Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[middlesboroughfc] 08/6/2018 14:31

Looking forward to another profit warning here. About time

[igoe104] 08/6/2018 14:12

Normal service resumed, CC2014.

[igoe104] 07/6/2018 17:43

it just seems the company has to pull up trees to remain s/p.
extremely frustrating share to say the least.

[trekker60] 07/6/2018 16:51

The share price behaviour of this one really is very puzzling and the published buy/share indications muddy the waters even further. I sold part of my small holding* in this (2000 shares) just after 4pm today but the LSE website page for TCO lists it as a buy!
*Purely because the share price performance over the last year doesn't make sense (at least to me) and that makes me wary.

[cc2014] 07/6/2018 16:41

Barclays downgraded Kier today. Kier down 7.7% Rest of sector not looking too clever either today.

The usual pattern is a massive downgrade to let their mates in cheap. Let's see what happens over the next couple of days.

[ivancampo] 07/6/2018 14:27

In reality the hope that we clear the seller has faded once again. I am beginning to question whether there is something terminal here. Could it be being shorted? Would seem reckless given the market cap and positive statements of the previous years. Don't think I've ever seen an overhang take so long to clear in 25 years of watching the market.

[cc2014] 06/6/2018 13:11

It seems the spread is slowly closing to the upside and the battleground is taking place at exactly 86.8.

Who will win? The buyers or sellers? I'm not sure but at least the sellers are selling at a pace the market can absorb their stock.

I'm pretty hopeful the whole pattern of endless selling has changed now. I expect we have a few more to go when we hit 90 as everyone can see the resistance on the chart and of course 100 is a round number so I expect we will get some more there

GLA

[squarepeg86] 04/6/2018 10:02

Really hoping so now!

[cc2014] 04/6/2018 09:36

Well. Now 87.0 -90.8 and a 10k buy at 89.8

Maybe, just maybe we are going to get somewhere this time.

[cc2014] 01/6/2018 09:42

This is ridiculous. One minute the price is 83.2-84.0 The next it's 84.0 to 90.6

MM's clearly don't know what to do with it or are playing games.

[deanowls] 30/5/2018 13:31

Do they have much recurring revenue for after sales?

[cc2014] 30/5/2018 12:40

Now, this I like. I spent alot of time talking to Mike Crowder about this at the AGM and T. Clarke are focusing much more on FM going forward. In particular they are not trying to compete with the likes of Mitie on price but expanding on the basis of reputation and quality.

I think the strap-line is very telling.

We believe in quality
We believe in direct employment
We believe in skills and training
We believe in partnerships with our clients


I look forward to seeing how fast they can grow this part of the business and of course this sort of work has much more margin. Grins.

[cc2014] 30/5/2018 09:08

Indeed we have a proper market which to me started after the AGM update which seemed to clear out the large long time seller.

It seems to me the share price is now acting "appropriately". If someone wants to buy a couple of hundred thousand shares they have to push the price up and when it pulls back a little people are looking to buy the dips and buy when the spread tightens.

[ivancampo] 29/5/2018 09:55

Looks like we've got a market at last, hoping for big volume, persistent buyer in 25k lots.

[dozey3] 26/5/2018 16:30

On many metrics for sure CTO is undervalued, but some look beyond the next year or two to the risks of the latter part of Brexit transition (if it ever happens). The fear is that home, i.e. UK investment will fall off a cliff, and CTO with it. I retain a small holding but have more in Renew (RNWH) which concentrates more on infrastructure non-discretionary spending. It's IHT exempt too AIUI. Why CTO is on the main market bears me.

[sharesoc] 24/5/2018 14:23

There is a detailed report on T.Clarke's recent AGM which can be found in our members area here:

To access the report, you'll need to be a full member of ShareSoc, which is a not-for-profit organisation that supports individual shareholders and campaigns for shareholder rights. If you're not already a member you can join here:

Once you've joined, you'll receive an invitation to register for our "members network" private social network, from where you'll be able to access the report (and reports on 100s of other meetings). If you're already a member and have any difficulty accessing the report, please do not hesitate to contact us here:

[rivaldo] 24/5/2018 10:35

Inching up again today, with a nice 8k buy at 88.6p just now.

As regards N+1 Singer, it's good to be conservative at this early stage of the year - always better to underpromise and overdeliver.

Once the interims are out, or there's an earnings-enhancing event such as an acquisition, will be the time to upgrade on profits and cash etc.

