Celadon Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[littlemadam] 17/6/2008 11:33

i thought this (SWC-Sweet China) was a confectionary company??

[nirvs] 17/6/2008 07:24

SWC now off its Hedging program, so would expect it to rise from here with the rise in Pa...Still in strong downtrend I guess. Looks interesting on Weekly...Weinstein would like it I think

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 19:40

Not entirely sure why these Palladium Equities not up significantly after a Palladium move from US$417.50 to US$466.95 in September Future ie US$46.95 or 11.84% over last 8 days.

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 15:05

TATA Launch £1200 Motor Car
Posted by amandab6 on January 10, 2008



Today Tata Motors rolled out their new Nano motor car - the People's Car. The launch of the People's Car by Tata Motors is a defining moment in the history of India's automotive industry.

For the Tata Group, it is the realisation of a pioneering vision to create a breakthrough product globally that rewrites the rules of the small-car business.

The vehicle will sell for 100,000 rupees or $2,500 (£1,277) and enable those in developing countries to move to four wheels. The four-door five-seater car, which goes on sale later this year, has a 33bhp, 624cc, engine at the rear. It has no air conditioning, no electric windows and no power steering, but two deluxe models will be on offer.

Tata will initially make about 250,000 Nanos and expects eventual annual demand of one million cars. The price will be slightly more than the 100,000 once tax and other costs are taken into consideration.

Tata's small car will get cheap car insurance cover, but funding might turn out to be expensive. According to lenders, interest rates depend on the borrower's profile, and aspiring buyers of Nano are likely to be those moving up from two-wheelers and hobby customers.

The good news is that insurance for the small car could be available for as low as Rs 2,000 and could fall further if Tata assures insurers of the availability of low-cost spares.

The Nano release comes as India's domestic car market is predicted to soar in the coming years on the back of the country's fast-growing economy and increased consumer wealth. Indian car sales are predicted to more than quadruple to $145bn by 2016.

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 15:01

If you read this carefully you will realise SWC are unhedged for Platinum Now and receiving an additional US$963 per toz for every ounce of Platinum Produced Gross Profit ie US$2017 Spot less US$1054 Hedge Put.

You will realise with Palladium Skyrocketting SWC are going to make a lot of Money this Year and no one is looking at them!

Stillwater and Boulder mines are probably the highest grade Pd deposits on Earth possibly bar Norilsk Nickel itself.

New Top Management, Unhedged Platinum, what more?



Stillwater Mining Reports First Quarter 2008 Profit
BILLINGS, MT, May 08, 2008 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX News Network) -- STILLWATER MINING COMPANY (NYSE: SWC) today reported net income for the first quarter 2008 of $3.2 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, on revenue of $173.0 million. The first quarter 2008 net income compares to a loss of $1.1 million ($0.01 per fully diluted share) on $146.5 million of revenue reported for the corresponding period in 2007. The first quarter of 2008 included a $2.2 million write-off of unamortized financing costs associated with the retirement and replacement of the Company's primary credit facility during the quarter.
Stillwater Mining Company mines and processes platinum and palladium from two operating mines located in the Beartooth Mountains of south central Montana. The market price of these metals has risen substantially over the past year. Platinum's market price was $2,040 per ounce on March 31, 2008, up from $1,530 per ounce at the end of 2007 and $1,244 per ounce at March 31, 2007. Similarly, the price of palladium had reached $445 per ounce at the end of this year's first quarter, compared to $364 at the end of 2007 and $352 per ounce at the end of the first quarter 2007.(1)

Due to sales pricing arrangements, the Company's earnings do not benefit fully from changes in market prices. The automotive contracts include floor prices on palladium production and ceiling prices on a smaller portion of platinum production, tending to insulate the Company from the full effect of changes, up or down, in market prices. The Company also has in place a nearly exhausted hedge book of forward sales commitments on platinum at prices fixed well below the level of current market prices. These forward sales reduced net revenues and profits by $7.0 million (on 9,000 hedged ounces) in the first quarter of 2008 and by $7.3 million (on 26,500 hedged ounces) in the first quarter of 2007. The last remaining 6,000 ounces covered by these below-market platinum hedges (committed at an average overall price of $1,054 per ounce) will mature by the end of June 2008.

