Superdry Investors - SDRY

Superdry Investors - SDRY

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Superdry Plc SDRY London Ordinary Share GB00B60BD277 ORD 5P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
-39.00 -8.26% 433.00 16:35:06
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
472.00 425.00 481.00 433.00 472.00
more quote information »
Industry Sector
PERSONAL GOODS

Top Investor Posts

DateSubject
06/5/2021
17:03
manouk2: stockopedia comment: 326p (up 18% today, at 10:16) - mkt cap £267m Superdry announces a trading update covering the 52-week period from 26 April 2020 to 24 April 2021 ("FY21"). Returned to revenue growth in Q4. However, remember that the Q4 last year comparative was hit hard by lockdown 1, from 23 March 2020 closure of all non-essential shops. Hence beating that comparative is not quite as good as it sounds - although physical shops were closed for almost all of Q4 in 2021. Comparisons are difficult. Maybe it would have been better to use comparatives from 2 years ago, as Next has done? Online sales are growing nicely - this is a key thing I look for, as retailers have to be able to demonstrate a successful shift to selling online, to be investable, in my opinion. In FY 04/2021, SDRY sold £203m online, up 34% on last year, and that’s 36% of the total sales - starting to look interesting! Gross margin - SDRY is trying to sell at full price, instead of discounting. It says this was successful in Q4 - … our commitment to a full price stance over the period has seen significant online margin improvement. That’s encouraging, but remember that retailers don’t price discount product because they want to, they drop prices because they have to, to shift slow-selling lines. Therefore, we need to see strong sales, combined with strong margins. Otherwise, everything not sold is just dumped into the end of season sale at half price, in July. Therefore, sticking to full price at this stage could just be deferring the gross margin problem. Time will tell on that. I tend to find that SDRY announcements are full of upbeat comments, and aspirations, but with not much concrete evidence that the business has actually turned around. Remember it was struggling, and trading around breakeven, before the pandemic struck, so it’s got a mountain to climb to get anywhere near being a profitable business again. Liquidity - good, but what about all the deferred creditors, such as VAT, etc? It's curiously silent on that important point. Our liquidity remains strong, with closing net cash ahead of last year and our facilities remain undrawn. Re-opening - going well, but no figures provided - The early signs following the reopening of our UK stores are encouraging, as lockdown restrictions start to lift, and we can clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel. In short, we are on track with our reset of the brand and there's a lot to look forward to." Rents/leases - this is the biggest issue - it’s locked into a load of flagship, big rent stores. Some have been renegotiated, and big reductions in rents, but what about all the others? Renegotiated a further 48 leases (~1/5 of the estate) in FY21 achieving a weighted average saving of 52% (65 lease negotiations have now been completed in total), in addition to substantial one-off Covid-related rent waivers. We’ll have to wait until the actual results come through, to properly assess the situation. For all my criticisms of it, IFRS 16 does have some use when looking at struggling retailers, to see the extent of the leasehold commitments. Its big failing though, is that IFRS 16 doesn’t distinguish between lease commitments on profitable and loss-making shops, which is what actually matters! A lease is only a problem if you’re trading at a loss from that site. If it’s trading profitably, then the future lease liabilities don’t matter. Wholesale - this is better than I was expecting - Positive signs are being seen across Wholesale, with in-season orders up 142% and SS21 forward orders up 10% in Q4 year-on-year, both driving an overall increase in Q4 21 which is up 13.5% year-on-year. Cash collection has tracked ahead of expectations, making a significant contribution to year-end net cash. Wholesale FY21 revenue was down (19.9)% year-on-year, with our partners suffering the same headwinds in physical trading locations and carrying forward higher levels of stock than normal. Outlook - no figures given, so investors are in the dark about the current level of trading losses. SDRY left wildly inaccurate forecasts in the market for a long time. I reckon it’s heavily loss-making at the moment, because it didn’t make any money before the pandemic - There remains significant uncertainty given the varying impacts of the pandemic in our markets particularly to the trajectory and phasing of the consumer recovery. However, we are confident of growth in FY22 revenue and profitability compared to FY21 assuming no further material national store lockdowns and a continuing recovery in footfall and consumer demand through the period. Profitability will be supported by higher gross margins from our restored full price discipline and positive operating leverage from reduced store costs, partially offset by the end of government support and our ongoing brand marketing investment. My opinion - mixed. First the positives - I’m impressed with the growth online, and wholesale has fared better than I expected. Liquidity is OK for now, but we’re not