Synairgen Takeover Rumours (SNG)


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Synairgen Takeover Price

Synairgen Takeover Forum Posts

Noj it’s all about the science now, if phase 3 and Warp speed produce and meet the endpoints then all the rest will fall into place and the SP will take care of itself, then the partnership or takeover will come. I am sticking to my statement that there will not be a guild here at some point next year.
Could it be that RM has stated licencing, franchise etc? No takeover just plain steady explosive growth for a tiny pharma.
He would be a very naive politician not to! Currently businesses critical to UK public health can be prevented from takeover. SNG fits exactly into that category so it would be extremely difficult for Boris and team to allow such a big fish to go the Americans unless a back door means could be worked out. Somehow Biden has to claim it's American and it may save some of the top medical establishment a lot of embarrassment if it were to somehow 'disappear' and reappear as an American outfit.
Not 100% sure we need take-over ramping...What`s the point? Why would anyone want a bid 30-50% above the present sp? Get to £10 and then start ramping...LOL The experts agree it's highly unlikely. Potts65010 Feb '21 - 11:58 - 36331 of 36343 0 4 0 Sorry, can't see a Pharma gambling 1 or 2 billion on trial results of 48 dosed people. Any bid surely will come after successful P3/Activ 2. njb6710 Feb '21 - 12:19 - 36336 of 36343 0 2 0 I posted yesterday... On industry attitudes to takeovers, as Waterloo has said, risk appetite and price are highly correlated. A £1bn takeover is for most large companies a small sum of money, so they may be prepared to take on more risk. However a £10bn acquisition is material and no CEO is going to want to be viewed by shareholders as being reckless with their cash.
Freedosh good to to hear your thoughts on a T/O from an industry insiders perspective, but wouldn't traditional acquisition strategy go out the window, in times of a global pandemic. Surely this is now so unique that traditional perspectives dont apply, also wouldn't a US pharma be concious of their govts role in including SNG in Activ2 trials and lastly as Waterloo would confirm, the overwhelming scientific research and evidence now links interferon depletion (active ingredient of said target takeover company )with severe outcomes of Covid related disease, that waiting for P3 becomes somewhat irrelevant, and given the potential role this drug could play on a global stage, wouldnt FOMO be coming into play on the big Pharma's approach to this.
Little Minx I think RM has demonstrated his protective stance on the company hence why the US II sold out. They wanted to take control and saw the placing as the opportunity. Imo RM and the board saw this and protected against it maybe why Numis came in to help broaden the options. All speculation but I think they know this could be worth a lot and won’t throw it away to the first bidder. They believe the drug works so I don’t see a takeover by choice yet....
Funny I was thinking of a hostile takeover as no doubt RM is very protective of SNG and who could blame him.
Fantastic. Acknowledgement in Parliament at last and confirmation they will look into preordering! I am surprised that hasn't caused an uplift in the price....
7.5% is impressive. When do we launch the takeover bid Nobby?
We could be chucked a curve ball at any moment. A big Pharma may want a takeover and offer a big wad for your shares. A double-edged sword, though, since although we would get a big premium on the current SP it would be a bit "early doors". Would much prefer a takeover later on when the SP is, at least, in double digits.
I’ve always had in mind a takeover of about 3Billion but actually, how do you ever price something as valuable as SNG001. Within a few weeks, we could be saving tens of thousands of people across the Globe. I tend to recall from an RNS late in 2020 that come Jan, we’ll be making 100,000 does per month.
I don't think the Telegraph article is to blame for today. We had a rise yesterday possibly because the anticipation of this RNS. Synairgen released it on their website yesterday after all. Today some of those are selling as is typical of the buy on the rumour, sell on the news philosophy. A lot of people on Aim are traders and are not looking to invest in a share more than a few weeks. When considering that the RNS doesnt bring the timeline of what we expected forward, then its not far fetched to think we dint see a rise today. That doesn't mean people are going to be right to trade now. Like I mentioned before, I think we are getting to the point that licensing,EUA or even a takeover is becoming more and more attractive by the day. This was another tick box that has eliminated risk to interested parties. I believe its too risky to be trading this share at the moment as the news flow will not as predictable as some will like to think.
