how expensive the market has gotten recently is to look at sales of the S&P 500 constituents and relate it to share price. Companies are always manipulating items on income statements to arrive at an earnings number. Recently, record numbers of companies have supported net income numbers with non-GAAP metrics. That can be legitimate sometimes, but on the whole companies use it to manipulate profits and share prices up. For example, depreciation on real estate is rarely commensurate with reality. But it can also be nefarious, as Vitaliy Katsenelson recently argued in criticizing Jack Welch’s stewardship of General Electric, which Katsenelson characterized as being more interested in beating quarterly earnings estimates rather than in creating long-term wealth. And that’s why sales metrics can be useful. They are less easily manipulated. From the beginning of 2009 through the end of 2016, companies in the S&P 500 index grew profits per share by nearly 4% annualized, a perfectly respectable number for a mature economy. But price per share grew by a whopping 14.5% over that time. Over that 8-year period, sales grew less than 50% cumulatively, while share prices tripled. Anyone invested in stocks should worry how do share prices get so divorced from underlying corporate sales? One likely answer is low interest rates. But there must be other reasons because we’ve had low interest rates and low stock prices before – namely in the 1940s. That was after the Great Depression, and stocks were still likely viewed as suspect investments. Today, by contrast, stocks are not viewed with much suspicion, despite the technology bubble peaking in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2008. Investors still believe in stocks as an asset class. And yet, the decline in rates over the past four decades has been breath-taking, as has Federal Reserve intervention. James Montier of Boston asset manager, Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo (GMO), has studied stock price movements over the past few decades and found that a significant percentage of upward price movements have occurred on or before Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) days. Montier estimated that 25% of the market’s return since 1984 has resulted from movements around FOMC days. Moreover, the market has moved higher regardless of what the FOMC decision was. If this is a stock market bubble – and the data shows unusually high prices relative to sales and earnings – it is a strange one. One doesn’t hear the anecdotal evidence of excitement – i.e., cab driver’s talking about their latest stock purchases, etc.…. This is perhaps a kind of dour bubble, where asset ownership at any price seems prudent in an economy that is becoming less and less hospitable to ordinary workers. Or, as Montier wrote in a more recent paper, this may be a “cynical”; bubble where investors know that shares are overpriced but think they can be the first ones out when the inevitable decline begins. Most valuation parameters are either the richest ever or among the highest in history. In the past, levels like these were followed by downturns. Thus, a decision to invest today must rely on the belief that ‘it’s different this time.’ I’m convinced the easy money has been made.” Most of corrections and crashes follow initial warning signals. Very often, market tops are followed by a few setbacks, followed by new highs, until the ultimate correction occurs. The 2000 dot-com collapse is a perfect example. The initial correction started on March 11, 2000, but the index didn’t bottom until October 2002 after losing 78% of its pre-crash value. Similarly, the Financial Crisis of 2008 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers were preceded by the 90% share price drop and subsequent bankruptcy of New Century Financial in March and April of 2007.The market peaked on October 9, 2007—a full six months after the initial shock. Then another five months later, Bear Stearns crumbled, followed by IndyMac in July 2008. The Question You Should Ask Yourself The question investors should ask themselves is: Which part of the cycle are we in today? Are we closer to a top or to a bottom? If we are closer to a top and we start seeing early signs of a correction, it’s important to adopt a defensive investment strategy before a more serious crash occurs. The market may still reach new highs, but the risks are mounting. Personally, I’d rather sacrifice a bit of performance to protect the downside. The reasons why we want downturn insurance in place now are: Stocks still have rich valuations today, especially the FAANGs. P/Es are high compared to historical averages. Over the last several years, corporations have used leverage for financial engineering rather than boosting productivity. US corporate debt levels are at an all-time high (above $6 trillion or about 31% of GDP). This excess leverage is fine when interest rates are low, but it can be deadly in a recession. In addition, stock repurchases don’t have the same impact on profits than capital investments. Interest rates are expected to increase because of the Fed’s tightening policies. Treasury issuances will likely increase over the next few years. Unfortunately, this may coincide with lower demand for US debt from both international and domestic buyers. Higher interest rates will put pressure on demand for consumer goods and real estate. These are two critical drivers of economic activity in the US. Many asset categories are currently in bubble territory and prone to downward adjustments: growth stocks, bonds, real estate in many markets, arts, collectibles, and luxury goods, and cryptocurrencies. Geopolitical risks are not insignificant (North Korea, Iran). Political gridlock in the US could lead to paralysis after the mid-term elections. Heightened risks of protectionism and trade wars. There are some positive indicators that could prolong the current expansion—such as high employment rates and robust economic activity in all the developed economies. The Trump administration’;s tax reform could also boost