Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[graham1ty] 01/5/2018 15:39

Rivaldo, and PCF and JLH !!

Almost got the Full House !

[rivaldo] 01/5/2018 14:11

Graham1TY, it's a red letter day - when was the last time both SCE and HMLH rose on the same day? :o))

[longshanks] 01/5/2018 12:35

Certainly the downtrend has been broken based on the rudimentary technical analysis I presented last week.

Here I show the price crossing the 200d m.a. today with both the 30d and 50d m.a. trends turning positive.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Too early to say if it is sustainable: there is not much volume.

[graham1ty] 01/5/2018 10:16

I’ve not seen this tipped anywhere ? The buyers seem prepared to pay up. Hope we have broken the long downtrend

[graham1ty] 01/5/2018 09:13

It is not enormous volumes. But I am not complaining. Let us hope news starts to flow soon

[rivaldo] 01/5/2018 08:46

The buying continues. The next formal update isn't due for some 6 weeks or so. Let's hope this is the precursor to some news flow.

[longshanks] 27/4/2018 07:29

Absolutely Fils. Good spot on the Beijing auto show by the way. I have a list of when these auto shows occur somewhere but hadn't consulted it recently.

[fillspectre] 27/4/2018 07:20

Longshanks - in terms of speculation on who the anonymous OEMs are - my track record (pardon the pun) is very clean. It is others on this board who have been keen to point out they believe they know who SCE are talking to.

[longshanks] 27/4/2018 07:10

My point on the Porsche Cayman is that it is another model (to the 911 series) that is due to be launched. There are potentially other models in the Porsche stable that could also be released this year. In that respect any announcement on, say, the nomination of ST by Porsche could come literally at any time.It is though worth emphasising that we have no certainty that Porsche is a prospective customer to ST. Given the information provided, we can (and do) see some similarities between them and what we know of as OEM3, but until such time as confirmation is given it is still speculation.

[fillspectre] 27/4/2018 07:02

I started educating myself last night on auto shows. I hadn't realised the Beijing show press days were yesterday and the day before. For someone who has an investment in a brake component supplier you'd have thought I'd have cottoned onto this source of information before.
Ended up watching a news stream from the Detroit motor show - very interesting - thanks Longshanks you've opened my eyes to this.
There are even "spy" photos of the 2019 Cayman GT being track tested on the internet - anyone any good at identifying an SCE brake from a distance - LOL.
Would a product launch at the Paris auto show - be followed closely by official product nomination by the OEM? Fils

[longshanks] 27/4/2018 06:38

Nothing much to add fils other than to reassert my observation that the market is tight and the shares well bid. Volume is still trivial as you say but it looks to me like there is either a significant broker order out there or the market (Nomad and MM) have got wind of some development and are trying to position themselves better for as and when news breaks.This is all speculation on my part, but I have a reasonable nose for this kind of thing. That said though, it comes with a fair degree of confidence bias so I am a little wary all the same.

[longshanks] 26/4/2018 16:59

I have lost my appetite for technical analysis in recent years - but occasionally I return to the charts. Today the price jumped through closely converged 30d and 50d moving averages. If demand is as strong as it would appear, we could easily pass the 200d moving average (15.67p) tomorrow or early next week.

That could be a first indication that the share price is due a recovery although - with my "fundamental hat on" - I would argue this is only really likely if we see a positive news flow up to and including the June trading update.

In that case, hopefully you should soon be happily in profit Toffeeman.

My average is currently exactly 15.0p so I just need a further nudge from here to be happy, what price do you need?

[longshanks] 26/4/2018 16:15

Ok. Looks like someone is busy doing so though. And not me for a change.Price is very well bid atm, can sell significant numbers but diddly squat available at the full offer.

[toffeeman] 26/4/2018 16:07

Nah - I have enough in my portfolio - at a loss atm

[longshanks] 26/4/2018 14:29

Is that you buying?

[toffeeman] 26/4/2018 10:51

(small) Bit of buying today

[longshanks] 25/4/2018 12:55

Whilst the new 911 range is widely anticipated, there are other Porsche models scheduled to be launched too this year. The 2019 Cayman GT4 was widely expected to have been launched at the Geneva motor show in March.