[fludde] 13/6/2008 09:01

This certainly rates as one of my worst investments ever.

If you are thinking about investing here I would suggest you think very carefully.

If the board owned a brewery they would be very hard pressed to arrange the office Christmas party.........

[le couteau tombant] 12/6/2008 15:54

Thursday, September 6, 2007
China and Palladium

This report analyses the upcoming impact on the Palladium market of China industrialisation and motorisation over the next 20 years. China is already a net importer of Palladium and Platinum as shown by the charts below based on UN trade data:






CPM estimates that 800,000 ounces of palladium were used in China in 2006, up about one-third from 600,000 ounces in 2006, CPM also forecasts a 10% increase in Chinese demand for palladium for 2007. The chart below (WTO data) shows the growth of the USD value of China Imports of Silver platinum and other metals of the platinum group from 2001 to 2005:






China being net importer of PGM is not surprising considering the China economy size and growing importance and the absence of significant PGM domestic production.

Accordingly to the USGS the only potential source of PGM inside China is the Jinchuan deposit in the Gobi desert in central China: Jinchuan mine was discovered in 1958, and it is one of the most famous large multi-metal associated nickel and copper sulphide deposits in the world. The ore bodies mainly scatter over an area of 6.5 kilometers long by 500 meters wide along the foot of Mountain Longshou. The proven ore reserves are 520 million tons, in which nickel reserves are 5.5 million tons, which are ranked the third largest deposit of its kind in the world, and copper reserves are 3.43 million tons, the second largest in China. The results of geologic exploration of recent years have shown that there exists a good prospect of new ore-bodies exploitation at deep, edge and periphery areas of Jinchuan nickel deposit. The Jinchuan deposit is also a platinum group element (PGE)-rich sulfide deposit. Drilling and surface sampling show that three categories of platinum group element (PGE) mineralization occur; type I formed at magmatic temperatures, type II occurs in hydrothermally altered zones of the intrusion, and type III in sheared dunite and lherzolite. The Jinchuan deposit is mined by Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC) that produces nickel, copper, cobalt, rare and precious metals and also some chemical products such as sulfuric acid, caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid and sodium sulfite, together with some further processed nonferrous metals products. JNMC output of nickel and platinum group metals respectively accounts for more than 88% and 90% of the total in China. Jinchuan Group Ltd is the largest producer of nickel, cobalt and platinum group metals in China, Jinchuan Group Ltd has had an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel, 120,000 tons of copper, 1,500 tons of cobalt, 2,000 kilograms (64,000 troy ounces) of platinum group metals (PGMs) and 500,000 tons of sulfuric acid.


Topographic maps courtesy of USGS.







The above topographic maps are very significant, China is rich of Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Lead, Zinc but it is very poor as far as PGE are concerned: the only Platinum Group Metal mine of China has an annual capacity of less than 100,000 ounces of PGM.

The economy of the People's Republic of China is the fourth largest in the world when measured by nominal GDP. Its economic output for 2006 was $2.68 trillion USD. Its per capita GDP in 2006 was approximately US $2,000 (US $7,600 with PPP), still low by world standards (110th of 183 nations in 2005), but rising rapidly. China is set to become the world's biggest economy by 2026 (according to a poll conducted on behalf of the BBC): China will need and consume significant quantities of PGM, its lack of PGM resources will force it to import PGM from Russia, North America and South Africa. It is the purpose of this study to estimate the impact of the Chinese demand on the Palladium and Platinum market in the next few years and its dramatic consequences on supply and demand balances.





