Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 02/9/2019 09:50

Would have liked to see higher forecast production given how well they did in Q4. Can't help feel they may be being conservative having had to reduce expectations last year due to power & water issues.

Mining rates and grade will be variable but the improved recoveries from additional circuits should remain and add a tailwind to this year.

Sale of Grasvally roughly in line with Liberium's estimate. Not quite $10m so 2.7p/share instead of 3p but mainly due to weaker ZAR. This was not in Liberium's 68p valuation either so if they do issue an updated note I would expect this to now be part of the core valuation plus some small increase due to improved PGM pricing.

[leopoldalcox] 02/9/2019 09:44

Good results, but my question is: what are they planning to do with all this cash?

[russman] 02/9/2019 09:27

1c divi costs about 1m STG. Better than last year but still relatively small % of cashflow.

[thirty fifty twenty] 02/9/2019 07:54

excellent results and updated presentation.

there can hardly be better years when production is up, PGM prices are higher, all in costs low, developments on track/on budget, CASH flows good, CASH in the bank and exploration value crystalised. To me these the results are after many years of hard work now which are now so clearly evidenced.

At 42p, I look forward to the market recognising the value in the business and exploration assets - now that one site has been sold at just above book value of c.6p CASH, I expect the market will take notice of the remaining exploration assets with a book value of c.18p


All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
SLP is in my top5 hldgs

[nickwild] 02/9/2019 07:46

annual report looks good. divi up to 1 cent

[russman] 01/9/2019 08:22

I await final results; hopefully soon.
& the plans for all the cash.

[mfhmfh] 30/8/2019 16:16

Currently on CNBC.com:

Platinum futures now at $940/oz

Palladium futures now at $1,537/oz

[mfhmfh] 30/8/2019 12:08

Currently on CNBC.com:

Platinum futures at 927

Palladium futures at 1493

Also Rhodium going through the roof

[dangersimpson2] 30/8/2019 00:21

4E PGM spot now up 27% in ZAR since 30th June Y/E. Can't help thinking that this short-term strength may be too much too soon and correct at some point but it certainly bodes well for Q1 results.

A couple of things that stand out from the Liberium note on SLP:

- The 68p valuation was based on $ forward prices that are pretty much now below current spot for all years in the DCF. Spot pricing is probably up around 40% in rand terms since the note was written.

- It appears the company books revenue at provisional prices but then actually gets prices when the pipeline is delivered 3-4months later. So the record Q4 production should actually get the benefit from the current rising prices on the higher production (assuming that the higher spot prices feed into realised prices for the company.)

- 9p of the potential upside from 68p to 106p is from the sale of Grasvally & Volspruit which are non-core assets for SLP as they involve primary mining. Stronger PGM pricing will surely encourage deals to be completed on these assets even if the higher but volatile spot doesn't have a big impact on the price obtained.

- rest of the Liberium upside is from potential new plants if SLP's host Samancor decide to invest in new mines (or re-open old ones). The chances of these developments increase with better pricing outlook.

- discount from gross basket price to net basket price has dropped below 15% in 19H1 as new circuits have reduced residual chrome content, but stronger gross basket may see this back towards the 20% level. Overall, with these effects combined, I estimate a 10% rise (fall) in Rand PGM 4E gross basket price having a 15% impact on net earnings.

[stoodio] 28/8/2019 14:56

Relaaaaaax brother... nothing goes up in a straight line.

[the bull] 28/8/2019 14:43

Quite right, but a nasty dip around 33p

[stoodio] 28/8/2019 14:32

It didn't dip below 30p

[the bull] 28/8/2019 13:47

What was that dip back below 30p all about then, a share gathering exercise?

[nickwild] 28/8/2019 13:01

update should give details of divi

[dangersimpson2] 28/8/2019 11:10

More interested in Q1 figures at the end of October than the FY results. FY20 production guidance is the only bit of new news that I'm expecting to be with the FY results.

4E Spot Basket up 21% in Rand since the end of Q4. Not sure the byproduct pricing which was a bit weaker in Q4. Assuming this hasn't dropped much further then I'm modelling about 30% increase in £ earnings, on production of around 20koz for Q1, (Q4 production rate was probably not sustainable in the short term) due to the better 4E pricing.

[mfhmfh] 28/8/2019 09:38

update could be tomorrow

[redtrend] 28/8/2019 08:56

Thanks Nick - interesting it was originally on Events Calendar as August 2019.

Hopefully it's pushed back in light of the strong PGM basket and SLP are re-wording the dividend to bump up the yield a wee bit! I jest but you never know.

Rhodium has hit $4,300 today. Overall the SLP PGM 4E basket price is just shy of $1,450 per Oz.

[nickwild] 28/8/2019 08:12

September Annual Report 2019

from SLP timetable - exact day not given

[red5] 24/8/2019 08:43

When are the results out?

[death by donut] 22/8/2019 11:51

Just trying to add some protection after last years falls, give all thats going on currently. Just lost a bit of profit is all .DbD

[mfhmfh] 22/8/2019 10:35

39p being paid

[redtrend] 21/8/2019 12:08

To add to danger's list of other new updates from Accounts (normally released end of Aug, so could be this time next week):

- Dividend: we also don't know final dividend, although have a rough indication from House Broker Liberum. So dividend yield may also be in the Directors Statements in the Accounts. Perhaps a yield at this current share price of 3-4%?

- Presentation: normally accompanies release of Accounts with some key forecasts and overview. It normally has a forecast on production out to 3yrs, Project Echo status, Capex & EBITDA forecasts etc.



Rhodium is now in touching distance of $4,000 (currently at $3,955), With Plat $840 and Pall $1,480, the SLP PGM basket is around $1,390 per Oz. AISC with ZAR at 15.2 is likely around $525 (fluctuates dependant on ounces produced of course). So once you take into account refining fees of circa 18%, the SLP margin is now a significant $615 per Oz.

Net Cashflow for FYE June 2020 could therefore be:
- 80,000 Oz x $615 margin = $49.2m.
- Deduct $8m for Capex and $10m Taxes = $31.2m.

With a market cap of £110m ($130m), normalising for $21.8m cash in bank and circa $24m+ trade balance in SLP's favour, SLP's market cap is only 2.7x Net Cashflow. So can see where Investor Chronicle and House Broker Liberum are coming from with their targets of 50p and 60p respectively.

[stoodio] 21/8/2019 10:23

Never understood why people put stops on

[death by donut] 21/8/2019 10:10

No , they just taking the preverbial after i stopped out at 34p :-)