the economy, although most of the benefits are likely to be delayed. As far as I am concerned the risks when valuations are so full are simply not worth taking. A branch of journalism that might be called, “don’t worry, be happy, because this time is different” tends to pop up at the peak of cycles when imbalances that caused past crashes start to reemerge. Eager to keep the gravy train going, business publications send reporters out to interview industry experts (who are making fortunes from the ongoing expansion) on why this batch of imbalances is no problem at all. And sure, enough they find all kinds of plausible-sounding rationalizations. In the 1990s dot-com bubble, for instance, stratospheric P/E ratios didn’t matter because for New Age tech companies earnings were “optional.R21; In the 2000s housing bubble record mortgage debt didn’t matter because home prices would always rise faster than the associated borrowing, keeping homeowners above water and banks ever-solvent. Subsequent events proved this to be nothing more than insiders trying to keep the deals flowing. Now, with pretty much every major indicator signalling a peak for the latest cycle, “don’t worry, be happy” is once again a popular journalistic beat. As the world watches to see if Trump will follow through with his threat to put on steel and aluminium import tariffs, Europe continues to quietly ratchet up its own trade war with China. On Tuesday, as China was trying to define its future trade relations with the US, it was delivered a broadside from the European Commission after Brussels announced it had renewed tariffs on Chinese steel imports, some as high as 71.9%, saying producers in France, Spain and Sweden face a continued risk of imports from China at unfairly low prices. Ironically, that's the same thing that Trump is saying. The original measures, imposed last April, saw Europe setting anti-dumping duties on imports of hot-rolled flat steel products from China at a higher rate than the preliminary tariffs already in place. The European Commission explained it had set final duties of between 18.1% and 35.9% for five years for producers including Bengang Steel Plates, Handan Iron & Steel and Hesteel. This compared with lower provisional rates in place of 13.2 to 22.6%, following a complaint by EU producers ArcelorMittal, Tata Steel and ThyssenKrupp. Last week Bloomberg reported that the European Commission reimposed for another five years the duties, which punish Chinese exporters including Huadi Steel for allegedly dumping pipes and tubes in Europe; the levies range from 48.3% to 71.9%, depending on the Chinese exporter. “The repeal of the measures would in all likelihood result in a significant increase of Chinese dumped imports at prices undercutting the union industry prices," the commission - the 28-nation EU’s executive arm in Brussels - said in the Official Journal; the five-year renewal will take effect on Wednesday. And even though China’s share of the EU market for stainless steel seamless pipes and tubes has been negligible, and hovering at around 2% since 2013, Brussels had no problem with pursuing what it thought was fair remedies. The financial crisis, global recession and a long, slow recovery have dented public faith in central banks and it’s going to be a hard slog to win it back, according to the Bank of England’s chief economist. In a speech on Tuesday, Andy Haldane said credibility and trust are the “secret sauce of central banking” and there is no quick fix to regain them. That’s partly because of resentment among people about slow wage growth, faster inflation and the perception that whatever spoils the economy offers haven’t been shared equally. Over the past several years the largest buyer of U.S. treasury debt was the Federal Reserve through fiat money creation. That is printed money to buy the date of the government. Now, the Fed has tapered quantitative easing and is dumping their balance sheet at a rate faster than anyone expected. The Fed is pulling the plug on its artificial support of the economy. The next largest buyers are major foreign central banks in countries like China, Japan and to some extent the supranational EU. If the debt buyers of last resort are now the very same countries Trump is seeking to enact tariffs over, this is unlikely to end well. They will dump U.S. treasury bonds pushing up yields and interest rates and perhaps even dump the dollar the world reserve currency. The Fed under Jerome Powell has made it crystal clear that they will be raising interest rates and cutting the Fed balance sheet, perhaps more than their dot plots had indicated in the past. Without low rates and a steadily rising balance sheet we have already seen the results. Stocks have gone crazy compared to the past few years, dumping nearly 10% one week, spiking about half that the next week. It is no coincidence that the first two times the Fed reduced its balance sheet the Dow plunged over 1,000 points. The latest dump of $23 billion at the end of February resulted in a drop of around 1,500 points. It is too early in this process to know what the trend will be, but it seems to me that stocks are being steam valve down every month. With a marked decline just after a balance sheet dump, followed by a less impressive dead cat bounce the week after. One thing is certain, the supposedly endless bull market induced by the Fed years ago is now over. Investors are yet to wake up to this new reality and for most they will do so, too late and significantly worse off. Remember in 2006, everyone (please exclude me from this) from Ben Bernanke to Goldman Sachs thought 2008 was going to be a great year and we all know how that turned out! posted today on sahre prophets, what do i take from this, simply if interest rates got higher and higher, then their is no incentive to own stocks, the risk is too much and safer gains by bank deposit accounts, but needs to be around 10% plus, and buffett also said that. plus maybe the time is to own low, p/e stocks like tap, and get away from the over priced, world famous US tech stocks.
