Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[longshanks] 22/5/2018 19:17

Don’t know what TA afficianados would call it but the 30d moving average crosses the rising 200d moving average today.

The “Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross”?

The 50d moving average is closing in too.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[fillspectre] 22/5/2018 18:32

Anything earlier than an airframe order in Jan 2020 will be a bonus. It was originally expected Jan 2018. Described as a like an annuity in terms of regular revenues once it does arrive. Also was expected to take SCE break even (or should I say brake even). There is space allocated in the small volume cell when it does come. Fils

[longshanks] 22/5/2018 02:00

It looks like the pentagon is now very close to signing off the third multi-year contract for the V22 tilt-rotor aircraft with Bell and Boeing.https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/defence-helicopter/us-government-closes-third-v-22-multi-year/This could be related to the airframe 1 supply contract that ST has for a US military aircraft....and hence perhaps the cause for the recent strength in the share price.

[fillspectre] 21/5/2018 21:39

Longshanks regards electric vehicles needing to have an effective safety device beyond regenerative braking - your thoughts are the same as mine. Coupled with the idea of autonomous driving cars - it makes sense these vehicles having the options to stop as rapidly as possible to cope with all imagined scenarios such as someone or something coming rapidly across your path.
Another nugget I gleaned from the Bentayga lecture. I asked what it took to be a supplier to Bentley given that Bentley's reputation relies on quality throughout its Supply Chain. The answer was that new suppliers interested in supplying Bentley would always be vetted by their VW colleagues first. Hope this may help fill a little bit of the jigsaw in your mind Longshanks. Fils

[longshanks] 20/5/2018 12:51

Thanks fils for reporting back on the Bentley development; it is good to know that the ceramic option is chosen by many.As mentioned previously, the weight savings are magnified when ceramic disks are built-in as standard onto models. And it is to this end that I see developments going, initially on ultra high-end sports cars such as the AM Valkyrie, but in time to certain models of main-stream sports cars. I see that time fast approaching with the advent of dual-source supply becoming possible. Ferrari of course have already taken that path with carbon ceramic brakes supplied as standard on all models, so it is only a matter of time before others also take that route.Whilst much of braking in electric vehicles will be regenerative, to my mind there will always be a requirement to have decent sized brakes to provide an effective safety device. On all the Tesla vehicles I have seen, the brake disks (always steel) look relatively normal sized. The steel brake disks on Bentleys that I have seen are simply huge, presumably because of the heavy carrying weight. This makes me think that if the ceramic disk option provided by Brembo is their standard chopped fibre product, it must be even larger and hence extremely restrictive in terms of managing the size of wheels and other associated parts.

[fillspectre] 16/5/2018 23:01

The talk on the Bentley Bentayga was interesting. Apparently the majority of the customers tick the option for carbon ceramic brakes although a minority don't like the harshness. Bentley saved 286Kg of vehicle weight by using Aluminium for the body - but the car still weights 2,700Kg. Bentley occupy a niche market - the majority of their customers don't have to whip out their calculators when they are ticking off the options.
I did wonder if these sort of cars will come to be seen as the Last Hurrah of the combustion engine auto world. The W12 V8 petrol does 19mpg , the diesel does better at 38.5 mpg with steady driving - but the presenters did say these cars are becoming more and more politically and customer unacceptable in more and more places around the World. They do a V6 for China for instance because of their problem with urban polution. So even Bentley are starting to foray into electric cars.
One question I have - when asked one of the presenters said that due to regenerative braking electric cars need smaller discs. If this is true then the case for Carbon ceramic brakes on electric cars is weakened - although electric cars have an even greater need for weight saving.
The Diesel Bentley Bentayga can do 1000km on a single tank - the electric version on electric drive only can do 50km. Interesting times. As ever - thoughts Longshanks? Fils

[davwal] 16/5/2018 17:03

I turned blue there for 24 hours, then somebody threw a handbrake turn...

[toffeeman] 16/5/2018 16:27

Ah well - another SCE false dawn it appears

[longshanks] 15/5/2018 23:14

The rise has not been news or volume driven. It has been led by a tight market either in anticipation of some news flow or because there is some significant background buying interest.Most institutions invested at present are VC funds, but there have been a number of others interested although looking to pay a premium once the company had clear OEM contracts under its belt.

[toffeeman] 15/5/2018 23:02

Am almost at break even - I think a rise of 40% in such short order is indicative of impending news flow.

[spookies] 15/5/2018 18:44

Indeed regandharry5, very quick move up from 14p a while back. Finding the current price action very interesting.

[regandharry5] 15/5/2018 16:13

Small buying moving the price.

[longshanks] 15/5/2018 06:21

The rationale behind the view that growth in ST income will not be a zero-sum game is actually quite sound.Currently supply of carbon-ceramic disks to OEMs is a monopoly environment. Offering the market a viable second source for OEM supply should, in theory, lead to a significant increase in application of carbon-ceramic disks.The reason being is that OEM manufacturers will start designing the brakes in as standard rather than as an optional extra.Putting aside the not unreasonable arguments against this turn of events playing out - not least the matter of steel disks continuing to be much cheaper - the advantages of designing in CC brakes as standard is that the chassis design as a whole can be made a lot lighter. Lighter vehicles mean more fuel efficiency, longer battery life, faster acceleration, better road handling etc etc, and to that end is something always being sought whilst balancing delivery against the cost of construction.My personal view is that we will soon start seeing vehicles with both CC and steel disks fitted as standard on vehicles in the £40-60k range; CC disks will be fitted where the weight load needs it most - typically the front.In a market where OEMs can dual-source carbon ceramic disks, it is likely that both Brembo and ST will see increased OEM turnover. ST have an ambitious medium term target of getting a 30% share of this market. If the market increases in 5 years from £100m to £200m with ST generating revenues of £60m; Brembo will still have increased their revenues from £100m to £140m.That is not a zero-sum game.