[fillspectre] 24/4/2018 22:04

Longshanks - from your 911 link:-
"The new generation 911 is based on the evolved MMB platform, which will see more weight savings on the new car." Here's hoping the weight saving extends to a variant with carbon ceramic brakes specifically SCE's!
The October unveil would more fit in with my gut feel of timescales and would be very nice ahead of the November SCE AGM.
A trickle of share purchases today - will be nice if they are followed by some more this week. Fils

[longshanks] 23/4/2018 19:41

There are some interesting vehicle launches planned for this year.

The one that most attracts my attention is that of the new Porsche 911 series.

There was a teaser preview in February:

"Porsche is expected to unveil the new generation 911 at the Paris Motor Show in October this year. So expect more details to be out as we get closer to the official unveil.".

[longshanks] 19/4/2018 23:06

Nobody wants excessive share dilution but in large part companies are listed on markets in order to raise cash.When I spoke to DB it is worth mentioning that he reaffirmed his view that there is sufficient cash to see the company through to break-even. In that respect my concern is maybe misplaced. Psychologically though I am still prepared for the eventuality because we are still at least a year away from a sharp upturn in turnover.Personally I think they should raise more cash as and when they get a significant nomination (OEM 3 or OEM 5). They won't need much but I think they would be foolish to run the operations too lean.

[fillspectre] 19/4/2018 22:32

Ok so unlikely an OEM takes a stake but is there any other mechanism by which an OEM could temporarily assist SCE over working capital issues caused by their delays when to do so may benefit them in the long term? The oft stated desire for the industry to have the option of dual sourcing option would start to be weakened if Brembo took a stake.

I didn't mean to pour troubled water on a becalmed oil slick.

I still feel there aren't many AIM companies with this sort of valuation which has a compelling realistic investment case. Fils

[longshanks] 19/4/2018 07:02

The concept of an OEM making an investment has been discussed before - both on this B.B. and also at an AGMWere any OEM to take a stake in ST, it would undermine the company's relations with all others. More likely is an approach from another brake manufacturer or Brembo.

[fillspectre] 18/4/2018 21:26

Longshanks it is only right and proper that we take off our rose tinted spectacles on a frequent basis and ensure that we question management as is our right as shareholders. As I have already said I am bought into the story we have been sold.

In terms of enough cash to maintain working capital through to cash flow break-even- DB has assured investors several times he has confidence they have this. Having said this he is banking on a timetable they have penned down when talking to OEMs and the Aircraft customer. We know customer's requirements and timing appear to change quite often (the OEM3 race car disc requirement being a classic example). Assuming there is such a thing as gentlemanly conduct in the automotive industry, having been given a nod and a wink that the next expectation was the development of an OEM volume cell - one would hope perhaps a temporary shortfall in working capital may be made up by one of the OEMs taking a small stake in SCE to acknowledge the vagary of their requirements has led to the problem. Is this a wild expectation - a ridiculous notion? Such a move could still be dilutive to existing shareholders. Perhaps a different and better way may be to be paid for more development work - even the Aircraft customer may throw us this bone. There is also the possibility in my mind of Aston Martin nominating SCE brakes on a further model and for revenue from sales of retro kits to be increased. And what about all those share options - they could be taken up (still dilutive) to give some cash to the Company coffers. Fils

[longshanks] 18/4/2018 09:48

I find my own rose tinted glasses dim every so often, but I think this is still a stonking investment proposition.I take comfort on several fronts:1) it is relatively de-risked given the current share price, the scale of OEM activity and the large production footprint due to be available soon.2) they have a number of very supportive fund managers on the share register3) I am pretty sure that OEM 5 is AMG with launch supply being scheduled for their new Hypercar. News on that must be imminent for SOP to commence in 2019 as planned.4) the response to the AM-RB001 nomination was muted but with income starting to be generated, interest in the cash flow security and visibility of such deals should increase.5) OEM 3 whilst irritatingly niggly in their test requirements (no other OEM thinks the ultra-low temperature test is reasonable) stand to be an amazing long term partner that will be truly transformative for the company's growth.My concerns - and I have some - are principally around:1) when will product testing be complete for OEM3.2) do the company have enough cash to maintain working capital through to cash flow break-even.As and when concern #1 is satisfied, (and/or comfort #3) I suspect I will be satisfied on concern #2.Having a clearer route to profitability will make the shares attractive to more conservative fund managers. They may be able to pick stock up in the market but I think they will approach the company for a top-up fundraising.