CHINESE AUTO MARKET AND PALLADIUM

The main driver of Chinese PGM demand over the next few years will be the autocatalysts market. China is home to the fastest-growing automobile market in the world: sales of automobiles continue to rise rapidly in China. Euro II equivalent emission legislation covers all light vehicles, requiring autocatalysts to be fitted. More stringent legislation will be implemented in 2007 which will further boost demand for Platinum and Palladium. In China last year, the number of cars on the road jumped by nearly 50%. Sales of domestically produced automobiles soared by 70%. The number of cars on the road is expected to increase at least 10% per year through the rest of the decade. The number could even be bigger because the Chinese are discovering new car financing. China has also announced its intentions to impose strict emission standards prior to the 2008 Olympics: more stringent emissions standards mean more and better catalytic converters and that means more platinum and palladium. Different regulatory approaches are taken around the world to prevent traffic jams and to improve air quality. It wasn't until 2000 that China passed its first comprehensive emissions law and made catalytic converters, which clean vehicle exhaust, mandatory. China has modeled is auto-emissions standards after those in Europe. Still, most of the country still lags behind Europe, using rules implemented there back in 1996. Beijing has a stricter standard, in line with regulations set by the European Union in 2000. The entire nation is slated to move to that cleaner standard by 2008.

Johnson Matthey, a world leader in advanced materials technology and leading precious metals refiner is a very active player in the emission control catalyst sector, in which it is one of the world's leaders. In its March 2007 interim results, JM reported a 34% increase in revenue. Catalyst sales were up 11%, citing from their website: "... Environmental Catalysts and Technologies' (ECT's) sales were well ahead of last year with good growth in autocatalyst sales in Asia, increased sales of catalysed soot filters (CSFs) in Europe and the emergence of the new market for heavy duty diesel (HDD) catalysts in both Europe and North America.." Johnson Matthey results prove that platinum and palladium demand for autocatalyst from Asia is already starting to kick in. JM also noted that until recently platinum had been the only metal capable of doing the work of a diesel catalyst, although the development of diesel fuel technology has meant that palladium may now partially be substituted for platinum This development has yet to have a meaningful impact on the palladium market although it is arguable that by the end of this calendar year diesel will form a noticeable part of palladium's demand in the emission control sector.

Palladium, as noted above, will start to impinge on platinum's use in this diesel autocatalysts, even if at the moment it seems that palladium can take no more than 25% by weight of platinum's current demand in the sector, some experts expect this ratio to reach 40% thanks to technology breakthroughs and prices pushing for more Palladium substitution in coming years.

On top of that, we have rapidly increasing demand for cars in China. The upside pressure this could put on palladium demand is extraordinary, intuitively with the auto industry switching to Palladium over Platinum and China's auto industry booming, it will not take long for supplies of Palladium to shrink. The U.S. Defense Departments logistical stockpiles of Palladium are being sold and the auto industry has depleted its own stockpile. The only stockpile of Palladium existing in the world is owned by the Russian government but it is rapidly shrinking (from 20 millions troy ounces in 2000 it is believed to be around 6/8 millions today, although the exact amount are impossible to be estimated since it's a Russian State secret.

The booming China car market may have an impact on PGM prices over the next few years similar to the impact the Chinese demand had on base metals over the last 4 years: the need of base metal for the construction boom in China contributed to a 400% rise in Copper, Nickel, Zinc and Lead prices.

I will try now to quantify the potential Palladium demand for autocatalysts from China over the next 20 years. First of all, it is necessary to estimate the size of the Chinese automarket over the same time horizon. The privately owned cars sales in China have reached to 22 Million in 2006, and the country is witnessing a strong economic growth, the craze among consumers for new cars is still on. The ongoing craze of cars in China is fueled by the country's enormous economic growth. For this new emerging class of modern consumers, car is the first commodity on the purchase list. There has been a tremendous growth in the Chinese car purchase market, ever since 2000. Passenger cars today account for nearly half of the country's total production of automobiles. By 2020, there are predicted to be 140 million automobiles on China's roads, and the figure will keep increasing in the following years, by 2040 maybe a quarter of a billion (about the same number of cars as there are in the U.S. today). If China eventually attains American levels of prosperity, which it might, it could easily double that number.


In 2006, the Chinese auto market sold 7.22 Million vehicles, an increased 25% over the year 2005, and China became the 2nd largest auto industry in world, by overtaking Japan.

The chart below shows the Chinese car production per year from 1998 to 2006 (data from OICA).