mount teide: 'NASDAQ won't allow just any company to be traded on its exchange. Only companies with a solid history and top-notch management behind them are considered.' They can't be too choosy, as they let the infamous, ever scheming George Economou - a man who had a long reputation for acting for himself, that would bring a flush to the cheeks of a New York crime boss - list Ocean Rig and Dryships on Nasdaq with him holding ALL the voting rights. Dryships shareholders quickly learned to their cost not to expect Economou to be concerned for them. “Who are your investors?” Economou was once asked in a Forbes interview. George memorably replied without a hint of remorse for his highly unethical behaviour: “Computer models, hedge funds and some institutions that go in and make $10 and get out.” George is currently the subject of nearly two dozen class action law suits with respect to his management of Dryships. I posted on Advfn, a couple of years before the sky fell in for Dryships shareholders, that the company was being run by a con artist who somehow managed to get a Nasdaq listing for the Company, where he controlled all the voting stock. The accounts did not make any sense, the company was losing hundreds of $millions every year, and was routinely seeing huge sums of cash and ships getting transferred directly into a private shipping Company, OWNED by himself! It was inevitable it would all end in tears and so it proved - although it did take a further two years and not before George had drained nearly every last dime out of the company. Incredibly, at the height of the last shipping boom Dryships had a Nasdaq market cap around £10bn and a share price of $142. Following a total of 5 reverse stock splits during 2017, any shareholder who owned 1 million shares previously, was left with 3 full shares - each with a value of 50 cents! There is a name for this practice: The Art of the Ultimate Scam! Like a magician the Dryships CEO made himself incredibly wealthy by turning his shareholders $100 notes into tiny fractions of a cent, right before their and the regulators very eyes! One hugely disgruntled shareholder closed out a 99.95% loss on the stock - on the grounds, if he had held any longer, the price would have dropped below the cost of actually selling it! He said he foolishly bought the stock for the dividend - "not my best decision - i got $532 .....only cost me $60,000!" (Much like investing in Carillion then) He went on to ruefully state "Anyone holding this as an investment after all that's been written about the company deserves to lose every last cent invested because it means no due diligence was done or greed got the better of them." He reckoned " Someone needs to put the CEO in the ground. If he lived in the US rather than Greece it would probably have already happened!' Another shareholder stated: 'At one time (couple years ago) I had enough shares (way over 100K) to be the 17th largest holder of DRYS. It all pretty much ended for me when the CEO sold the remaining profitable fleet vessels to himself. I knew it was likely over then, but, the damage was done. Since then he has Reverse stock spit so many times that I would have been driven out to below 1 share. The CEO has taken a company that had a chance of recovering and transferred everything that had value to himself. He then started to systematically destroy every shareholder. Since he never bothered to Reverse split his preferred shares, it didn't cost him a dime. So if you think for one minute you could trust this guy with your hard earned sweat and blood, remember, I thought I could get on top of any Reverse split with over 100K shares. I was proved wrong - a very costly mistake.' The CEO? Latest market rumour is that George is busy working with his lead underwriter on another reverse stock split from the safety of his Athens mansion!
