Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[redtrend] 18/4/2019 08:52

Hi someuwin - did Liberum provide any statements with the increase?

Overall the PGM basket is holding up very well, but this quarter gone in short term could be some what testing, depending to what extent the Eskom load shedding impacted host mines operations or SLP operations directly. However Liberum as house broker may have had some partial insight to this before releasing the updated note.

Guess we will find out on 31st April when quarterly report is released.

Going forward it looks like there hasn't been any load shedding since 23 March and the new Eskom CEO put in place 15 months ago claims to have a handle on it:

hxxps://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-04-17-surprises-at-eskom-are-over-says-ceo-phakamani-hadebe/

[someuwin] 18/4/2019 08:15

Liberum Capital reiterates BUY and increases target from 35p to 68p.

[mfhmfh] 11/4/2019 21:27

'Palladium’s golden hour'

Bullish article on palladium and platinum in IC today. Liberium mentions SLP as a safe play.

[redtrend] 07/4/2019 12:51

Clearly you misunderstand - I'm not interested in D&A and never mentioned it in my post. You keep raising it, but as you correctly stated already it's a non-cash item. I clearly stated the specific items I focused on (cash (incl equivalents) + debt (incl equivalents)) as I personally care about cash/ debt position and forecasting free cashflow going forward. If you wish to get pedantic about my use of "balance sheet" over "statement of financial account", your prerogative.

The crux and that we all appear to agree on (so really don't know why it's caused such a fuss on the SLP board, as it's not to "troll" on JLP board), JLP quarterly earnings do not assist in understanding "free cashflow" nor profit. And so personally for me with all the other missing data (Capex, G&A costs, Cash & Debt positions), it's completely useless. If you find benefit from JLP reporting "earnings" with all the omissions and missing data, more to you.

For the avoidance of any doubt and benefit of those on this board who might not be familiar with JLP, considering it was Deme who mentioned JLP here, there is no harm in restating this. For any other miner or producer who follows industry standard reporting, EBITDA, AISC etc. with other metrics, it does help with estimating "free cashflow". So conversely there is no harm in stating JLP "earnings" do not.

You can pretend it is only I who have conflated the two things (JLP quarterly earnings versus free cashflow), but it's a ridiculous statement to make if one lurks on the JLP boards and clearly sees how the majority extrapolate the quarterly earnings into "free cashflow" or even worse, profit (excluding yourself, Plat and Goldi that I am aware of from this back and forth). I give you Exhibit A above by Bullster with his "PROFIT" table and he's by no means alone. Notwithstanding he's out by a factor of x4 with huge amount of errors, I honestly don't know what he's showing. When he states "profit", does he mean "free cashflow" or does he truly mean "profit" (as the latter is even worse). Either way it's completely and utterly misleading and once again demonstrates why some things do need to be clarified, as it's unintentionally or intentionally conflated time and time again.

I've also never seen anyone correct Bullster's tables or other posts on JLP board which conflate earnings with free cashflow or profit. Unfortunately people seem to ignore your EBITDAG&A metric.

You've quoted my statement where I referred to your made up metric, which you had to invent specific to JLP: "EBITDA & excluding G&A". My point was clear and I honestly don't understand your tangent or point in response. EBITDA G&A serves absolutely no purpose whatsoever, either to help understand impact on cash/ debt position, forecast free cashflow nor profit/loss. As I said, it's a chocolate teapot.

For miners/ producers, EBITDA by itself is already useless, so to add another layer of complexity serves no purpose. Only "Group EBITDA" is ever useful and even then as most want to understand "free cashflow" (as I won't 2nd guess the non-cash item D&A the Company Accountants may apply), you need to understand Capex.

Ultimately we all have different levels of risk and what we require in terms of transparency. The riskier the play, the more transparency I would require. JLP is riskier than SLP, but to counter this it does not provide detail I need as I already stated (Kabwe Feasibility Study or Internal Report, AISC, Capex, Cash + Debt positions, working capital movements in quarterlies). And with the recent rise to £56m, at present the risk to reward with lack of transparency isn't for me.

If JLP can deliver Kabwe by Q1 2020 with no further dilution, on time and on budget, that's another story... But big big ifs.

[sleveen] 06/4/2019 20:05

"Sleveen - I looked at the balance sheet (cash, trade balance and debt). D&A does not come into this, at all"

-------> D&A is expensed thru' the P&L but is a non cash expense and remains on the balance sheet as cash current asset if not applied elsewhere.

" but it serves no purpose for investors and doesn't square the circle of the huge differential between unaudited reported earnings and actual balance sheet."

