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CTO Tclarke Plc

123.50
-0.75 (-0.60%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tclarke Plc LSE:CTO London Ordinary Share GB0002015021 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.75 -0.60% 123.50 122.50 125.00 123.00 123.00 123.00 72,964 16:35:01
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Special Trade Contractor,nec 426M 8.4M 0.1589 7.74 65.01M
Tclarke Plc is listed in the Special Trade Contractor sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CTO. The last closing price for Tclarke was 124.25p. Over the last year, Tclarke shares have traded in a share price range of 105.00p to 159.00p.

Tclarke currently has 52,850,780 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Tclarke is £65.01 million. Tclarke has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 7.74.

Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3026 to 3050 of 5100 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  132  131  130  129  128  127  126  125  124  123  122  121  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
02/1/2018
12:43
I have the feeling that something has changed with this share as the intraday dips as the spread closes seem to be being bought into rather than ignored. Not every day mind but most days.
And on other days if the intraday spread doesn't close to the downside by lunchtime buyers are prepared to nibble away at the offer.

cc2014
22/12/2017
19:35
I don't see all buys this morning. I see 6 trades today (4 on NEX) and a preponderance of selling...
edmundshaw
22/12/2017
13:52
All buys this morning, and the share price falls. it sums this share up over the last 12 months.
igoe104
21/12/2017
14:19
I'm guessing that the MM's got themselves in a mess after the share tip and ended up unbalanced which is why they needed to push the share price down and take out the stops.

We can see today that the market is now in "free-flow". the 900 buy at 13:05:01 immediately results in a 900 AT buy on the book at 840. Likewise the same pattern with the 602 earlier. And to some extent with the 10k at 12:57:13 but the MM's could only take out 7898 as that's all there was on the book.

All good for us - I'm feeling less frustrated with CTO today.

cc2014
21/12/2017
14:10
Certainly interesting to see the spread at a mere 0.5p (83.5p-84p) - I can't remember it being that good for a long time. Hopefully an encouraging sign.
rivaldo
21/12/2017
11:06
Those two trades at 79.43 and 79.5 are very difficult to get my head round. They are clearly delayed but it looks like they are delayed from yesterday as the prices do no align with anything this morning.

I have to assume that as usual the MM's have been playing their games and at least one of them is where they have taken out a stop at 80. I suppose they could be one hour delayed and someone had to sell at below the bid due to the size.

I don't know really either way the share price is going in the right direction today and I'm interested to see what happens as and when we get a few more buys as SING are at 83 with then a gap on the order book to 88.

I don't know why I bother looking at it really. I have no intention of selling for some considerable time. It would just be nice if we could get back to 90. That at least would be a price which I would understand to be a resistance point as it has hit there 6 times and refused in the last 2½ years.

I think things have moved on considerably since any of the times it was last 90 but it's somewhere I guess we will have to stop for a while unless it gaps through on news.

cc2014
21/12/2017
10:36
Excellent summary hastings, thanks for posting:

Extract:

"With conditions being described then as buoyant the trend has subsequently been further endorsed through its November trading update where the board stated that the company was on track to deliver results in line with market expectations.

This should see full year revenues of £300m delivered and leads broker Singer to pencil in £330m for 2018 with pre-tax profits moving to £7m and EPS of 13.2p. The dividend is also anticipated to be raised to 3.7p which at current levels equates to a yield just north of 4%."

rivaldo
20/12/2017
09:49
Nice write up, thanks.
effortless cool
20/12/2017
09:46
May be of some interest https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.cambridge-news.co.uk/business/time-invest-company-thats-worked-14060676.amp
hastings
20/12/2017
09:23
The first buy today has been at 86.6p, prompting a nice move up despite it only being for 465 shares. Let's hope further buying causes similar upward moves :o))
rivaldo
19/12/2017
09:59
I have never used the 4 Traders website before and found it really useful. There's some information on there which is hard to find elsewhere and I like the graphical way of portraying the trend information. I shall definitely use it again. Great stuff.

I was most interested in the cash flow per share which they have at 24.6p per share for 2018 and 27.3p for 2019. These figures are slightly higher than mine but I've just been taking the forecast profit and deducting dividends and corporation tax on the basis that capital expenditure would cancel out depreciation. Maybe they don't include those or maybe don't include the dividends as that's funded out of the cashflow. I guess they see investment being less capex or perhaps it's because as a business with increasing turnover that would generate cash too as they get paid mostly within 30 days but payroll is monthly and the distributors are 60 days.

It doesn't matter regardless, it's the magnitude of the number I'm interested in.
51.9p of cash flow per share in two years on a share price of 85p is nuts. Even if it's 25% lower than that it's still nuts.

What are they doing to do with the cash as there's only so much strengthening of the balance sheet you can do (pension deficit, pay suppliers a bit quicker, get rid of the last £3m revolving credit facility, pay suppliers on 14 days to generate early payment discounts).

Within a few years you are only left with 2 options at that sort of rate of cash generation:
1. much higher dividends
2. acquisitions/expansion


I see despite the massive spread this morning the MM's are making people pay very near the full offer price.

cc2014
18/12/2017
17:36
Very good analysis CC2014. Thanks.
Interestingly on the 4 Traders site the EPS estimates(which I know are highly erratic/unreliable) show 14.4p/18.7p and 18.7p for 2017/8/9 respectively.
Your target between the best and worst case scenarios for 2018, is 18.3p not far away.
Using your net cash estimates of £14m to £16.5m for 2018 and taking the 4-Trader EBITDA number of £9.3m the Enterprise value ranges between 2 and 2.3. Even if we account for the fact that part of this net cash is customers advances, these EBITDA numbers are absurdly low INHO.
Also, the chart, if one is interested, looks encouraging.

tuscan4
18/12/2017
14:04
Let's hope we're saying goodbye to the 70s for good this time :-)
chrisb1103
18/12/2017
13:42
...and thar she blows :o))
rivaldo
18/12/2017
12:13
Good to see the price stable after the rise last week.

