Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[martinfrench] 27/10/2020 11:04

agree plat, lowering the bid on not very many sells at all

i'm thinking more thursday, and from looking at my rns list, slp tend to do it a bit after the usual 7.01-7.04 window, dont know if this is for the south africa open or not

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 21:57

Well we're all here for the same reason at the end of the day I guess.Grateful to have people to bounce off of in here and chew a few facts, thought i was on my own for the last week or so :-PWhat i did find funny though whilst reading the statement again, was that the BOD are commited in avoiding BB boards and social media as to not get involved or fuel gossip and speculation... That is pretty much all me :-P

[martinfrench] 26/10/2020 21:41

Some fairly chunky buys for us as well

[greggphilips88] 26/10/2020 21:37

Plat,
thanks. That's fair. I'd summarise your points back to say that,(caveats and known risks aside)shareholders can reasonably expect at least 70k ounces, with good reason for optimism that they could achieve 80k ounces, or c20k per quarter. I buy that. Thanks for bothering to log in to explain.

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 21:28

Well either way, a gross profit per ounce of $1,500 gives us an ebitda of...$105,000,000 on 70k a future pe of just 3x earnings....Or $120,000,00 on 80k a future pe of just 2 x earnings.Seriously undervalued, even if we have a 'conservative' year. 15 million dollars isn't actually going to change the outlook that much imo.

[martinfrench] 26/10/2020 21:00

Well they should beat that, better not do a centamin

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 20:59

Now I may be optimistic and maybe even proved to be a romantic fool...

But we know that SLP has been operating at 100% capacity and there has been no such disruptions in the mine on Samancors side of the fence. I honestly feel that 20k ounces is nailed on for Q1 and providing there is no further lockdowns or any other unknown black swan events, lurking around the corner then i see no reason as to why the performance can not continue through the remaining quarters of the financial year.


Obviously the proof is in the pudding and we won't know for certain until Q1 drops in our inboxes this month and until the rest of the year turns out. But I see no reason to accept the 70k target as the top end of expectations. It is very much as the chairman states, it's a conservative estimate, given the covid unknown.

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 20:52

Okay here go.. Chairman's letter, verbatim versus interpretation.

"By the end of February 2020 and around the time of our
HY1 results, that basket price had hit a rather frothy ZAR43,800"

Basket price has been back in this ball bark for the last 8 weeks of Q1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Despite what was clearly a very challenging HY2, against the COVID-19 background, the operations performed well and
produced 69,026 ounces. Reporting 40,003 ounces at HY1, we were well on track to achieve stated guidance. Ultimately,
COVID-19 and South Africa’s lockdown regulations which closed down the mining sector for an entire month, followed
by the imposition of restricted capacity, which in total affected production for almost six-weeks and cost us approximately
10,000 ounces."


Production had returned to previous levels by the end of June 2020

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"We will take conservative assumptions into FY2021 as to when the sector might recover. A key reasoning behind our
informal indication as opposed to formal guidance is not to enter into a guessing game throughout the year. The reality is
such that a second wave of COVID-19 will impact production. Some companies have even gone so far as to suspend
guidance for FY2021 as there are too many unknowns. As such, Sylvania will be targeting around 70,000 ounces for the
coming financial year."


70k is a conservative and informal guidance based on further possible yet unknown COVID restrictions.

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 20:38

Martin this 10k is part of the confusion.. I'm just reading the chairman's letter again but I can't copy and paste from it on my telephone.Literally logging on to my pc instead so i can post where I'm coming from on 80k

[martinfrench] 26/10/2020 20:35

They knocked off 10k for covid if that's what your referring to

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 19:56

I don't think that contradicts my expectations either gregg. I too also think they'll deliver on the target set at approx 70k ounces by the management team.Obviously throughput is only part of the production equation... Quality of the feed will either make or break a target. But at 100% capacity that is circa 20k per quarter, feed grade permitting.We can only guess on the qaulity of the feed, that's something we can only be sure about after it's already been processed.

[greggphilips88] 26/10/2020 19:22

Didn't both the Chairman and the CEO refer to 70k for the coming year in their June 2020 Annual report, released on 09 September 2020.
This is a direct quote from the CEO: "Based on the level of expertise, experience and commitment of our management and employees and recognising their ability to embrace the challenges together during the past year, I am confident that we are able to deal with the challenges ahead and I expect our team to deliver on our target of approximately 70,000 ounces of PGMs for the coming year."
Has this changed? I'm pleased if it has but can you share where you've seen it or why you think that's changed?

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 17:05

Are you referring to Q4 on the 27/07 which was down 50% on Q3 owning to COVID shutdowns?


The same communications confirms that ramp up back to 100% throughput was achieved by the end of that quarter?


Given that there was no contrary news flow for the quarter, Q1 should be a record production and at record basket prices. Costs per ounce will be reduced by around 40% over Q4 too, but will probably be nearer to Q3 production costs. all in all it should be a gross profit of around 1500 bucks per ounce

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 16:38

you're miles out CB7, I hope. I'm not entirely sure where you're getting that from, can you post some links?

[cb7] 26/10/2020 16:36

Not my numbers, but company ones. If their estimates are good, then 17k per quarter. It doesnt sound much lower per quarter, but over a year this gives 68K.
Of course they are still very good value, but I dont want investors to be disappointed when results arrive.

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 15:49

How many ounces do you want this year cb7?We can use your numbers, if you'd prefer?

[cb7] 26/10/2020 15:41

Plat, why will production be 80k this year? Just a few days ago you actually hinted at record quarterly production, (thats above 20k). The company, a somewhat more reliable source, said on 27/7, which was almost one month into Q1, that they anticipated reduced production of 10-15% this year.

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 14:57

80,000 units at a gross profit of $1,500 is 120 million a year ebitda

[martinfrench] 26/10/2020 14:43

that will all be true plat if they can make 50mill per year(£) which bthey are very capable of at these prices

in fact even that would be cheap

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 13:51

Relatively low volumes too, there's literally zero media effort to brag about the huge earnings here.£1.50 to £2 tokens for sale at 70pCrazy

[martinfrench] 26/10/2020 13:15

67-69p now, man do i love this stock

[plat hunter] 26/10/2020 07:37

Hopefully SLP will further derisk and get another chrome deal bagged at some point

[epicsurf] 25/10/2020 22:21

hxxps://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Fuel-Cells/Hydrogen-Boom-Could-Lead-To-New-Platinum-Bull-Market.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+oilpricecom+%28Oil+Price.com+Daily+News+Update%29
Platinum lagging gold

At a time when precious metals such as gold and silver have been taking out all-time highs, platinum has continued to lag.

Indeed, at a price point of $916/oz, platinum is trading at a big discount to gold's $1,915/oz. That's highly anomalous given that platinum has historically traded at a ~30% premium to gold hence the moniker 'rich man's gold.' A return to the historical average of 1.3x would see platinum climb to nearly $2,500, or 173% higher than current prices.

Other than platinum being oversold, demand/supply factors are also in its favor. In its latest report, the WPIC forecast a supply deficit for the platinum market of around 336,000 ounces, a sharp contrast to its pre-Covid-19 estimate of a surplus of 247,000 ounces. Further, the organization says the ability to increase supply remains extremely limited and could take several years before we see new supply growth.

Maybe Biden winning the elections in November is all it will take to kick start another big platinum rally. But with the hydrogen marketplace predicted to eventually hit $11 trillion, this could be another unstoppable energy megatrend regardless of who wins

[plat hunter] 23/10/2020 16:39

Another good day

6.5% for the week, I've had worse.