Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 18/6/2019 09:21

There would be a saving of some 40b that we would not be paying the EU IF WE hard brexit.
Plus the on going saving we pay them will more than cover the NHS.

Tiger

[amt] 18/6/2019 08:33

By the way I don't think it will be possible to have big tax cuts to support the economy. The country has a collosal debt to finance. The NHS needs at least another 20 billion per annum to prevent the system from breaking down. The likelihood is that interest on government debt would increase considerably so how would tax cuts be financed.

[amt] 18/6/2019 08:28

"Simply we don't know" . Exactly so very difficult to make decisions so best to be prudent.
I think it's best to be prepared for a Brexit without a proper deal agreement in place.
So big fall in pound very likely. Some disruption to EU supply chains. That may be irrelevant to Tandem but it would be interesting to find out. How quickly can they react to a sudden fall in consumer demand. Is there a danger of over stocking. What if any is the risk of debtors going bad etc.
Basically prepare for the worst until we know what the outcome is. We should have a better picture by the end of this year. Then it will be easier to make forecasts. At the moment it's impossible. At that point dividend policy could be reviewed. It would be very damaging to put a new generous policy in place now only to have to cut it back a year later. Why not wait 6 months? If things pan out well and the pound recovers then nothing lost by waiting 6 months.

[castleford tiger] 18/6/2019 07:21

What type of brexit?

If its hard expect big tax cuts to support economy .

Simply we just don't know and we import from the EU daily

Tiger

[amt] 18/6/2019 06:44

Perhaps somebody could ask about the potential impact of Brexit at the AGM.Thanks in advance.
I suppose there are 3 aspects. The fall in the pound vs USD which seems to be accelerating already. What would say a further 10% fall do to gross margin for example.
The impact on the supply chain. Perhaps no impact at all as sourcing outside of EU?
The impact on consumer spending. Toys and bikes are descretionary items and perhaps would be hit hard in a recession. The first two items can to some extent be mitigated but a fall in consumer spending would be difficult.
This is why I think they need to build a strong balance sheet to give them flexibility for dealing with what could be a very difficult period ahead.

[davidosh] 17/6/2019 13:28

Yes I met Chris at an Agm in 2014 I think. How many of us are going to be there this year? Do Tandem provide any minutes of the Agms as I have missed the last three. I remember having a kidney removed on the day of one Agm so that was clearly a barrier to getting there.

[castleford tiger] 15/6/2019 17:21

I have met Simon and Chris works for Rb and I know him.
He is unsure if he can attend but has been with me before.
tiger

[davidosh] 15/6/2019 15:10

It may be a standard resolution but surely not appropriate for a small illiquid small cap like Tandem as it kills liquidity even more.

I certainly think the dividend issue needs a full discussion at the Agm and for the board to accept the wishes of the majority or provide good reasons why it cannot be increased.

The Bragg that you are thinking of is Chris not Simon. We do not know the way Simon Bragg would vote on dividend but as a 10% owner I cannot imagine he is happy receiving such a low yield on his investment. If either of the Braggs are attending on 27th June then they can put forward their views. I presume they are not related but both appear to be brokers. In fact with such useful links they would surely see the benefit of some research and forecasts in the market.

Every shareholder I have spoken with agrees on having a significant dividend increase and more shareholder engagement.

[castleford tiger] 15/6/2019 09:02

point 5 is standard on almost all Company AGM notices.
Point 2 you would need to call an EGM.

Personally i think it should be raised and debated and a clear mandate given about future dividend policy.

I think other areas such as communication with shareholders could be improved.

Not sure what Mr Braggs position is on the dividend but clearly as he speaks for 10 of the 20% we collectively have its key to any decision.
Major holders control about 45% is that right?

lets see how it goes but i can see EPS north of 50p this year

Tiger

[davidosh] 14/6/2019 11:34

Agm resolutions...

2. To declare a dividend of 2.89p per share

If shareholders want a more meaningful dividend of say 12p (three times covered) and there is no reason to retain the earnings could an additional dividend be agreed by majority vote at the Agm ? Or do we need to call an EGM?

5. To authorise the Company to purchase its own shares.

Do we really want to reduce liquidity even further? I have a small cap institutional investor that has asked me about the company and they would take an investment here but there are not the quantity of shares available that they would require to take a position.

[castleford tiger] 13/6/2019 14:38

That s the difficult bit to work out.
1% added is 50k shares approx.

That s 5 holders of 10K that wanted out.
I calculated that 20% of the shares here are lost so float is not big.

Tiger

trades on the 12th
3 210.0 10000 O


206.0
228.0
18:19:31 10,000

10,000 25,174
2 217.9 10000 O


206.0
228.0
17:15:00 10,000

25,174
1 210.0 15174 O


206.0
228.0
17:15:00 15,174

15,174

[davidosh] 13/6/2019 14:19

Where is the selling coming from?

[castleford tiger] 13/6/2019 13:18

We can spot when they are bidding for stock and who it is.

These approx 50k were bought mon/wednesday

Like him i think there is still huge upside here

tiger

[cwa1] 13/6/2019 10:14

Simon Bragg increasing:-

[amt] 10/6/2019 18:03

I agree as I mentioned a presentation at the AGM is fine, good idea.
Yes I recall the Burgess time and it was a distraction from the business. I think that was a one off.
Anyway if we get a good update at the end of the month the share price should start to take care of itself.
All this subject to nothing bad happening on the economy. That assumption is looking shakier by the day.

[davidosh] 10/6/2019 16:46

amt....All companies I invest in (except Tandem) do results presentations and offer a meeting to go through the results in more detail. What is wrong with that and it makes shareholders more aware of the market and strategy each company is involved in.

