Tamar European Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 06/8/2010 14:20

Nickcduk - On 26th July you posted:

"Hopefully they will be able to get some competitive borrowing terms on refinancing. Earnings should be pretty impressive if they can."

In view of Sleepy's comment above, could you perhaps elucidate your expectations of what might/could happen with any near-term refinancing?

[sleepy] 06/8/2010 09:49

I find it hard to get a grip on this one though I have not tried very hard as have been put off by their need to refinance debt expiring in Oct 10, April 11 and Nov 11 (which may require disposals)

[affc21] 02/8/2010 14:56

Obviously I'm not a very good chartist!!!

SKYSHIP - cheers for the chart, although not what I expected.

[skyship] 02/8/2010 14:45

Hmmm - sentiment is strongly against the sector & the share price has recently broken through its 2009/10 uptrend and the 50day MA has crossed the 200day MA. All pretty bearish, but it would seem as though the RSI is indicating oversold so might see a rally back to 35p as we approach those Interims.

[affc21] 02/8/2010 09:20

nice one SKYSHIP, TEIF chart certainly does not give you any confidence as it stands, at the moment.
Combined charts paint a very diferent picture.

[skyship] 02/8/2010 09:05

ADVFN have stated they will merge the TEIF chart to the KEIF history, so the chart will make some sense again. It will show the support level @ 30p; which at this rate looks as though it is going to be tested quite soon!

[skyship] 01/8/2010 17:27

1st August today, so the next RNS may well be the Interims which were on 28th August last year:

[nickcduk] 26/7/2010 09:43

Hopefully they will be able to get some competitive borrowing terms on refinancing. Earnings should be pretty impressive if they can.

[skyship] 26/7/2010 07:51

Another disposal:

[affc21] 24/7/2010 19:54

Hi SKYSHIP, for what its worth my thoughts are:

First the potential negative(s):

That the Euro could very likely have further to fall, especially after Fridays European banks stress tests (with a lot of critism from the financial press), so next week could prove interesting.
And with it the obvious fall in value of NAV via the currency exchange rate (as you are aware).



Positives:

Property portfolio is based in western Europe and Scandinavia (with a much reduced risk of a country default).

The German Ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 106.2 in July, up from 101.8 in June, a much bigger rise than analysts had expected, The institute said the business climate in the manufacturing sector had "brightened strongly", which should be to TEIF's benefit.

Also on Thursday, another closely-watched survey - the European purchasing managers index - also rose by more than expected, boosting confidence in the economic recovery.



A bit of a mixed bag, but nice discout to NAV.

Still a holder here, but watching the Euro...

[skyship] 24/7/2010 18:13

Many times. I think both you & Kimboy have a handle on the value there; however the voids and the Spanish exposure are the negative factors which will hold the share price down regardless of the dividend prospects - in the short-term at least.

Best of luck there, but personally I want no more exposure to a friendless sector - for the timebeing at any rate...

[sleepy] 21/7/2010 22:57

SKYSHIP - have you looked at Matrix (MERE)?

[flying pig] 21/7/2010 19:05

I rather agree for both my ISA & SIPP, but not in huge amounts. I think lowish risk, reasonable yield and scope for capital appreciation.
Property is not flavour of month.
Equally biggest gains are from out of favour sectors.

[skyship] 21/7/2010 13:02

Yet they continue to drift - now 32.75p-33.0p!

Real Estate has been a big loser this year with the sector being the 2nd worst performer - now negative 15%. We've also been hit by the weakness in the Euro.

Still, this surely will be a survivor. So, on the basis of a minimum estimate of c.65p NAV, I am wondering whether to top-up....

Views anyone?

[scburbs] 24/6/2010 17:08

Nordic economies (more than 1/3rd of TEIF's portfolio) in robust shape.

"Partly due to strong government finances, the Nordic countries are well equipped to resist international turbulence. Because of Sweden's continued strong exports, high domestic activity and unexpectedly robust economic performance early in the year, we are raising our forecast of Swedish GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0 to 3.6 per cent.

...

The Nordic countries have the potential to resist the crisis. Because of strong government finances, their fiscal policies remain relatively expansionary. Denmark and Finland are also benefiting from improved competitiveness due to the weaker euro, but in Finland and Norway, growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, justifying a slight downward adjustment in our GDP forecasts.

In Sweden, however, economic growth is increasingly beginning to stand out in a European perspective. We expect GDP to climb by 3.6 per cent in 2010 and by 2.5 per cent in 2011."

[affc21] 01/6/2010 18:32

and here is the World Logistics Performance Index website:

[affc21] 01/6/2010 18:28

scburbs, was rather surprised at France's number 17 ranking myself, but this is what King Sturge's European Industrial Markets Report 2010
(26.03.10) said about France:

France's economic prospects remain muted for
2010, with occupier markets likely to continue to
be hampered by lower levels of consumption and
high transport costs. Available space has also risen,
in part through delivery of a number of speculative
schemes started in 2008. However, a lack of new
development, specifically speculative, should assist
with the absorption of existing new stock.