told what all the backed-up creditors are, which is crucial information omitted from this update. Negatives - SDRY was struggling before the pandemic, with its highly profitable glory days well behind it. Big-rented flagship stores remain a millstone, although some progress is being made on renegotiations. Again, we’re only told the positives, not the full picture. SDRY updates do read as mainly PR material, not giving any indication of overall profitability, or the true underlying liabilities. They can’t hide these points when the full year numbers come out, so there's a good case for investors banking the profits before the numbers are published, as I reckon they’ll probably not look very nice. Checking the last (interims) balance sheet again, it looks to me as if there’s too much in inventories, and maybe some provisions for bad debts might be needed against the large receivables book? Lease liabilities are horrendous, at nearly £300m, with only £111m in right of use assets, showing the key importance of getting out of those leases, wherever possible. That could takes years, and be very expensive, and is likely to be a dead-weight on this company for years to come. Overall, I think the company is right to say that there’s light at the end of the tunnel. My assessment is that it looks unlikely to go bust, and has managed so far without having to dilute shareholders at all. That could come later though, as once everything’s back to normal, and creditors have to be paid, new stock bought, etc, then the cash pile and borrowing facilities are going to be needed. It’s been a good trade so far, on survival & hopes for re-opening, but I think there’s still a lot to be proven about the long-term fundamentals, which remain weak, in my opinion. Let’s see what the actual numbers look like when they’re published. Today’s PR release is really just edited highlights, carefully avoiding mentioning anything about liabilities, or losses. Compare this with the Q1 update from Next (LON:NXT) today - it’s like chalk & cheese. Still, in a bull market, when everything's going up, do fundamentals matter? Not at the moment they don't! That comes later. .
03/3/2021
15:26
1bonanza: Superdry slid to a £18.9 million pre-tax loss for the half-year to October 24, as the pandemic put its turnaround strategy on hold.It told investors that risks associated with current uncertainty and the recovery in consumer demand "represent material uncertainty and may cast significant doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern".
19/1/2021
13:21
gswredland: Yep and investors said it all this morning
08/1/2021
13:01
leedslad001: I am sure the traders will sell them some. Not me I am an investor for the big money
21/12/2020
13:38
euromedic: Another hindsight investor yawn
02/12/2020
10:07
tournesol: ABarclay You are propagating fake news and a distorted interpretation of the actual facts. Your unsourced quote comes from an article/interview reported 5th Nov. You have been hyper-selective in your extract. Headline of the article was Covid restrictions hit Superdry store sales Superdry has reported a 23.3% fall in total revenue in the 26 weeks to 24 October 2020, "reflecting the challenging trading environment". That's not quite as positive as the bit you quoted. Nor is the first part of the article which says as follows:- Revenue fell by 22.8% year on year in the 13 weeks to 24 October, "as a result of continued disruption from Covid-19", but was "partially offset by the strong ecommerce performance". Store revenues in the half-year were down by 44.8%, wholesale fell by 28.8%, while ecommerce rose by 49.8%. Superdry said store footfall continued to be suppressed by Covid-related measures, particularly in large city centre locations. Like-for-like store trading in the six weeks to 24 October was down by 32.4%. UK trade was by continued social-distancing measures, which was partially offset by stronger performance in Europe, where footfall declines have been less severe. As of 5 November, Superdry has temporarily closed 122 stores across England, Wales, France, Belgium and Ireland, although 117 stores were still open and trading. Even Dunkerton's comments were much more cautious and nuanced than you have claimed. Julian Dunkerton, CEO, said: “Covid-19 continues to disrupt our store and wholesale channels, but this is being partially mitigated by strong sales through our ecommerce operations. This has been an important period for Superdry, with the launch of our full autumn/winter 20 ranges and a true focus on using our social channels to reach our customers, and bring our brand reset to life. "This activity is delivering record levels of engagement through our influencer-led autumn campaigns, and we will focus our energies in this area over the coming months led by our new chief marketing officer, Justin Lodge. "The external outlook is very uncertain. However, we have financial flexibility and are making good progress with our strategy and brand reset. We are determined to do the right thing by all our stakeholders – including colleagues, our retail and wholesale customers and investors – to ensure the business and brand returns to success.” Source of interview:- hTTps://www.drapersonline.com/news/river-island-warn-of-lockdown-disruption-2 Listen, I'm long on SDRY. It's my biggest holding and I'm delighted that it is being re-rated. But let's be honest about the stuff we post here. Let's not exaggerate. Let's not misrepresent.