[fillspectre] 14/5/2018 23:24

Read last week that BMW want to enter the luxury SUV market. Ok so BMW may use the competitors carbon ceramic discs but it is good news for SCE if big heavy SUVs are a growing market sector and what better proof have we than that of others joining the market. These sort of vehicles could potentially save 100Kg if carbon ceramic discs are designed in from the start. I hold onto Kevin's words - it is not a zero sum game - except it is if you never win any orders. Now is this a negative or positive post?
What possible effect could it have on the share price tomorrow. Graham1TY we are only a month from an update even if nothing comes in - in between. Fils

[graham1ty] 14/5/2018 17:16

Still small positive buying. Really could use some good news out of dear old SCE

[toffeeman] 11/5/2018 18:21

Correlation - not causation methinks

[fillspectre] 11/5/2018 18:13

Interesting every time I put up a negative post - the next trading day the share price goes up! If I put in a positive upbeat post - it is often the opposite.
A very interesting phenomenon. Fils

[longshanks] 11/5/2018 10:16

The company has one executive board director, with the other three being all non-executive.


All four attend board meetings and in that respect I am sure that RG is as much on board with business developments as Kevin D’Silva and DB.


Of the three non-execs, the only one to be awarded options in recent times is DB, and as anyone that has met him will know, this is understandable as he has taken on a far more active role than the title non-exec chairman would imply.


In the last few years, DB has successfully positioned the company for growth. As well as organising a scale-up in production he has overseen the development of a strong and engaged leadership team. To my mind this was largely completed with the recent FD appointment, although I suspect that they will in time need a dedicated sales director.


That brings me onto KJ. Yes, his pay did increase substantially last year but then again his level of responsibility has also grown significantly. If the company meets its 2020/21 objectives then, the pay increase (and others to come) will have been more than merited as we will have seen a ten fold increase in turnover. To recruit and retain a strong and engaged leadership team means you have to pay them appropriately and I don’t believe KJ is paid excessively to oversee such a team.


As to why KJ has so little skin in the game, I too find it a little uncomfortable that he opts out of buying shares. However it is his choice as to what he does with his money (and probably more his wife’s choice than his).


Yes, in many ways I would prefer a CEO who has the passion of an owner-manager, but then again KJ isn’t the founder of the business, so who are we to lay on that pressure for him to conform to our expectations.


All we can ask for as shareholders is that we have a board of directors that fully represent our interests: in DB, KDS and RG those interests are in my opinion more than adequately represented.


KJ is an executive who’s performance is overseen by our representatives. If those representatives see it fit to give the CEO a substantial pay rise, I think we should see this more as a positive than a negative.

[fillspectre] 10/5/2018 23:41

I always assumed Richard Gledhill was intimately in the know. Having met him twice I'm not so sure. I'm sure he is an intelligent business man but I rather got the impression he is first and foremost a great believer in the Carbon ceramic brake story and in particular the eventual route to a volume market for SCE as opposed to being a significant guiding hand to the SCE business. He seems patient and in for the long game. I could be wrong and it may be an unfair assessment and it is based on those two short meetings.
That said at the 2017 annual report he was the most significant shareholder behind Hargreave Hale. You would assume that he has the ear of the business and they keep him informed as much as anyone.
On another issue - I've been meaning to raise the issue of KJ's salary and share options on this board. From 2016 to 2017 KJ's total remuneration (all salary) went from £105K to £163K - a 55% rise which doesn't seem justifiable given that the all important volume OEM contract was not delivered in this period. Interestingly he has 288,000 share options at 18p a share due to expire 30th June 2018 and a further 481707 share options at 19p a share expiring 22nd September 2018. Do you think he could buy 288,000 shares right now at 18p. It does make you wonder when we will see KJ start to make use of his options and a certain part of me is wondering would we be in effect paying him to take these options having paid him an additional 58K per annum(40K per annum of which he could stuff in a SIPP).
I have to say this is one aspect of SCE that bothers me having read an article which asked whether Conviviality's directors had been paid to travel and not arrive.
So on the one hand we have Richard Gledhill, non-exec, dipping massively into his own pocket at fund raises and holding what must be the biggest personal holding in SCE. The 2017 states Richard's total remuneration as £18,782 year end. On the other hand we have KJ with 124,000 shares according to the 2017 annual report. I'm really hoping that will change soon and it will be a real confidence boost. In any case Richard Gledhill seems pretty confident reflected by his shareholding. Maybe with KJ the Company's success is still too much in the balance for him to have too many of his own eggs in that particular basket. Thoughts Longshanks? Will we see KJ moving in with the sensible investors or do you think we will get a symbolic take up of share options at a time that precedes this?

[markm1980] 10/5/2018 09:18

Not sure we've seen enough buying lately on the kind of scale - more likely he has sold other ISA shares to clear room for his SCE holding. Regardless, very interesting that he wants to tax shelter such a large amount at this point...

[longshanks] 10/5/2018 08:05

Ah yes. That would make sense. Thanks.

[rivaldo] 10/5/2018 07:44

Presumably Gledhill has cash in his ISAs either (1) from prior years' contributions which he hasn't spent yet, or (2) has sold other shares in his ISAs to make way for the SCE shares now bought in, or (3) a combination of both.

And of course he's got his and his wife's £40,000 2018/19 contributions to spend too.

[longshanks] 10/5/2018 07:42

I agree that is rather intriguing. How can you bed and ISA £230k of shares?ISA's are restricted to £20k per annum and allowances from past years cannot be carried over??Do they mean Bed and SIPP instead?