------> earnings reported in P&L not the balance sheet.

Not sure what your point is.

As goldie states on the JLP thread, clearly your're not an accountant.

[bullster] 06/4/2019 18:09

JUBILEE METALS - PROJECT TARGETED EARNINGS

3 PROJECTS ALREADY ON TRACK



PROJECT
EARNING
METAL
QTY/MONTH
STAKE
PROFIT/MONTH


PLATCRO







PLATCRO
YES
CHROME
6,500 T
100%
£450,000


PLATCRO
MAY 2019
PGM
2,800 ONZ
75%
£945,000


HERNIC
YES
PGM
2,500 ONZ
100%
£1,125,000


DCM
2020
PGM
835 ONZ
100%
£380,000


DCM
YES
CHROME/C
8,800 T
50%
£400,000


KABWE
Q4 2019
LEAD
1,250 T
87.5%
£826,328


KABWE
Q4 2019
ZINC
680 T
87.5%
£675,920


KABWE
Q4 2019
VANADIUM
125 T
87.5%
£1,343,672


TJATE
PENDING
PGM MINE
SALE/PARTNER
63%



.







.



MONTH
£6,145,920


.



YEAR
£73,751,040



,
JUBILEE NOW OWN THEIR OWN REFINERY AT KABWE WHICH GIVES AN EXTRA LEVEL OF EARNINGS.

THE REFINERY COMES COMPLETE WITH IT'S OWN ACID PLANT WITH A 100 TONNE PER DAY CAPACITY AND WILL SELL ACID THAT IS SURPLUS TO IT'S NEEDS .

[plat hunter] 06/4/2019 14:18

That's fair Red..

I don't see JLP over and above the broker target by that time either, so I certainly don't think you'll miss out on too much by waiting and watching.

[redtrend] 06/4/2019 14:14

Plat - I'm not completely shut off to JLP, however for now on a "risk-reward" basis and with lack of information from management on certain items I personally would require, I can not justify buying at £56m market cap. When compared to value elsewhere versus risk.

That is not to say I don't believe JLP will continue to go up. As I stated, it appears to have a lot of momentum and could well keep going up. In turn SLP may well go down in short-term who knows (particularly with JLP, SLP and SA miners potentially impacted by SA load-shedding in Q1). However I tend to ignore short-term movements up and down if I'm in it for LT (subject to fundamentals changing of course), as I don't have the free-time to micro-manage my shares on day-to-day basis.

I was interested in JLP due to Kabwe, but without a Feasibility Study or even internal Project Report, there is nothing for me to believe it can be delivered within 12 months, on 12m Capex.

If JLP started reporting AISC, Capex, Cash + Debt on a quarterly basis, I think you would get a lot more interested Parties. And I would definitely take another look. Or if they released more detailed Kabwe Capex in next Q report.

I will keep an eye on the FYE June 2019 Accounts in November. Even with a 4-month delay, it will be a guide to JLP cash position and again I may change my mind depending on balance sheet health, kabwe production timeline and market cap at that point.

[plat hunter] 06/4/2019 13:56

I hold both SLP and JLP and i think It's equally important to talk about both companies in both threads. As both companies share similar process's and operate in the same industry space, in fact JLP is only on the path it is now, thanks to a chance meeting with SLP.

You might just surprise yourself with an open mind but considering your below comment, my monies on you having already made up your mind on a indefinite basis.

"this time! Has the hallmarks of the last JLP Tjate pump and dump years back or the GEO Georgian Mining pump which got pumped from 8p all way to 26p (even had IIs and big Private Investors taking big stakes, exactly like JLP now, to bail later), only to fall to 4p now."

[redtrend] 06/4/2019 13:28

Sleveen - I looked at the balance sheet (cash, trade balance and debt). D&A does not come into this, at all.

The fact is in 2H 2018 JLP reported earnings of £4m, but the cash + debt balance shows a £1m reduction in Interims from £4.1m to £3.2m. A difference of £5m between the two.

If you want to come up with a new "chocolate teapot" of a metric EBITDA + G&A fine, but it serves no purpose for investors and doesn't square the circle of the huge differential between unaudited reported earnings and actual balance sheet. The fact is as a producer, JLP should be providing its investors with AISC, Capex, Cash, Debt + Working Capital movements every quarter.

EBITDA already needs a lot of normalisation to make it useful for P/E, so to yet add another exclusion does not help. Plus its ignored by vast majority of posters on JLP board treating these "earnings" as free cashflow/ profit.