Clearly they think that with no P3 results until fucking JUNE this is likely to drop once more. I think so too, but I will continue to hold just on the off-chance there’s an out-of-the-blue FDA EUA or a takeover. Zero confidence in that rank incompetent Marsden. I thought the delay to P3 commencing was so it could be conducted quicker? June isn’t quicker...
Could the Guild launch a takeover bid?
RNS: Cato's Coffee House is pleased to announce that, following the reverse takeover of The Forum branch, it will now be known as 'Lions Corner House'. FT Editor's Note; It was to be known as "Christian's Corner House" but unfortunately the Lion won.
What might Synairgen be worth in an agreed takeover? It’s highly unlikely that any approach would be hostile. And, of corse, I am assuming Phase iii has an extremely positive outcome. Let’s be highly conservative and assume in calendar year 2022 the company achieves a turnover of £1.5bn. To this figure we apply a gross margin of 75% and a net margin of 70%. Therefore £1.5bn x 0.7 = £1.05bn Corporation Tax @ 20%. = (£0.21bn) Net = £0.84bn Now we apply an exit multiple of 10 times. So £840m x 10 = £8.4bn £8.4bn divided by 200 million shares undiluted Equals £42 a share. The above is highly subjective and you can make your own minds up regarding turnover, margins, corporation tax and exit multiple and extrapolate accordingly. The figures may look a bit fanciful to some but the take-out terms would be accretive to any of the top 5 pharmaceutical companies by market capitalisation.
I don't think there is any doubt he sees a takeover ultimately. However, it may be a licensing deal followed by a takeover...
One thing is for certain. Magic Monday made several people millionaires 'overnight'. I'm pretty sure that approval or takeover will make several more millionaires here.
So here is proof of the potential of covid related stocks if you look at TZPC (US OTC stock) and you were smart enough to invest just £100 (yes one hundred pounds) in July 2020 and sold in early December 2020 you would have made a few MILLION pounds !!! Check it out yourself !! This is the company that makes the freezers which store the Vaccine!!! So my hunch is once SNG001 is approved then in the absence of a takeover we will see £100 plus per share eventually but near term £8 to £10 before the end of Q1 2021 !! Do your own research and this is not a ramp !!🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀😷😷
ng SNG is for me a takeover target for big pharma, provided the P3 delivers and there are no mishaps. If I am correct, then the highest share price we will see is the one that is agreed for the sale of the company. I took a position in October and have neither sold nor added and will continue to sit on my hands. SNG accounted for circa 5% of the value of my investments at the time I bought in so this is a low stress holding. I would only reconsider my approach if the underlying investment proposition materially changed. For me, it is all about the end game.
"Probably a hostile takeover" you're just trying to cheer me up...
Probably a hostile takeover
Hostile takeover on the cards
So, if this goes to £50 I trust Phileas will tell us where the party's at. For that we need P3 success and lots of stock-piling so we are never again caught with our pants down when the next virus comes. A takeover by Merck or some such would limit the upside to £5, which wouldn't be great news but still a decent return for some.
Until possibly February 2021, when we may get some news out about trials, I expect the price will carry on declining. We may get the odd bounce along the way? Like all these "Covid" related stocks, before the pandemic, these were just bumbling along at a low price, then hopes they were going to save the world cause hysteria! I'm in for a small holding and if it comes good in February on the back of product news, or a takeover, then happy days. But...if not I'll accept my loss and move on. Too many people panicking now with money they cant afford to loose!
SloppyJoe2 is on here? Oh dear, it looks like this board has been infested with a nasty case of Ian Westbrook-itis. He lost a ton of money on several bad investments (PRG, VRS, IOF). He does zero research, follows his bessie mate Festario into other bad investments and blames everyone but himself. - fire the CEO? check - the company are rank incompetents? check - begging for a takeover? check He says the same thing about every company he has invested in. Best filtered and ignored. Although if his threats of violence get out of hand (which they will do), just contact the police and tell them Westbrook is at it again, and they'll pay him another visit.