We are the owners....not spectators or indeed speculators ! Why should we not want to know more detail around the hard figures every six months? It may encourage investors to take the company seriously. A presentation costs very little except the directors time and I have already offered a venue but the directors refused.

That is why I take the stance I do. As an owner of 15 years I am treated like I am not worthy and I have emails to prove it. All I want is the same as offered by other companies and a sensible dividend. That would hopefully get the company to a good valuation and keep it there.

You may not remember but look what happened nine years ago when the undervalued company shares were bought up by Andrew Burgess and then the directors had to effectively pay him off to go away ! That benefited nobody but Burgess and those who wanted rid of him. The share price collapsed afterwards but was still much higher than when Burgess entered the fray.

[amt] 10/6/2019 16:09

I am inclined to agree with 7 in that no more acquisitions required unless something exceptional comes up.
Dividends should be increased gradually overtime to continue the trend. However they need to build cash reserves for potentially very tough times ahead.
I am very much against getting Brokers involved. Such a waste of money and time and leads to short termism. Do more harm than good plus very expensive.
A presentation at the AGM would be fine plus (as we already have) couple of trading updates per year.

[simso] 10/6/2019 15:50

Yes agree with all 7 David....with numbers 1 and 7 at the top of my list, and both clearly related points.

[castleford tiger] 10/6/2019 14:33

The majority

[davidosh] 10/6/2019 11:14

amt...I am merely suggesting that with an asset like the HQ building we do not need to have a 14x cover of the dividend especially with the increased profits and cash likely to flow through this year.

Investors do not meet the company, see any research, forecasts or brokers notes so they stay clear. I merely want regular contact and presentations through thick and thin to show the directors actually care about shareholders and that there is a benefit of being listed.

My own 'wish list' for external shareholders


1. Dividends to be increased significantly ((The cover is far too high)

2. Broker research and forecasts needed (The BoD do not want any)

3. Better shareholder engagement. (Not just once a year at the Agm)

4. Presentations to shareholders etc (None for nine years)

5. Independent Non Exec directors (None are independent under AIM & QCA guidelines)

Additionally I know a number of shareholders on these BB's have also stated..

6. Remuneration is too high for an AIM tiddler

7. Stop spending on wasteful acquisitions.


So which of these do other shareholders on here agree or disagree with ?

[hatfullofsky] 10/6/2019 09:16

Nice break out here, Strong performance leading to results

[amt] 10/6/2019 07:39

David If the economy takes a big hit then relying on borrowing or selling the freehold as implied in your statement doesn't sound a good idea to me. Once you start borrowing from banks then a lot of time would be consumed looking after that. The banks also have an impact on strategy so to be avoided if possible. The economic outlook in my view is worrying. Not only Brexit paralysis or no deal but the dreadful prospect of having Boris in charge. The country and consumers are up to their eyes in debt. A very deep recession is quite possible.
I don't think Directors or shareholders for that matter would accept a low opportunistic bid. The Directors have a lot of shares so like you will want a much higher share price that fairly values the company.
I haven't attended the AGM it's too far to travel.
I think they have a talented and dynamic board and an optimistic about the future. I am happy to let them get on with running the business and let the share price catch up with events. I don't think we will have long to wait now. A good trading update on the 27th and 3 quid should be in sight. If they can generate 3 m in profits in the year ahead and have a reasonable outlook then 5 or 6 quid would be reasonable.
I have observed companies on AIM that spend too much time trying to push their share prices. It works for a while but over the longer term the only thing that matters are the financial results. The one exception being tech or pharma companies that have new products under development and then future potential governs the share price. I get the impression the Tandem management are very busy. Just look at the amount of activity that is going on in this business. New product designs and launches. Cost control against an unfavourable exchange rate. Complex supply chain management. New IT systems etc etc.

[davidosh] 09/6/2019 14:10

amt....I have bought shares over a very long period of time and supported the company by retaining my shareholding. The board have always refused to provide all the standard listed company information I have mentioned such as broker research, forecasts and presentations. Tandem will shortly have a HQ building that will be totally debt free and it is generating significant amounts of cash. The problem is that this cash does not find its way into the shareholders pockets and the long term returns until the recent share price move have been awful.
If harder times come then we have the excellent security of that freehold and my fear is that if the company is valued so lowly then another company will see that low valuation and the assets and make a clever bid that incentivises management to take it leaving shareholders high and dry and without ever having their fair share off the returns.
If you base an offer on the level of remuneration being paid out that already means that directors are not going to give that up easily and will need incentivising to do a deal so shareholders will be the ones losing out.

Is that not a reasonable assessment? Have you ever attended an Agm? I have been to four nothing ever changes.

[amt] 08/6/2019 21:40

If you had bought shares over a longer period of time rather than buying at a peak you would have had a reasonable return. Its bad luck to have bought at a peak. Mind you the Aim index has gone from 3000 to below a thousand over same timescale so it's outperformed the market over that timescale.
I am confident that if the trading update at the AGM is good the share price will head towards 3 quid.
I do worry about the UK consumer though. If the current Brexit paralysis continues or things get worse. Corbyn being elected for example. A collapse in the pound could have huge ramifications for consumers. The country has massive debt to finance and if interest rates are pushed up to save the pound the interest on that debt could become unsustainable. In those circumstances an economic collapse could occur.
The last economic crisis was greatly cushioned by borrowing collosal amounts of money. The next one that's not going to be possible. Let's see how a post Brexit world pans out before we asked for higher dividends.
In these circumstances companies will need strong balance sheets to survive. Now is the time to build a strong balance sheet while the going is good.