Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[albert_einstein] 27/2/2018 08:09

So frustrating, just a never ending cycle of delays.

[toffeeman] 27/2/2018 08:06

1. Well I thought the price would get slaughtered but it appears that the market has already discounted this.

2. I know what you mean Pug - but it all depends upon the price you paid!

[pugugly] 27/2/2018 07:59

amt: Also IQE from 2003 to late 2015 - Not saying that a similar takeoff will happen here but those IQE holders who bought during the long drought are now drinking at the fountain of wealth with probably more to come - It could happen here if all goes well and to plan - (imo) There is grat enthusiasm in the company and they believe in the product - so apparently do the OEM's.

Interesting news today re Aston_Martin "Aston Martin roars back into the black with £87m profit" - Maybe - just maybe - a harbinger of what may happen here.

[graham1ty] 27/2/2018 07:47

Rivaldo, one of the most depressing bits ( well actually two) are
a) that OEM5 seems so inactive with “completed some testing”. I thought we were being told they were chomping at the bit to get in first ahead of OEM3 ?
b) that the outstanding test for OEM3 has made “tangible progress”. What a horrid phrase, as if it really is questionable ? The salt test has been outstanding for c18 months, so I would hope for great progress, or real progress. “Tangible̶1; makes it sound questionable !

I fear these will be heavily marked down

[amt] 27/2/2018 07:43

Usual frustrating delays. Reminds me of TRT and SRT.

[rivaldo] 27/2/2018 07:38

Indeed. The Aston Martin news is certainly the one big bright spot - this seems to be if anything progressing faster than expected, is near-term and is welcome.

As for the rest.....I am a believer, and to have got this far with such continued interest from the mighty OEMs involved means that their interest is serious and the rewards large. But progress is truly snail-like.

One thing is for certain. Once SCE do finalise production contracts with the OEMs, they'll be locked in for many years to come. No-one else would want or be able to go through this prolonged cycle of testing, re-calibrating, re-qualifying etc etc!

[graham1ty] 27/2/2018 07:23

A much closer read through and I am slightly more positive. However, the OEM3 track car is probably delayed a year; the aerospace contract is delayed a year; main OEM3engineering issue ( presumably the salt test) remains unresolved; OEM5 is Happy, but not doing much.

As the Chairman writes slow, steady progress, but no breakthroughs.......

Same old, same old from SCE. You either believe or you do not.....but I think today the disillusioned will win

[talkman2] 27/2/2018 07:22

Normal frustrating jam tomorrow statement , with predictable delays and snail-like progress .

[graham1ty] 27/2/2018 07:04

A pretty mixed bag.......not going to be taken well.

[fillspectre] 14/2/2018 20:50

Talkman - yes this Company has a long history of disappointing.
I have a long history with this Company.
When I reach back into this history and compare it with now I realise that the current narrative told by the Company has a credibility that in the past just wasn't there.
What comes first the proven ability to be able to deliver a quality volume product or a contract to do so? The former it has to be. No car manufacturer could gamble an entire car model and its reputation on supplier what ifs and maybes. The Surface Transform shareholders had to stump up the capital for the volume OEM cell that is part of the risk reward model that the auto industry expects. Alse these contracts don't come easy because as soon as they are awarded power swings from the OEM to the supplier. To get to such a stage takes time. The narrative the Company has talked for a long time is that the car industry wants a second supplier for Carbon ceramic breaks. This makes absolute sense to me - almost uncontestable - does it to you. The potential weight saving is a driver for fitment to cars - this makes sense to me - as does the fact the discs will be fitted to luxury expensive cars first. I also think there is a massive environmental driver as these discs generate less brake dust than ordinary brakes. Once the particulate nasty of diesel has been gotten out of the way comes the particulate nasties of brake dust and rubber chips and debris flicked from the road surface (the lighter a vehicle the less flicking occurs). I can name loads of AIM Companies that to me are all promises which when stacked against my own personal experience look like a lot of over optimistic hot air. FS
PS That said I am still critical of this Company. I will be reading the next trading statement very carefully. We need to know the factory fit out is progressing to plan, the OEMs are still actively talking to the Company and there have been no further delays to their plans and that the product testing is meeting expectations both in results and plans.

[fillspectre] 14/2/2018 19:47

Longshanks - you now have mail. FS

[longshanks] 14/2/2018 10:25

I guess it could be seen as a "Next year Rodders...." kind of company.Different times TM though; different ballgame.OEM3 which currently spends over £50m pa on ceramic brake disks is looking to spend over £60m in 2020.£10m of that £60m is earmarked for a new supplier to satisfy the corporate dual sourcing mandate. There is only one possible new supplier to go to.Still - until the ink is on the paper - those who hold this big picture are going to have to clench their buttocks a little bit longer.

[longshanks] 14/2/2018 10:01

I am reliably informed that the interim results will be published on Tuesday 27th February. As you say FS - not long to wait.

[longshanks] 14/2/2018 09:58

On the matter of patents, The company has three key patented processes: 1. the "knitting" of carbon fibres to give strength in the lateral "z" direction.2. the CVIST vapour infiltration process after carbonisation to pack the rotor with carbon.3. The melt infiltration process after carbon-carbon machining.