In the next years, a growth of around 15% per annum is expected in the auto part segment of China. Even if China is already the world's 2nd biggest auto market, the auto penetration in China is just approximately 2% : the growth potential is huge. According to the research company AC Nielsen, China also has more people who aspire to own a car, but currently do not, than any other country. A global online survey on car ownership and purchase intentions conducted recently by ACNielsen reveals that people in Asia are the most 'aspirational' when it comes to car ownership in the next 12 months when compared with their American and European counterparts.

Car ownership - Top 10 ranked countries




China, while ranking low in current car ownership, was found to have the most car-aspiring respondents, despite potential car buyers accounting for a small portion of the population.

I have estimated the potential Chinese motor vehicle production of the next 20 years using a decreasing annual rate of growth (10% for the first years and 3% for the last years resulting in a conservative average rate of growth of 8%).



Accordingly to my estimate China will have 150 millions of cars on its roads and will be producing 28 millions of cars by 2020. The above numbers may look aggressive but they are not, they are more conservative that it seems: the Chinese automotive market is at the same stage of development of the US automotive market in 1916 and making a parallel with the USA with historic US data from 1916 to 1936 ( a period including WWI, the roaring twenties and the great depression) one may also think that the Chinese market coulf grow faster than the above estimates.

The charts below shows the USA car ownership data from 1900 to the present time:






The chart below show the future Chinese car ownership data if the same % ownership of the US market from 1916 to 1936 are used as benchmark.





The chart below compares my forecast of the annual cars production level in China for the next 20 years with a forecast of the annual cars production level in China if the same % growth rates of the US market from 1916 to 1936 are used as benchmark.





Using my estimate of the annual cars production level in China for the next 20 years , I will try to predict the potential Chinese Palladium demand for autocatalysts under the following assumptions: current load rates vs. Platinum, the typical usage rate of the current technology, emission control standards similar to European ones.





The above chart speaks for itself: Chinese are currently consuming less than 200,000 t. ounces of Palladium for autocatalysts, if my estimate is correct, they will need double their demand by 2009, later, by 2015 they will need 1,000,000 t. ounces per year and over 2,000,000 ounces of Palladium per year in 2025. The Chinese biggest Palladium producer has a production capacity of 64,000 ounces as of today and there is only one PGM deposit in China, China will need to import more than 90% of their domestic consumption of Palladium. The world Palladium market will become more and more tight considering that during the same years other developing countries like India will start their motorisation process and will create additional demand.



CHINESE JEWELLERY PALLADIUM DEMAND

To estimate the palladium jewellery demand of China I assume a 5% rate of growth from 2006 level of 760,000 troy ounces, with such rate of growth the demand for jewellery in China may reach 2,000,000 ounces in 20 years.



CONCLUSION

Accordingly to my study and estimate, it is clear that China is going to become the biggest consumer of Palladium in the world consuming almost 2 millions of ounces of Palladium in 2015 considering only autocatalysts and jewellery demand (demand for other applications such electronics, dental, chemical may well count for a 20% or 30% of additional demand of Palladium). Unless new PGM deposits are discovered and developed in China, all the Palladium will need to be imported from producers country such South Africa, Russia, and North America, for this reason I am very bullish for the long term prospects of all PGM mining companies of these countries.

It must also be remembered that the Chinese demand will make increasingly tighter and already tight market. Will the supply of PGM in the next years be able to meet the demand of the current G7 countries (already heavy users of PGM) plus the demand of the new superpower China and the demand of other developing countries like India? I think that supply will not be able to keep pace with demand and a structural deficit of PGM in few years we drive prices much higher than now. A market equilibrium will be probably found when with much higher PGM prices than now, users will eventually find substitution metals (when possible) and some market demand for PGM will disappear (such the dental demand for example), also, if new PGM deposits are discovered and economically developed the upward pressure on prices will be reduced. On the other hand, what is going to happen if new exploitable deposits are not found, existing stockpiles are depleted and new applications for PGM that today are at a research stage (such fuel cells) become commercial? In my opinion a super bull market for PGM is likely for the next 10/20 years: Platinum rally has already started, I bet on Palladium which is going to follow Platinum soon and eventually catch up.