06/10/2020
10:06
lucicavi: A woman walks past a Superdry fashion store in Berlin, Germany Reasonably priced casual wear puts Superdry in the right place for the pandemic “These guys destroyed a quarter of a billion pounds of value for me and I’m determined to build it back up.â€� This is what, according to one fund manager, the founder of Superdry is in effect saying about his attempt to restore the firm’s fortunes after his predecessors made, again in the fund managerâ€͐2;s words, a “dog’s breakfast of itâ€�. Liad Meidar of Gatemore Capital Management, whose Special Opportunities fund has a stake in the fashion brand, said Julian Dunkerton, its founder, had seen the value of his Superdry shares fall by about £250m when its market value plummeted from £1.3bn to £90m under the previous management. This obviously gives Mr Dunkerton plenty of motivation to succeed – and it shows. “He fought to get back control of the company in April last year. There was lot of drama,â€ᦙ3; said Mr Meidar. “We think he is doing a lot of the right things to get the business back on track. “Heâ364;™s just as energetic and committed as before. He is a really incredible entrepreneur. He is renegotiating store leases, so fixed costs are falling significantly, and he is revamping the product line, breathing new life into it. And I think he’ll be around for a while.â€ᦙ3; He added that there was “nothing wrong with the businessâ€A533; now. “Going into the pandemic there were a lot of factors that put it in a unique position,â€5533; Mr Meidar added. “One was it had net cash, a position that it managed to maintain into lockdown. It had had too much inventory but stopped purchasing and managed to clear it, while the warehouses for online shopping were kept running.â€A533; He said Superdryâ€T82;s “reasonably priced casual wearâ€� put it “in the right placeâ€�; as far as the pandemic was concerned. “This brand can do really well in this environment,â€� he added. “It was already in turnaround mode going into Covid – it was on the front foot. “Now it is able to go further and get its cost structure right. For example, some shops could be closed but the firm could also open some new ones. Some landlords are offering variable-cost deals that in effect mean there is no risk for the tenant.â€ʏ33; He said Superdry charged “premium pricesâ€ᦙ3; but still offered good value for money. “You feel that you are getting a good deal, a good balance of quality and price.â€ᦙ3; The result is gross margins of about 64pc. Returns on capital tend to be in double digits, although they are depressed this year. “They could go into the high teens,â€ᦙ3; Mr Meidar said. He said profit numbers were currently “all muddledâ€ʏ33; because of changes to accounting standards but the less volatile and arguably more important free cash flow figure should be more than £60m by 2022. “A business with a market value of £110m is on course to produce £60m in cash in one year,â€�; he said. “That reflects the bombed-out share price, which has arisen partly because some investors ‘short sold’ retailers. “This is the type of opportunity we want. There are very few risk-reward stories like this out there.â€ᦙ3; Questor
25/9/2020
14:52
davidosh: Superdry is one of the companies put forward for discussion at our MelloBASH session this coming Monday The analysts, fund manager and well known investors on the panel will give their honest verdicts on whether at least four companies are a Buy Avoid Sell or Hold at this current juncture in the markets. https://melloevents.com All investors welcome and if you use the code MMV5 you will get a half price ticket. Great investor content and entertainment for less than a fiver
22/9/2020
07:07