I see that over on the Guild thread posters like Vitec are throwing in the towel and saying they would welcome a takeover at around 300p. I wonder what they make now of Gobby’s wild ramping over the summer - EUAs to arrive in September, no P3 required. Remember that? It could and should have been very different. Nippleboy has a LOT to answer for...
Nicebut, I still hold to what I have written regarding a takeover and you have only confirmed to me what I thought I already knew. The biggest risk to RM and SNG is someone not waiting for results and taking the plunge. A dropping SP does no one any favours. At 89p a cheeky bid at £3 could easily be on the cards. As each day passes and we get closer to a positive P3 confirmation it gets harder for any party to be able to have an opportunistic bid as it will become evident that SNG is worth more than £3 a share. That is why if you are in the game for SNG your hand maybe forced before someone else decides to force it. This is like a game of cat and mouse.
There is a third party in place handling negotiations on a takeover/partnership with big pharma. Let's hope it's not STX ;-)
Teamwork - you looked at the share price lately? If I didn’t hold, think I’d be wasting my time on this turd? Only hope now for shareholders under water - and that’s anyone who bought after 20th July - is a takeover. Get this piece of shit flipped...
Oh I wish someone would takeover this piece of shit. Surely there is some large pharma out there who wants to vertically integrate the value chain - from testing and vaccination through to therapeutics?
Takeover in dissimilar position?
Dazzerman - why? Once the vaccines were announced and it became clear that SNG had missed the covid boat due to Nippleboy's rank incompetence, this went back to being a COPD/asthma play. On that basis it will probably recover, but not soon and not to the levels we previously hoped for. Best we can hope for short-term is a takeover in the 500-1000p range, something like that...
I think a takeover is highly likely, if 001 gets approved around the world. And I hope the very first thing a new owner does is fire Nippleboy's lame, pathetic ass...
No chance of takeover I think. Maybe they would get peanut sales for covid19...but sng001 is much bigger than covid. Governments stockpiling the drug in future is a teasing prospect.
"Hopefully in the fulness of time we'll be able to say wow, that was Synairgenius!" Not with Nippleboy in charge - he's *utterly* fucking clueless. He's completely bolloxed a once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity... The best we can hope for now is a takeover, probably between 150-200p...
I'm with Bignads on the possibility of a takeover, would seem rational to a company/institution with deep pockets who could wait 12 months or less until revenue appears.
Big Pharma is unlikely to stake build in a small-medium cap AIM company, as it’s not worth their time / the egg on the face of a volatile share price to the middle manager who suggests it should retail shareholders take their money and run. A hostile bid (i.e. one which the SNG board can’t or won’t recommend) is even less likely. Bear in mind a takeover by way of a scheme of arrangement or full blown offer will take the best part of three months, by which time we might have top line data from the P2 home or P3 global studies. What’s more likely is a depressed share price piques the interest of savvy healthcare investors, in the mould of Polar Capital, that might take advantage of the dips build a disclosable position. Indeed, we don’t know how many are sat on holdings at just shy of 3%.
p.s. RM isn’t interested in short term bumps in the share price, given he can’t trade it, oh, and he’s focussed on spending the £87m he’s just raised at £1.75! That said, he won’t want it getting any more depressed as given the highly distributed nature of the retail heavy shareholder register and lack of >3% shareholders, he would struggle to defend against a >£3 takeover offer at this stage, hence the need for these kind of semi-interactive shareholder events.
So we FINALLY get peer review, Fauci mentions SNG - and it’s worth a lousy 20% on the share price. Oh, and big holders are bailing out at a rate of knots. If I wasn’t so far underwater I’d be joining them.Bring on the takeover, get this piece of shit sold to a large pharma...
Ripe for a takeover this lot, I would say.
Bring on the takeover.