nocrap: I leave the more puzzling questions about where should a company target new sales, its competitors, etc, thats the job for the ceo.!!! and their big wages. i look for industries that are growing, stock with a low p/e, a low peg ratio, a good ROE, a growing share price, low volatile stocks, little debt.increasing earnings per share, undiscovered stocks heres a post from stockopedia last summer. However, whereas much of XLMedia’s profit comes from the gaming sector, Taptica works with some of the biggest consumer brands in the world. Here’s a snapshot of a few of the companies featured on its website: 5937c95b415e2T2.png Source: Taptica operates in more than 15 countries with over 600 apps and brands. The company’s user database handles more than 22bn requests each day and contains 220m user profiles with more than 100 data points for each user! It seems to me that Taptica must be becoming a significant player in this sector, providing tailored marketing for big brands, mainly through targeted mobile advertising. Do the numbers stack up? Taptica’s sales have risen from $20.3m in 2011 to $125.9m in 2016, giving a compound average annual growth rate of 44%. Net profit growth has broadly matched this, rising by a CAGR of 42% over the same period (although the figures for 2011-2013 are pro forma, as Taptica only floated in London in 2014). The firm’s 2016 results were certainly impressive, as Paul Scott commented at the time. Revenue rose by 66% to $125.9m, while gross profit rose by 118% to $46m, thanks to an improvement in gross margin from 27.8% to 36.5%. Taptica ended last year with net cash of $21.5m, despite spending a total of $16.5m on acquisitions, share buybacks and dividends. This is clearly a cash generative business and I’d expect this to continue. In my view, the group’s data-driven marketing approach is likely to become more effective and efficient at larger scale. Scope for re-rating? The market appears to remain sceptical about Taptica, probably because it’s an overseas company listed on AIM. The only time Taptica’s share price climbs is following a broker upgrade and/or a strong set of results. To highlight this I’ve placed the chart for the last year above the broker forecast trend for the same period: 5937c99579acdT3.png Despite this, the shares have enjoyed a significant re-rating over the last year. The consensus earnings forecast for 2017 has risen by 110% since June 2016, from 12.7 pence to 26.7 pence per share. Over the same period, the share price has risen by about 280%. So we can see that Taptica’s 2017 forecast P/E ratio has risen from 6.2 to 11.3 over the last year. As Taptica reports in US dollars, the precise level of re-rating may have been affected by the depreciation of the pound. But the trend is unmistakeable. Affordable growth? With a StockRank of 96 and a StockRank Style of Super Stock, the omens are good. However, Taptica’s strong growth last year means that the ValueRank, which uses trailing figures, is a relatively weak 53. That’s not necessarily a problem, as the group’s trailing valuation figures are still relatively appealing: 5937c9aa0ff43T4.png The highlights for me are Taptica’s trailing price/free cash flow ratio of 12.5 and its earnings yield (EBIT/EV) of 9.2%. These two figures alone suggest decent value to me. After all, inverting the P/FCF ratio gives a free cash flow yield of 8%. That represents money which can safely be returned to shareholders or used to invest in growth. Taptica’s high price/book ratio doesn’t concern me, as this is a business built on people and intellectual property. Its value lies in the earning power of the complete package. Overall, I’ve no concerns about Taptica’s value scores, given its current growth rate. Top quality Taptica’s QualityRank of 99 suggest a near-perfect set of figures. The reality certainly looks promising: 5937c9b743460T5.png I think it’s worth noting that the six-year average return on capital employed (ROCE) is probably being skewed by the presence of pre-IPO figures in the Stockopedia data: 5937c9c253b23T6.png Did Taptica really generate a ROCE of 1,215% in 2013? It seems unlikely. However, the group’s post-IPO average ROCE of 20.9% is far more credible and still very high. All the other figures in the QualityRank calculation seem fine to me. One particular attraction is the Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, which confirms the wholesale improvement in the company’s performance seen in 2016: 5937c9cc7bdd2T8.png The F-Score is a great way to get a snapshot of a company’s financial health and recent performance, in my opinion. It’s also heavily weighted in the QualityRank calculation, so high quality stocks usually have high F-Scores. Does Taptica still have momentum? Taptica’s habit of only making gains after a positive update hasn’t prevented the stock from earning a MomentumRank of 91. Price momentum factors are particularly strong, as the screenshot below shows: 5937c9daf3381T9.png Looking ahead, earnings per share are expected to rise by 30% to $0.34 this year, putting the stock on a fairly undemanding forecast P/E of 11.3. The dividend payout is expected to rise by 65% to 7.1 cents or 5.5p. This should give a more attractive 1.8% yield, while still maintaining dividend cover of about 4.8x. Although stingy, this payout ratio should mean that Taptica will still have the firepower needed to make acquisitions or buyback shares without using debt. My verdict: I can’t see any obstacles to further growth for Taptica. The valuation looks reasonable and the firm’s financial performance seems excellent. I’m going to add Taptica to the SIF portfolio this week. I’ll also buy for my own portfolio after this article has been published.
