Supermarket Income Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 04/6/2021 02:19

It does, also thinks it can benefit from a re-rating of its retail warehouse as being more akin to urban logistics/last mile - after all many retail warehouses are a steel portal frame shed with a shop front Blackstone and countless others continue to pile in too I'm preferring European logistics at moment as there's less e-commerce penetration so hopefully more rental growth to come Amusingly remembering Land Securities thinking they'd got the better out of swapping their "dirty" sheds for SGROs retail assets

[jonwig] 03/6/2021 07:02

BLND is moving into sheds. Does it think there's still plenty of mileage there?

[williamcooper104] 02/6/2021 20:30

amazing that SGRO is now 1.2x the market cap of British Land and Land Secs added together

[chucko1] 02/6/2021 18:56

SHED and WHR moved up handsomely. Just a strong day all around. Sold a few more of the former, but added to SUPR.

[cwa1] 02/6/2021 17:05

Pretty decent volume today

[williamcooper104] 02/6/2021 15:56

Agree it's unlikely, I just like to think how anything I'm investing could blow up And while the prospect of positive real rates seems highly unlikely (for aborting other than a brief period) today so too did not so long ago zero and negative nominal rates Long term rates and inflation do have hugely fat tails

[chucko1] 02/6/2021 14:41

re: 449. I agree, but it's worth also considering the risk that interest rates rise in the long term and inflation does not.

Unlikely?

Until 1992, the average yield of the UST30yr over inflation was 300bps, so think 3% inflation and 6% long yields. Where is it now? - UST30yr at 2.28% and CPI has averaged 2% or so the past 20 years. So around one quarter of a percent.

That would be a highly destructive trend, were it recur, but at least SUPR protects you with a huge spread over Gilt linkers and, absent inflation consistently beyond 4%, would remain highly beneficial to income seeking investors.

[williamcooper104] 02/6/2021 14:01

And of course a shed lease with a CPI cap of 3 percent valued at a sub 4 percent yield is really just a gilt alternative - so it's not hard to see a 30 percent fall in value, or c40-50 percent with leverage If that happens SUPR will probably also fall, but crucially by much less

[williamcooper104] 02/6/2021 13:56

It's now my second largest position, as I've reduced my sheds and PHP positions (still have quite a bit of logistics) - but it's my largest individual equity as the largest holding is a close ended fund (holding US REITs) Even if we do not get a proper re-rating we've still got a lot more duration protection than with logistics From memory the average RPI cap here is 4 percent - which is of course really CPI plus almost 500bps New shed leases are being done with CPI and capped at 3 percent. Developers are chasing higher rents at expense of worse leases

[chucko1] 02/6/2021 13:31

I think Liberum are not only correct, but this value has existed for well over a year now.

The very long duration of the portfolio means that a lower risk premium (discount rate) will lead to a notable revaluation at some stage. That will focus minds.

It's hardly leaping higher unlike some of the sheds, but the rise is remorseless and non-volatile. So, with the recovery in a large number of REITs well established, this is my largest holding.

That said, look at the recent performance of US REITs - equivalent yields (as a spread over government bonds) leaves plenty of room for further increases for their UK cousins, even if you take into account the smaller size and less evangelical investor base.

[cwa1] 02/6/2021 11:47

Worth a quick glance...



The asset base of Supermarket Income REIT PLC (LON:SUPR), a real estate investment trust focused on supermarket property, is undervalued, said Liberum Capital.

It initiated its coverage of the company with a 134p target price and a ‘buy’ recommendation.

“We think the shares will be driven by the continued positive underlying revaluation of the supermarket asset base,” said Liberum analysts.

[williamcooper104] 25/5/2021 16:33

None taken

[thamestrader] 25/5/2021 16:04

Sorry, didn't mean to offend. Thought I was being helpful.
Apologies.

[bscuit] 25/5/2021 15:51

Credited by AJB 21.5.21

[williamcooper104] 25/5/2021 15:48

Yep - just checked the ex divi date and my trading records

[chucko1] 25/5/2021 15:47

Hmmm - that's a slightly condescending post!

[thamestrader] 25/5/2021 15:27

Surely should have paid by now, are you sure you guys held the stock on ex-div day (15 April)?

[williamcooper104] 25/5/2021 14:58

HL have paid me out but my Interactive Broker account hasn't ponied it up yet

[jong] 25/5/2021 14:40

Not paid by Halifax Sharedealing yet :-(. Always seems to be late !

[brexitplus] 20/5/2021 17:15

Dividend paid tomorrow.

[brexitplus] 14/5/2021 12:09

Happily very steady during this volatility and the dividend paid next week.

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/4/2021 12:45

Would seem you are right Williamcooper104, price moving much more freely now. About to tick up again - looks like only 7500 left below 14p, any larger than that 14.5p

Plenty to go would still be a 4% inflation-linked yield at 146p

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2021 13:16

Yep - that would be the yield movements in last few months One of the big selling pressures has eased - M&G are done selling and I think LGEN are too O is stepping up its European/U.K. activity - its recruiting a full U.K. based team at moment

[chucko1] 22/4/2021 13:00

You are referring to yield contraction over the past few months? If so, do you feel your evidence is strong to support the idea that the selling has passed?

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2021 12:50

Would have thought 30-40bps The open ended funds seem to have done their selling