Rental levels did not change significantly in 2009,
but there has been an adjustment between
headline and net effective rents throughout France.
More rental incentives are now to be expected
from owners wishing to let their premises, who are
prepared to grant sizeable concessions.

There was a marked slowdown in investment
activity in 2009, both in terms of deals completed
and the number of investors actively looking at
industrial product in France during the year. This
was primarily due to a stalemate in the pricing
expectations of buyers and sellers following the
credit crunch. Financing was also extremely limited,
with the typical size of transactions having reduced
to €10-20 million, further impacting on volumes.
There were no portfolio sales of logistic properties
during the year.

The investment that took place centred on Paris
and Lyon, reflecting the focus of investors on more
established industrial markets. AXA REIM acquired
a 42,000m² logistics facility in Brie Comte Robert,
in the south-east of Paris, while AEW acquired a
15,000m² logistics platform in L'Isle D'Abeau for
€8.9 million, along with a 26,735m² logistics facility
from Goodman in Zone du Beck near Lille for €16
million.

The established industrial markets around Paris and
Lyon are likely to continue to attract investors in
2010, putting pressure on prime yields as demand
increases over the year.

[affc21] 01/6/2010 18:12

badtime - TEIF (formerly KEIF) paid out a total 1.5p for the year ending 31 December 2009.
With probably same again this year, but hoping for more eventually.....

[badtime] 01/6/2010 17:58

these pay a div,,,excuse my laziness and TIA

[skyship] 01/6/2010 17:45

scburbs - apologies, I hadn't actually recognised before that you possess such a professional knowledge on property matters. I had you down as one of the regular posters who understands the sector, but not to such an extent. Nickduk may be another. Do you mind if I ask whether you actually work in the sector?

[scburbs] 01/6/2010 17:24

affc21, Thanks for the info. Good to see all the TEIF territories near the top except France (any idea why it is so low). Main reason for suggesting selling The Netherlands properties was that they don't have critical mass.

Skyship, Bizarrely (given Norway have raised interest rates) sterling has performed strongly against NOK in recent months so not a massive difference, i.e. both throwing off FX losses just one slightly more than the other. I believe they have some limited hedging (probably €/£), but not sure how much. You can see by the performance table since listing that they are mainly unhedged (main increase in NAV is FX). In fact the FX gain since admission was 36.2p at 31 December so slightly more than the current share price! (although the FX gain will have fallen back this year).

[affc21] 01/6/2010 16:57

World Logistics Performance Index (just showing the European rankings below):

Country - World Rank 2010

Germany - 1
Sweden - 3
Netherlands - 4
United Kingdom - 8
Belgium - 9
Norway - 10
Ireland - 11
Finland - 12
Denmark - 16
France - 17
Austria - 19
Italy - 22
Spain - 25
Czech Republic - 26
Poland - 30
Slovakia - 38
Turkey - 39
Hungary - 52
Greece - 54
Romania - 59
Bulgaria - 63
Croatia - 74
Serbia - 83
Russia - 94
Source: World Bank 2010

The quality of Germany's trade and transport-related infrastructure is a key factor behind its first position in the World Bank's latest global Logistics Performance Index.

The above is from King Sturge's European Industrial Markets Report 2010
26.03.10

[affc21] 01/6/2010 16:57

scburbs-

According to Knight Frank's European Logistics and Industrial Report 2010
13.04.10:
Rental levels have remained relatively robust in Germany and the Benelux countries.



I agree with your thinking in that the so called Logistics Corridor (which includes: Germany, France and the Benelux countries) would be the most favourable place to focus on any property investments.

With Germany ranked at number 1, Sweden ranked at number 3, Netherlands ranked at number 4 and Belgium ranked at number 9, according to the World Bank's latest global Logistics Performance Index.

Edit: Also France ranked at number 17

[skyship] 01/6/2010 16:52

Surely that Norwegian tranche has been rather good for us - being outside the Euro - or is it all currency neutral through derivative swaps!?#~

Anyway, it is good to see that the successful disposal programme continues apace - this is really beginning to look extremely attractive, even allowing for current Market conditions...

[scburbs] 01/6/2010 15:47

Would be good to see them sell some Norwegian property (a bit excessive at 23% of portfolio) and get rid of any remaining Dutch property (only 3% of portfolio at 31 March). They could then focus on France, Germany, Belgium and Scandinavia. When they are ready to start buying Germany would seem to be the one to add given the weaker Euro should benefit its export driven economy.

I am not really up to speed with how the Belgian economy is doing. It seems in reasonable shape based on the below.