SLP and JLP are completely different beasts, with different risk profiles and therefore attract different investors. This is evident by how quiet SLP board usually is and how busy the JLP one is. I find it bizarre some JLP holders fascination with SLP and the need to try and ramp JLP here. As Dangers states it's not an either/or situation. SLP continues to be a pure play on PGMs, JLP now more a play on industrial metals. But some chose to compare JLP to SLP and so even if it is apples to oranges, context has to be set. After all you can always compare market cap, balance sheets, profit and risk profiles.

Lazy arguments of "confirmation bias" and condescension, I'll leave for those who note the irony.

Like Dangers I don't mind getting in to JLP at a higher price if the story was ever right and risk is lower. But for now, it's not for me, as evident from my post. Different strokes different folks.

Hopefully this time next year PGM prices will be higher, industrial metals higher for JLP, both share prices will rise and everyone will be happy. Even Deme.

I'll stop clogging up the SLP board on JLP discussions and ask any questions on JLP board - there is already 2 active JLP boards and now you're just being greedy.

[kryptonsnake] 06/4/2019 12:48

Plat Hunter is just spewing the same garbage that Colin and Leon give to their investors

He can't come up with any facts or figures to justify his silly price predictions for Jubilee

In simple terms he's an idiot

[plat hunter] 06/4/2019 12:39

Sleeven,

What about the terms of the finance for Hernic, 30% per annum compounded, until the initial build cost is recovered.

It makes hernic a very profitable deal even at the 15% which won't kick in until 2022 because of the compounded nature of interest. Anyone who understands the rule of 72 will undoubtedly see how good of a deal Hernic was.

[sleveen] 06/4/2019 12:38

"people are misled to believe JLP "earnings" is equivalent to free cashflow/ profit"

it's redtrend that conflates this nonsense.

I've posted many times on the JLP bb that earnings means gross profit after operational expenses or EBITDAG&A or operational cash flow

[plat hunter] 06/4/2019 12:37

JLP are recognised industry leaders and first movers using a process, first implemented by SLP. Cold hard reality is that the SLP board lacked the forsight and attitude to risk, to roll out the process to other other metals, tailing's dams and other pipeline projects over their current resource.

Not only have JLP taken SLP's process but they have also made them over 20% more efficient.

Regardless of what you think, SLP lacks a considerable amount of ambition over their JLP counterparts.

SLP can not physically grow in multiples of tens, where as JLP can and have been doing so for consecutive quarters over the last 2 years. The real risk to JLP is the human resource. Leon and Dr Kirby are the real assets and game changer, if they stay then JLP will succeed, if they don't then I agree it's a completely different picture.

[sleveen] 06/4/2019 12:32

How about the "huge G&A costs"; £1.1m of the £2.6m G&A costs are actually D&A (non cash) costs. £1.5m G&A costs for substantial ongoing activity is reasonable IMV.

[kryptonsnake] 06/4/2019 10:22

Redtrend,

You have summed the situation up nicely using facts

Most Jubilee investors are dreamers and they choose to ignore certain facts. It's the reason why many of them are sat on huge losses

The share price is just about break even on the 52 week chart but they are all excited by this. The marktet cap has grown but the share price hasn't

More dilution will come when the cash dries up, it's just a matter of time

[gsg] 06/4/2019 10:03

Redtrend.

Your post is one very long stream of confirmation bias. If you were to get out more you could maybe speak to experts in the tailings field. And I can assure you that you will be proven to be way off course with your comparison. Your post just confirms to me how it is possible to sit on a PC all day using online material and develop a thesis which is diametrically opposed to the truth. To me that's the lazy way of doing research.

Speak to the the people who matter in both SLV and JLP and you will get to the truth.

Nevertheless I wish you well.

[plat hunter] 06/4/2019 09:38

Proof will be in the pudding as they say, keep watching and catch you soon

[plat hunter] 05/4/2019 22:48

That's fair enough danger.. Keep your eye on them with an open mind atleast though, you never know your luck on a dark night.

In the meantime, gl and all the best. I've been an admirer of SLP for a while, decent company and ran well.

[dangersimpson2] 05/4/2019 21:16

There just seems to be a lot of hope in the JLP shareprice already, their production is only 1/3rd of SLP, cash costs are good but you are paying an EV of £55m vs £76m for SLP.

JLP has more blue-sky but they are almost all recently purchased, they may turn out well but I can't value them, so I can't invest I'm afraid.

[plat hunter] 05/4/2019 20:20

Hey dangers,

there's some outdated and incorrect views there, time for a refresher.. Give it a look when you have a few, any hows. It's an interesting read at the moment and as always your shout.