[longshanks] 14/2/2018 09:50

FS - you have mail

[talkman2] 14/2/2018 09:37

This company has a very long history of disappointing.

[fillspectre] 14/2/2018 08:48

Longshanks - I hate to rain on your parade - because I'm standing right next to you - but my understanding is that surface transforms don't have any patents - they have industrial secrets. If Brembo have been producing this CCM-R product since 2015 that means ST would have known about this during the 2016 and 2017 fund raises. The talk then was of the superiority of the ST process.
I think we just need to see what David Bundred says in the next trading statement which is very soon. I was thinking the race car contract would be later in the year so so far the lack of this materialising isn't worrying me. A bulky sudden share sale at low prices is - but it people sell for all sorts of reasons.
I'm expecting the trading statement to report mundane figures but it is the general update that will be interesting. I'm expecting it to be a case of factory on track, discussions with the OEMs on track, OEM product testing ongoing with no unforeseen hiccups. FS

[longshanks] 13/2/2018 11:42

Separately I took a look at the McLaren Senna recently. This car has been recently announced to be using a Brembo brake system including Brembo branding on the calipers.Interestingly they highlight that the braking system is "the most advanced it has ever used for the road". The carbon ceramic disks are quoted as being made with a special "CCMR compound feature" to improve thermal efficiency.That got me interested.I have taken a look and it seems that since 2015 Brembo have been marketing a premium carbon-ceramic brake disk labelled CCM-R.I found a video of a North American sales person explaining at a Nissan GT event how they are aimed at motor sport and not to be confused with the OEM supply version of the disks. The fascinating thing is that the manufacturing process takes 7 months but equally and maybe of more interest to patent lawyers, to all intents and purposes these disks look and sound exactly like those produced by ST.It would seem that Brembo are rising to the growing ST challenge. No problem with that but given the similarity of their product to STs, it makes me wonder if there is some violation of STs patent protection. Still Brembo switch in manufacturing process validates STs product and if they stick to operating on a 7 month lead time there won't be many OEM clients looking to use those disks yet.

[longshanks] 13/2/2018 10:13

I have spent some time re-reading the company's announcements over the last year.There have been delays in both the aerospace and OEM programs. Overall I have taken some heart from the general flow but I think it worth doing some critical examination.OEM 3 are a strategic partner and clearly have been working very closely with ST on making their production processes world class. We were originally expecting nomination for 2019 supply in late 2017 but were notified last June that this (nomination) was being pushed back six months for a model starting production in 2020.This blow was softened by notification that, subject to one straightforward regulatory approval process, ST would be nominated to supply a track-only race car in 2018.Assuming that OEM 3 is sincere and clear on its desire to nominate ST for 2020 supply, then they will need to do so in the very near future.My gut feel is that OEM 3 have held off final approval until they can see that the supply chain is fully secure and all elements of their desired design are in place. Last June, when the delay was announced, the company notified us that OEM 3's product design needed a new ceramic furnace and associated automation. Funds were subsequently raised and I would expect that the company is now in a position to demonstrate a clear project timeline for implementation of processes that meet the product design for 2020 supply. It is a balancing act I am sure of developing sufficient confidence in supplier by an OEM to minimise any fear that the supplier can't deliver.Whilst I have paranoid fantasies that this OEM contract is going to be perpetually delayed, I am drawn to the steady firming up of the company's manufacturing operations and competence of its personnel.The seller yesterday may well have been a VCT investor in the December 2014 placing at 13p. I am hoping that that is the case and it is simply a case of recycling capital. I suspect also though that they are also taking the line that time is running out for the company to get OEM 3 nomination for another year.White knuckle time.

[fillspectre] 13/2/2018 10:07

Longshanks - from past experience Surface Transforms does not have a habit of pulling rabbits out of hats. The only one I can think of was the Aston Martin contract which came out of the blue but which seemed to have no impact on the share price.
We are due a trading update sometime this month. It has come at the end of the month before. Let us hope like you say someone is selling for reasons that are personal.
FS

[longshanks] 13/2/2018 02:48

Possibly someone is crystallising a loss to offset CGT or possibly even taking EIS tax-free profits on shares bought in a previous placing.Either way it is disconcerting to see someone drop so many shares in one hit and at a significant discount to the summer placing price. Let's face it though: without any significant news update and a rather torrid market - the shares could well drift further. We may hear on the OEM3 race car contract soon and that may give some respite - but it is VDA6.3 and an OEM volume contract that the market is really waiting on and that could still be 6-9 months away.It would be a good time for the company to pull a bunny out of the magic hat

[goldman] 12/2/2018 11:52

Ouch, like you say PUGUGLY there could be many reasons but that's a fair chunk of shares to be selling just before the half year results are due to be announced.
Hopefully its someone desperate to get hold of some funds for some reason rather than a leak of bad news to come,fingers crossed it's not the later.

[toffeeman] 12/2/2018 11:42

Not looking too healthy - more delays?

[pugugly] 12/2/2018 11:30

Looks like heavy selling of 400K+ yesterday (but only marked today) knocking price by some 10% - Could be any reason but over £60K's worth - Hummmmmmm

[pugugly] 08/2/2018 21:18

Toffeeman - Got there using Firefox - Never used Chrome as I was advised they try to take over all your web functions - (As never used cannot comment directly but have avoided)