runthejoules: SHARES mag recommends: The deployment of a $50m acquisition war chest at mobile advertising platform Taptica (TAP:AIM) could prompt near 30% upgrades to earnings forecasts if it manages to make good acquisitions, according to investment bank Berenberg. This would provide another leg to the growth story and help drive further momentum in a share price which is already up more than 450% in the last 18 months. WHAT DOES THE COMPANY DO? Taptica is a ‘user acquisition platform’ which focuses on mobile and social media. In plain English this means it helps clients to run more effective advertising campaigns through a platform which helps target ads appropriately. The ultimate aim is to help convert mobile website, social media and app user traffic into paying customers. The company operates a performance-based marketing model and therefore gets a slice of the user revenue it helps drive for its customers. Its platform is used by top global brands including Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Starbucks, Uber and Samsung. Historically Shares was sceptical on the story after a big crash for the ad-tech space in 2015 driven by fears over fraudulent online ads and ad-blocking technology. The company’s track record in the interim has led us to change our minds and although we have missed out on some big gains we still see merit in buying at the current price. We are particularly reassured by the fact earnings are increasingly backed by cash. In the first half of 2017 adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation was up more than 40% year-on-year at $13.1m while cash flow more than trebled to $13.7m. STRENGTHENED BALANCE SHEET Taptica recently raised $30m to bolster its balance sheet (15 Jan) and Berenberg analysts comment: ‘Our scenario analysis indicates that if Taptica deploys its balance sheet firepower over the coming year, there could be 20% to 29% upside to our 2018-20 earnings per share estimates.’ A 2018 price-to-earnings ratio of less than 15 times based on Berenberg’s existing forecasts does not look too demanding. Deals are likely to be used to accelerate expansion in key markets including Europe and Asia Pacific as well as to plug technological gaps. There are risks attached to the story, nonetheless. A focus on M&A brings integration risk although we note its recent track record of finding quality businesses is good, as illustrated by the fact its Tremor Video DSP acquisition from August 2017 is proving to be a particularly good deal. Investors should also be wary of any future regulatory changes to the way online ads are bought or sold. Taptica pays a small dividend, yielding approximately 1%. You’re really buying the shares for capital growth. (TS)
simso: TAP is now my largest holding, and I believe the Share Price will be much higher in a year's time than it is today, driven by earnings upgrades for 2018 from three sources:- 1) The EBITDA Forecast for 2018 of $38m was not upgraded despite the significant beat for 2017, which is now expected by Finncap at $33m. I think the benefits of having Tremor and Addinovation for a Full Year in 2018 compared to part year in 2017 will be more than enough to bridge from $33m in 2017 to $38m in 2018 in its own right. 2) Organic Growth: The strong trend of increased underlying business looks certain to continue, and global reach improved. Further benefits from new Offices opened (eg London). 3) With a $25m freshly raised cash and a proven record, I think earnings enhancing aquisitions are inevitable. I would also back Hagai to further improve those businesses profitability once acquired, as he has done already with last year's acquisitions. However, I am steeled for some shorter term volatility, and also some potential selling pressure, from two sources:- 1) The Placing was "oversubscribed" in theory...but in reality subscribers (including me) got almaost all they asked for. The problem when subscribing for a Placing via a Bookbuild is that you never know in advance whether it will be one like an IQE where you only get a tiny fraction, or one like this when your order is largelly filled. I am sure the big Inst's hedge their bets and ask for more than they really want to partly compensate a potential scale back, and would sell some down if it is more fully subscribed. A poster commented last week on here that he had heard of a big US Fund who was selling for that reason, and I had also heard that same story. 2) The Shareholding of Smart and Simple (Mr Ehad Levy). From some initial research, I believe Mr Levy is an Entreprenuer and Investor in many Tech businesses, and is not a Board member of Tap. Remember that S&S sold 10.25m shares via a secondary placing @385p in July 17, leaving them with 6.6m. They have just sold a further 2m of these in the placing last week. The Placing document last week referred to their ideally wanting to sell the remaining 4.6m "subject to sufficient demand, to sell the remainder of its stake (the "Smart & Simple Sale Shares". Clearly the Demand in the Placing was not sufficient to take out the remainder of S&S stake. While they cannot now sell for a further 90 days, we effectively have an "overhang"..a seller who owns 7% of TAP has signalled a clear intention that he would like to sell and would presumably be willing to accept 450p. I am half expecting some short term weakness, but also feel very confident we will be in a much better place with a 6-12 month view.