davethehorse: Liberum: Superdry's shrinking market cap is wrongInvestors should buy into the weakness in Superdry (SDRY) shares as fashion brand takes steps to put itself back on an even keel, says Liberum.Analyst Wayne Brown retained his 'buy' recommendation and target price of 300p on the shares, which slumped 12.6% to 132.7p yesterday after reporting a doubling of losses to £167m for the year.Brown said results were 'as good as could be expected' considering the Covid-19 lockdown closed all its stores and the outlook was 'improving' as wholesale orders came in and stores recovered.'Cost savings are on track and there is a clear focus to reduce inventories further which is a clear positive,' he said.'The current market cap of £125m is now smaller than the value of the inventory on the balance sheet. This has to be wrong considering momentum and the proven track record of this management to convert this into cash.'https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/the-expert-view-st-james-s-place-superdry-and-informa/a1403451
09/9/2020
15:55
john09: Questor: Superdry is worth £110m and should make £60m in cash in two years’ time. Buy Questor share tip: there are, in the words of one investor, ‘very few risk-reward stories like this out there’ By Richard Evans 9 September 2020 • 5:00am A woman walks past a Superdry fashion store in Berlin, Germany Reasonably priced casual wear puts Superdry in the right place for the pandemic “These guys destroyed a quarter of a billion pounds of value for me and I’m determined to build it back up.” This is what, according to one fund manager, the founder of Superdry is in effect saying about his attempt to restore the firm’s fortunes after his predecessors made, again in the fund manager’s words, a “dog’s breakfast of it”. Liad Meidar of Gatemore Capital Management, whose Special Opportunities fund has a stake in the fashion brand, said Julian Dunkerton, its founder, had seen the value of his Superdry shares fall by about £250m when its market value plummeted from £1.3bn to £90m under the previous management. This obviously gives Mr Dunkerton plenty of motivation to succeed – and it shows. “He fought to get back control of the company in April last year. There was lot of drama,” said Mr Meidar. “We think he is doing a lot of the right things to get the business back on track. “He’s just as energetic and committed as before. He is a really incredible entrepreneur. He is renegotiating store leases, so fixed costs are falling significantly, and he is revamping the product line, breathing new life into it. And I think he’ll be around for a while.” He added that there was “nothing wrong with the business” now. “Going into the pandemic there were a lot of factors that put it in a unique position,” Mr Meidar added. “One was it had net cash, a position that it managed to maintain into lockdown. It had had too much inventory but stopped purchasing and managed to clear it, while the warehouses for online shopping were kept running.” He said Superdry’s “reasonably priced casual wear” put it “in the right place” as far as the pandemic was concerned. “This brand can do really well in this environment,” he added. “It was already in turnaround mode going into Covid – it was on the front foot. “Now it is able to go further and get its cost structure right. For example, some shops could be closed but the firm could also open some new ones. Some landlords are offering variable-cost deals that in effect mean there is no risk for the tenant.” He said Superdry charged “premium prices” but still offered good value for money. “You feel that you are getting a good deal, a good balance of quality and price.” The result is gross margins of about 64pc. Returns on capital tend to be in double digits, although they are depressed this year. “They could go into the high teens,” Mr Meidar said. He said profit numbers were currently “all muddled” because of changes to accounting standards but the less volatile and arguably more important free cash flow figure should be more than £60m by 2022. “A business with a market value of £110m is on course to produce £60m in cash in one year,” he said. “That reflects the bombed-out share price, which has arisen partly because some investors ‘short sold’ retailers. “This is the type of opportunity we want. There are very few risk-reward stories like this out there.” Questor says: buy Ticker: SDRY Share price at close: 134.6p
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