What a missed opportunity for SNG. I could fucking weep. They moved too slow, and didn’t play the political game *at all* - and shareholders have suffered huge losses as a result. The best we can hope for in the short-term is a takeover bid - though I can’t imagine it would be for more than 150p, tops.What a clusterfuck.
O/T. The choice is yours. A Public Service broadcast
Waiting confidently and patiently here in the meantime there was a very interesting investor call for Novacyt this afternoon where GlaxoSmithKline was mentioned as a takeover candidate for Novacyt. Although their share price has rocketed this year I feel it could double again from current price in the shorter term and I've been building a significant position over the last few days.
O/T 12 and a half Euro squid taken Mutterings about Glaxo interest but could be complete garbage. I don't want to see a takeover - the earnings are spectacular and going up every day.
Thanks Freedosh, interesting insight and helps manage my (and Mrs fin to be’s expectations). How do people feel about a take out at this stage? RM’s language seems to indicate more of a partnership/licensing agreement, I think. I think my preference is get the trial done successfully, get the approval(s), seal the sale of a few hundred thousand+ doses, have a licensing arrangement in place to support the sale of a hell of a lot more which should get us to £12 - £20 a share? If we had a licensing deal in place, does that then rule out potential takeover offers in the near future do you think as a big pharma would be tied in on the drug everyone wants?!
That was a great interview, the team have clearly been working very hard on our behalf. Fingers crossed for a decent Phase 3 result and then who knows where the share price will be. RM has a partnership or even a takeover in his mind I believe. Nice to hear the home trial being pushed as well.
roll on 28th Oct when all this bullshit will hopefully end. roll on the takeover.
Could a takeover approach come sooner than we think? If you were interested in buying Synairgen to get hold of 001 anyway, why not do it when the fundraise closes and they have £87m cash *and* 001? I appreciate that for a big pharma that isn't very much money, but for anyone else - say a vulture capital company - looking to buy it, run P3 themselves and then flip it to a big pharma at a hugely increased value, it might be attractive? Just a thought...
If Oranolio occasionally got it wrong I'd have no problem with that - we all make mistakes; even Nobby, who thought that country approvals would come in September and that no P3 would be required. But I can't remember a single occasion when O has got it *right*. Perhaps he can enlighten me? As for me being a doom'n'gloom merchant - I prefer to think of myself as a realist. I've been losing money on stocks - especially on AIM - long enough to know that anything that *can* go wrong usually *does*. Obviously like all of us I hope that SNG will very much be the exception: but it isn't a done deal yet (whatever 'it' is in this context - widespread acceptance, a takeover etc). There's still plenty that can go wrong - including P3 failing, in which case we'll be back below 50p sharpish. I don't think that will happen, otherwise I wouldn't be here - but really, WTFDIK?
"I believe tomorrow will go down as a very significant day in Synairgen's short remaining history" before the takeover at a massive premium? ;-)
From lse board.. Link to video posted earlier by volatility. see 13mins 30. hTtps:// So maybe fundraise up to 160 million shares at £3 per share to fund massive production and sales, then takeover at £8 billion. So £50 a share exactly. Nice to have a dream!
viking - well if it is a takeover let's hope there is more than one predator! Make 'em pay!
takeover approach coming? there must be *something* solid behind a rise of this magnitude?
Great posts today. I am very confident too a la most of the Guild's bullish members, but one needs to reflect that all here have their own agendas and modus oppurendi. Some are long, some spread bet some day trade and some do combinations of all three. So I will not, without evidence; be swayed by an optimist nor by a member who might dampen spirits. Nor by talk of fast cars, villas or retirement. I will be swayed though by further positive news, regulatory approval whether temporary, emergency or elsewhere in the world, by a serious order, by a global licensing deal, or serious wind of a takeover in process. Or by any unexpected negatives that may emerge.
nicebut - precious little evidence in the trades /volume / price of anyone expecting a takeover approach just yet...
>> peachie You can guarantee that whatever we ask, the company won't say a fund raising is imminent even if it is. They also won't say that it's to facilitate an imminent takeover even if it is. So sadly a waste of time asking the company in my view...