[tuscan4] 23/5/2018 11:55

I totally agree with you CC2014 regarding the lacklustre N+1 analysis. For CTO to be so positive this early in the financial year, to me suggests that at the very least the £7m pre tax should have been edged up even modestly. As for their dividend projections these are so conservatively based. My view would be a 1p interim this year followed by a 3p final, partly to rebalance the payout, and still covered c 3.5 times.
On the cash front there appears to be a further Eton payout which is probably at the full £1m level but even so with no acquisitions and not much further Capex £13m seems slightly low.
If the cash is north of say £14m a dividend costing £1.7m is a far cry from the dividend generosity of this company in earlier times. With much higher gilt yields on the way,and with generous pension funding, by the end of 2018/mid 2019, the pension deficit could halve. A little more patience is required but the long wait is nearly over.
Chartwise, a decisive move above 90p would suggest a catapult up to the 125p area.

[cc2014] 23/5/2018 10:11

tbh Rivaldo I find the N+1 note a fairly lazy piece of work.

I get the EPS to 13.5 based on 41,829,577 (as annual report) plus share options exercised of 180,000 = 42,009,577 and a corporation tax rate of 19%. Maybe it's me or maybe N+1 haven't realised the corp tax rate changed about a year ago.
And therefore the P/E becomes 5.9

In addition I cannot figure where they get their £13m net cash from. We ended 2017 with £11.7m net cash (page 1 of annual report). Add £7m profit less 19% corp tax (£1.3m) less dividends £1.5m should give us net cash of £15.9m, £2.9m more than N+1 come up with.

N+1 may or may not be right about the cash but there's no explanation for their number.

Further the current dividend is 3.5p and rose by 0.3p in 2017. To suggest it's only going up by 0.2p (5.7%) this year and 0.2p the year after when the profit is going up by 7.7% this year and CTO don't need the cash seems unlikely, really unlikely.


I think part of the reason CTO's share price is so low is that N+1 aren't doing a very good job. Not enough attention to detail.

[rivaldo] 23/5/2018 09:34

For the record, here's N+1 Singer's take on the AGM statement - for the record, they go for 13.2p EPS this year and 14.1p EPS next year (with 3.7p and 3.9p dividends respectively):

"Positive order book momentum provides a share price catalyst
N+1 Singer view

T Clarke’s AGM statement confirms positive order book momentum and reiterates full year expectations. The order book has risen from £337m at the last year end to £368m at the end of April, which is impressive, given T Clarke’s disciplined approach to tendering. With current year revenue forecasts now fully covered, we expect today’s update to be very well received. In our view the shares are overdue a re-rating, currently trading at very modest multiples of earnings (6.1x P/E with a 4.6% dividend yield).

Positive AGM update

For the full year, revenue and adjusted PBT are expected to be in line with our forecasts (£300m and £7.0m respectively) and net cash is expected to continue its trend of year on year improvement (we are forecasting £13m at Dec ‘18).

The statement also highlights strong growth in the order book, which at 30th April stood at £368 million,increasing from £337 million at the end of December. Encouragingly, T Clarke is seeing no shortage of opportunities but as ever, management is applying a strict policy of only bidding for projects that meet its own internal risk analysis criteria. In this context, the significant growth in the order book is particularly impressive. Management announced a 3% operating margin target at the time of the prelims in March (current year forecast 2.7%) and we would expect the growth in the order book to be consistent with this ambition. The order book growth is broadly based but Newcastle and the North West both have some capacity to fill.

Since the last announcement on 27th March, T Clarke has won several important projects, including electrical infrastructure resilience works for BAE Systems and fit out work for Cancer Research at the International Quarter, Stratford. It has also won electrical infrastructure work at Battersea Power Station. Separately, Tony Giddings has resigned as a non executive director. As a result, Mike Robson will become Senior Independent Non-Executive Director and Peter Maskell will chair the Rem. Comm.

Impact on earnings & valuation

We make no changes to our forecasts, noting the positive outlook commentary. As well as providing excellent visibility for the current year, which is now fully covered, the order book also includes £145m of revenue secured for FY19 and a
further £40m beyond that year. We believe the Group is well on track to achieving its margin targets, particularly since the underperformance of Central and South West (loss making last year) has been addressed."

[ivancampo] 22/5/2018 16:08

50k sell order at 90p proves our seller is still active, never breached this level previously when we've tested. The wait goes on.

[rivaldo] 22/5/2018 09:12

Great to see you here GHF - good timing methinks as CTO appears to be about to (finally!) re-rate.

I never have specific price targets michaeljames, but it's pretty clear that there's lots of upside from the current derisory rating.

[cc2014] 22/5/2018 08:41

Depends how long you want to stay in the trade, how fast the economy picks up and whether we get a bubble 175p? 250p ? 300p? higher?

[michaeljames1] 22/5/2018 08:10

Price targets for CTO?