mr doughnut1: Last weeks IC - Taptica appeared second in a list of 'low risk momentum' stocks. The screening criteria included: Strong revenue momentum - 20 percent one year increase - TAP 27.3% Strong earnings momentum - 10 percent 1 year increase - TAP 71 % Making cash - average operating cash conversion of at least 100 % in the last 3 years Not too expensive - PE multiples less than 20 times - TAP 11.5 Share price justified by earnings growth - price-to-earnings growth ratio of 1 or lower - TAP 0.3 (Source Bloomberg) The article outlined that in the event of a market crash ' strong revenue, earnings and cash flow' could support a company through times of turbulence. TAP ticked all the boxes meaning that a crash shouldn't have too much impact on the long term investment case.
mount teide: Some thoughts and observations on Old Mutual's short position, in the week that has seen the share price rocket by 24% since Old Mutual reported it had increased to 0.96%: It first reached a reportable size(0.5%) on/close to the 11th Sept @0.58% and increased to 0.96% via notifications over the next 11 days. Assuming: The initial position was probably built up in the 430p to 370p share price range - lets assume an average of 400p for the first 0.58% The next 0.14% increase was @ circa 385p And the final 0.24% increase @ circa 350p This would give an overall average of circa 385p for a total position of circa 590,000 shares. Now we know on results day the share price rallied quickly and then largely stayed at the 380p area where a high transaction volume occurred - circa 1.5m; and that some very large individual transactions totalling nearly 600,000 shares transacted at circa 380p were quietly slipped into the reporting system some 2 days later after hours(how the Market Regulators/ Current Rules can let MM's get away with this chicanery is a disgrace for any market which claims to be regulated and providing all investors with a level playing field). This would have enabled Old Mutual to have exited much of the 0.38% of combined positions taken out at an average of circa 362p and a decent chunk of the position taken out at 400p, at/close to break even. Leaving around 0.35% taken out at an average of 400p to be bought back - some could have been bought back over the next few days at around 380p with the remainder at prices up to 407p without Old Mutual sustaining a loss of any kind on its total position. That nearly 140k were bought via two transactions late Friday afternoon at the full and highest offer price of the day, suggests someone may have agreed with a MM/s to buy at this volume and price beforehand, enabling the MM's to walk the price up to this level on low volume (the share price reached 407p offer on Friday on just circa 90k of volume - but finished the day with 392k of reported volume). So post the results, its suggests we may have had the shorters closing out to thank for some of the rapid recovery in share-price from 330p to 405p last week. If this is the case, why has there been no change in Old Mutual's short position notified to the market? (bearing in mind that at least circa 400,000 of the total stock on loan according to Euroclear's latest report were held by those with positions below the notifiable threshold of 0.5%) Observation of shorts closing out in other companies in recent years suggest many II's and hedge funds shamelessly use every trick in the book and some that aren't, to leave notification of any reduction in an existing short position 'investment' that is starting to go against them until they are dragged kicking and screaming to report it. Scandalously, there are many examples of II's and hedge funds accepting a small fine and slap on the wrist as a more than acceptable penalty for failing to comply chapter and verse with the rules for reporting notifiable positions - since once they start reporting the closing out of a position going strongly against them(fast rising price) it risks a massive squeeze by momentum trading sharks always on the lookout for any scent of blood in the water to start a feeding frenzy. AIMHO/DYOR
zach9: I am staggered by so many people on this board, searching for obscure reasons for the dramatic share price fall. It is blatantly obvious, the only people that can manipulate a share price, are Market Makers. There has been no stated change in the Companies position, therefore, this is pure manipulation. Take late last evening a 30,000 buy @350p, first thing this morning on 3000 shares traded (buys & sells) the share price was marked down 7.5p, although to add to the incompetence of TAPs MMs the spread remained at 330p-350p. Sadly, I can see this share wallow around the low 300p region for some time, I also do not discount the first number starting with a 2. Hope I am wrong.