Numis are coming in to help rationalise the shareholder register (as is their standard pitch) - far too many retail investors and not enough IIs / long holders, hence the wild swings in the share price. finnCap are more than capable of handling any takeover defence, and may in fact already have a defence advisory agreement in place with SNG.
They did a fundraise before without them Why would they need them now ? A takeover is far more likely if this is for a specific reason
>> peachie A takeover with the protracted process it involves would be a major distraction from the job in hand. A licensing deal with a view to a takeover at a later point is much more likely IMHO.
Everyone has been waiting for the next step here with SNG. And it came yesterday. Although I was, the market didn’t seem impressed. But that’s AIM In the short term , what is the best hope of an SP boost ? Regulatory approval somewhere world wide ? Takeover ? Edit ,, I suppose like Adman I’m questioning reasons to stay so heavily invested ..... reassurance needed !
bring on the takeover. sick to death of the manipulation in this share. if anyone wants mine for the equivalent of £2bn MC they can have them...
At this rate we could be a very cheap takeover target. I am surprised we are not attracting more II buying at this level. RM does need to update us with a timeline if no news lands. As for other pump and dump shares.. this is the SNG room !
Saturday September 19 2020, 8.00 pm , The Times Canaccord Genuity reveal their top COVID takeover targets
"If a takeover occurs you can bet its going to be a real battle between several pharmas. I'd be very sisappointed if there were only one." amen to that, brother.
If a takeover occurs you can bet its going to be a real battle between several pharmas. I'd be very disappointed if there were only one.
"I suspect we'll be acquired way before the full potential is achieved and therefore it's unlikely we'd ever hit those heights." unless of course a takeover battle breaks out...
Is that £6 *per country SNG001 is approved for*? let's imagine (best-case), SNG001 is approved for the EU, USA, UK, Brazil, Mexico, India etc etc etc. I know that not every covid case is suitable for treatment with SNG001, but are we really saying that in that case SNG the company only has a MC of £1bn? That seems very low to me. quite apart from anything - and whatever Synairgen may actually be 'worth' - I hope that irrational exuberance would kick in with decent press coverage, and that every PI in the world would want to buy into a 'cure' for covid. And with so many shares locked away by IIs that dosn't leave many to be bought and sold. And then of couse there's takeover speculation (or perhaps actuality, who knows?). Call me delusional, but I'm hoping - if things were to happen as outlined above - for a valuation of £5-10bn, at least at a peak valuation.
Dave444 - Personally if they had been looking for a placing they would have done it already. I suspect some government cash will be chucked our way and a licensing deal struck with our eventually suitor. As much as I’d like a takeover they take time and would be a distraction heading into what could be another covid peak.
>> dafad As I said before I think a licensing deal or deals is much more likely in the short term than a takeover. There is no doubt that the potential in the COPD indication makes the asset more attractive from a long term point of view and increases the chances that it can get approval to treat severe respiratory viral infections across the board. There is no doubt the value has gone up for a major Pharma. Will it happen in the short term.....who knows?
Nobby,thoughts on a takeover/partnership? To me the silence from the co is telling,they know what they have and do not need to put out rns's just to justify the shareprice
IMHO I can't see a takeover happening any time soon, licensing will be there plan, As for a RN i can't see that happening next week, mid September more likely.
Wrt a takeover, sadly I just can't see it in the short term. The protracted process involved would be a massive distraction from the job in hand. Much more likely is a licensing deal with the possibility of a takeover in the future. Of course that in itself would lead to a much higher price but I am not sure we will get the complete conclusion in the short term which would be the best outcome.
With all this new investment appearing, is that making a takeover more or less likely in other’s opinions?
In my view the funds that have been buying are not end users line eg Astra Zeneca they are professional fund managers so a takeover will not come to my mind from that source ...... but it?s v interesting to observe professional US buying ......
In my view the funds that have been buying are not end users line eg Astra Zeneca they are professional fund managers so a takeover will not come to my mind from that source ...... but it’s v interesting to observe professional US buying ......
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