A few sellers but the level of conviction of those holding seems quite high and no-one dumping large quantities so it looks like the large seller who was selling down at 73 is over.

cc2014
17/12/2017
09:54
But what about the pension deficit, which stood at £22.3m at the half year, which no doubt is holding the share price back.

Well, bond yields will have improved as a result of the interest rate rise, so the deficit will have fallen. Also equities around the world have risen and in some regions strongly so the deficit will be smaller at year end. Less then £20m I hope although I don't have the skills to calculate this.

In any event the pension deficit doesn't particularly worry me. The defined contribution scheme was closed in 2010 and the weighted average age of liabilities is 22 years which presumably falls by a year every year. The company have a recovery plan in place which is paying in £1.5m a year on top of the staff contributions which aims to remove the deficit in 10 years.

It's also likely interest rates and therefore bond yields are in an upward cycle now so that's going to reduce the deficit.

All in all I reckon sometime in the next five years, either a rise in bond yields, the impact of chucking £1.5m a year at it and each year less people are in the scheme or a combination of all three will get the deficit down to below £10m.

If the company is making £8-11m a year and their cash pile is building they are going to have to decide what their priorities are: dividends, reduction in pension liabilities or investments. No point in sitting on lots of cash. They might as well make some one-off contributions to knock the deficit down, whilst raising the dividend at the same time.

cc2014
17/12/2017
09:34
Yeah - that would be my worry that a number of the buyers on Thursday/Friday won't hold as they don't have any long term conviction on the trade.

So, this is why I'm staying in for some considerable time likely to be 3-5 years.

The current situation
We know the year end will be underlying £6.5m profit, year end net cash of £9m because the trading statement from 17/11/17 states that. Order book was at a record high at that stage too. In addition we know there will be another £1.43m from the fraud recovery which will be on top of the underlying £6.5m from the update on 17/07/17.
So that's an EPS of 12.54p and a P/E of 6.61 based on a share price of 82p. Pretty tempting in itself

The future.
We know from the first half results on 08.08.17 that the South region took a hit of £2.6m compared with it's usual performance and we know this has been fixed, so won't reoccur next year.
We know the order book is at a record high so turnover is likely to be up but certainly not worse.
We know the acquisition of Eton will produce at least £0.3m profit as that's the amount it made in it's published accounts before acquisition.

So, worst case scenario.
£6.5m + no improvement in margin, no additional turnover, add £0.3m from Eton, add £2.6m from South and deduct say £1.5m as something comes along to bite them we don't know about. Gives profit of £7.9m and an improving cash pile of around £14m
A lovely EPS of 15.24 and a P/E of 5.38

Best case scenario
£6.5m + improvement in margin as rest of sector say £1.0m, impact of natural 5% increase in turnover £0.3m, add £0.5m Eton as cost saved to relocation of office and economies of scale, add £2.6m South, add new Birmingham and other 3 offices £0.2m (slow start) and no more hits. Gives £11.1m profit.
An amazing EPS of 21.41 and a P/E of 3.83 and net cash of around £16.5m


So, take your pick, a profit somewhere between £7.9m and £11.1m seems about right to me

cc2014
17/12/2017
07:22
wouldnt be surprised if NT choose to dump his shares on Friday L)


Mitie hits year low on property management hangover

ggbarabajagal
15/12/2017
16:58
was thinking of buying this earlier in the week but missed the rise. But then saw that 15 yr chart and bought in.
mfhmfh
15/12/2017
13:39
Accelerating nicely now. The m/cap is still only £35m, so a little buying could give rich rewards here.
rivaldo
15/12/2017
10:05
I fully agree that this is worth at least 125p, however, the 2008 dividends/dividend cover will not return whilst the Pension Deficit remains high. What we need and what I believe is happening is a rise in bond yields which will shrink the deficit. Once the pension deficit falls, and this could happen quite quickly, CTO could be re-rated, not perhaps to the old 2007/8 peaks but maybe to north of 200p.
tuscan4
15/12/2017
08:58
Oh and one more thing. Back in 2006 when it's turnover was £186m so 60% of what it is now, the profit was £6.6m so same as today but the dividend was 11p a share.

The profit peaked at £13.4m a year in 2008 when the turnover was £100m less than it is now and the dividend was then 13p.

They've got net cash of £9m, turning of profit of £6.5m and rising so sooner or later then dividend has to rise with it from our current paltry 3.3p

cc2014
15/12/2017
08:47
Well I'm holding for 300. May be persuaded to sell some for 250. lol

100 will just be a temporary position on its way back to where it used to be.

And for the cynics here is a chart from NMD in the same sector. Suggest you overlay the timeframes. I bought this at an average of 115 when no-one loved it. It's still out of favour but at least it's getting there.

cc2014
15/12/2017
08:26
Cheers CC2014 - excellent news.

Looks like the NT's followers are really making a difference. The timing is perfect as it seems that the seller is now gone.

Hopefully we will see a rise to the suggested 100p. It's about time the market recognised CTO's transformation in respect of M&E and digital.

rivaldo
14/12/2017
16:53
Naked trader Robbie Burns

T Clarke (TCO) looks great value. Took me bloody ages to get it at the sell price as sometimes the spread is silly, but I managed it with a lot of patience on direct access. I also had to end up buying the shares at the buy price too (how annoying)

A very confident statement with an underlying profit of £6.5 m forecast. AND it has net cash of £9m. The market cap looks too low and I think it should easily head back to highs of 90p but I reckon it's worth at least 100p. It's simply under the radar.

cc2014
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