dibbs: Interesting write up on TAP below, taken from III. Investec forecasting 21.1 cents for this year. I like the "Our 2017 forecasts are unchanged though now look conservative," admits Liechti" Plenty of room for upgrades if momentum continues to build further. Very happy to be holding here with very good scope for the share price to appreciate further over the coming months. It's a big day for Taptica (TAP). Floated on AIM in 2014, the Israeli firm is back above its IPO price for the first time in 18 months. Demand is driven by blockbuster first half results and a special dividend, with bosses bullish on prospects for the full-year. No wonder the shares surged by 29% Wednesday. Taptica's clever software allows advertisers like Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) reach the right market via mobile devices. This work helped revenue increase by 53% to $51.8 million (£39.6 million) in the six months ended 30 June. That swelled adjusted cash profit to $9.2 million from $2.8 million a year ago, and pre-tax profit sixfold to $6.85 million, giving bosses confidence to pay a one-off dividend of 5.79 cents, or 4.4p a share. We'd been told back in July that business had been better than expected, largely due to surprisingly high margins on campaigns run for clients. Gross margin rose from 26.4% to 34.4% in the six months, and chief executive Hagai Tal tells Interactive Investor he's "comfortable" to say Taptica will achieve "at least what we did in the first six months". Steve Liechti, an analyst at Investec Securities, keeps sales estimates for this year unchanged at $111 million, up from $75.8 million in 2015. But he thinks Taptica will more than double cash profit to $18.4 million, up from his previous estimate of $17.7 million, and grow underlying earnings per share from 8 cents to 21.1 cents. He'd pencilled in 20.2 cents before. "Our 2017 forecasts are unchanged though now look conservative," admits Liechti. Taptica's first half certainly vindicates a decision to target mobile advertising rather than the web, a move aided by the $17 million acquisition of AreaOne in September last year. Mobile business now accounts for 79% of revenues versus 51% in the first half of 2015. It's been a long slog, however, and the share price slumped by two-thirds last summer after the firm, then known as Marimedia, warned its decision to shift emphasis from the display business would damage revenue. "As we went into mobile, we were strong, but focusing on Tier One clients took time," Hagai Tal explained to Interactive Investor. "We've now proved ourselves and it’s easier to attract new advertisers." That includes giant US retailers, which are increasingly focused on mobile ads. "The whole market is growing, and this is just beginning," reckons Hagai Tal. "They haven’t moved all their budget yet, but understand they need to engage with potential customers on mobile. Once they see the light, they start to shift their business." Marimedia floated in May 2014, raising £29.8 million via a placing at 153p. Two months later it bought the Taptica business whose name it took the following year. After hitting a low of 57p last summer, the share price has soared from just 63p in June to a high of 165p Wednesday, a gain of 162%. At that level, the shares trade on a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 10.2 times, dropping to single digits based on 2017 estimates. That doesn’t sound expensive, and it's not, but the market has been reluctant to rate Taptica more highly given its track record, preferring instead to see how the transition to mobile goes. It's gone well so far, and investors are clearly happy to pay much more for the shares. As that track record improves, so too should the rating. Investec has raised its price target to 160p based on today's results, but clearly there is room for further upside if the second half goes as well as Taptica predicts. As Investec says, their forecasts could be conservative. This is an exciting business, but at these elevated levels is a 'buy on the dips' for brave investors only.
Taptica share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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