The best way to play this super-bull over the next 10/20 years? For risk lovers PGM miners, for more conservative investors physical Palladium (coins, bars). Volatility in PGM market will increase and any deep or correction will be good buying opportunities for the next 10/20 years.

[chillichap] 13/5/2008 18:08

I see CWO saw some action today - nice rise - all good news for CYC

[lord santafe] 07/5/2008 14:53

Looks like another Substancial Wealth disaster again. Even Chancer could not pick such dogs.

[lord santafe] 25/4/2008 15:01

1,948 SW buying in - is that all he can afford now?.

[papalpower] 25/4/2008 07:39

A lot of the depression hanging over Chinese stocks is the fear that inflation is going to severely hurt corporate profits going forward. Increased costs and mounting wage pressure, along with falling exports and a reduction in consumer spending is all worries that is forcing the Chinese stock markets to collapse (the bubbles and well burst now).

Obviously this massive increase in inflation and all its worries going forward is going to depress most other China stocks too, not just the ones listed in China and suffering a collapse in their SP's.



China struggling to control rapid inflation Last month's 8.3 percent increase in consumer prices threatens to cripple the country's mostly poor population.

By Joe McDonald

Associated Press

BEIJING - China issued more gloomy inflation news yesterday, saying prices of farm goods jumped 25.5 percent in the first quarter and housing costs rose 11 percent in March despite efforts to dampen price rises that are battering ordinary Chinese.

Communist leaders, worried about a possible public backlash, are trying to ease food shortages blamed for the price spike that began in mid-2007. But winter storms disrupted that effort, and analysts expect inflation to stay high as late as May.

Retail consumer prices rose 8.3 percent in March, a slight decline from February's 8.7 percent, the highest rate in nearly 12 years. That was driven by a 21 percent rise in food costs, including a 66.7 percent increase for pork, the country's staple meat.

In its latest move, the government said it would pay subsidies to encourage egg farmers to increase output in order to avert possible shortages that could push up prices, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

The country's main planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, announced yesterday that housing prices in 70 cities rose 11 percent in March compared with the same month last year.

That was despite government efforts to discourage speculation and push developers to create more housing for low-income families.

The rise in wholesale farm prices was driven by a 62.1 percent jump in the cost of pork and 36.5 percent jump for beans over the same period last year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. The figures represent the price of goods as they leave the farm for sale to food processors or in farmers' markets.

The government has made a priority of reining in inflation, which is hitting China's poor majority hard in a society where families spend up to half their incomes on food. Demonstrations followed bouts of high inflation in the 1980s and '90s.

Beijing has imposed controls on retail prices of many food items and is trying to bring down wholesale costs by encouraging farmers to produce more pork and grain.

But rising costs to food processors and retailers is creating increased pressure to pass on the burden to consumers. Two major dairies were given permission last month to raise prices, and the government says it will consider appeals from other suppliers.

[lord santafe] 24/4/2008 20:13

substantial wealth - 20 Mar'08 - 09:24 - 568 of 593


The chart says 24p


I see the muppet tipster is also in these as well.

[william-just] 24/4/2008 20:05

Any one for a chock.

[greycioud] 24/4/2008 15:10

SWC another CYC loser??

[greycioud] 15/4/2008 16:17

SP reminds me of the Paul Simon song. "Slip Sliding Away".

[greengnu] 15/4/2008 09:12

Is there really any money in specialist sweets/chocolates. So many small providers offering their confectionaries as cottage industries and selling over the web. Is there really a market for this - and if so how can it be scaled up??

[william-just] 13/4/2008 10:20

Is ther a chance of thic co having a factory in china at £50mill

[greycioud] 13/4/2008 10:18

Problem is the CYC connection is bad for the image.

[papalpower] 12/4/2008 02:20

To be expected really initially, they have no trading history as this new company group, and so, what are the drivers to buy ?

[greycioud] 11/4/2008 16:45

Looks like it will fall then as we only appear to have sells.