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SUMM Summit Therapeutics Plc

20.50
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Summit Therapeutics Plc LSE:SUMM London Ordinary Share GB00BN40HZ01 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 20.50 18.00 23.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Summit Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

Showing 38176 to 38200 of 41850 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
20/2/2017
15:54
Presidents' Day today in US, so no Nasdaq to follow today.
luminoso
19/2/2017
19:13
My favourite two stocks are spectra and nuog for 2017Spsy tgt 70pNuog 3pThese stocks have all the attributes to motor over the weeks and months ahead
patviera
16/2/2017
16:13
Sarepta dropping below their pre FDA approval share price again.
hugus maximus
15/2/2017
20:20
A high and probably very fair offer is what it will be. "People were saying that five years ago" because they believed wrongly that trials would be further advanced than they are now. The picture is a lot clearer now. Summit is ripening fast.
luminoso
15/2/2017
14:14
freemoney1,I tend to agree, for me RDZ underpins a future valuation and EZD is the prospective bountiful jam-on-the cake. However I was not surprised that the recent Seeking Alpha article took a very different view with U.S. Investors (Predominantly DMD community) being totally focussed on EZD-based progress and valuation. It seems to me that if EZD takes a tumble it could be quite some while before RDZ brings home the smaller pack of bacon; it seems C.Diff just doesn't have a following and attention has waned on next-generation antibiotics?Cheers, tightfist
tightfist
15/2/2017
14:11
People were saying that 5 years ago :-)
The majority of shares are strongly held by well informed investors. It would need to be a very high and fair deal to budge them. GLA

freemoney1
15/2/2017
13:09
I doubt that Summit will exist in 3-4 years time.
luminoso
15/2/2017
12:14
Hi Solomon, I guess it all about doing your own research and building your own confidence.... all the top investors say the same thing....read, read and read. The more you understand the better you'll make informed choices.

For me it comes down to how confident we are in the company delivering value from C.Diff, we know RDZ works but can they commercialise it?
I'm staying positive and as said previously I see RDZ underpinning the value here now.
DMD is more of a gamble but as they call themselves a DMD company I'm sure they'll make a success of it at some stage with either F3 or F6. Not long now to Q2/Q3 for the initial read!!!! GLA

freemoney1
15/2/2017
11:22
Yes, moving shares to ISA would sound like a good idea (and the ISA limit rises to 20K this April). The problem I have is that my history of non-divi-paying shares in ISA's is abysmal. I know SUMM is different, but that's what I said about all the other shares I had dreams of making huge capital gains without the CGT overhead. So, apart from the cost of Bed & ISA (which raises my base cost) I have to overcome the voice in my head that says "you lost when you did it before with tiny Mkt Cap shares and you were not able to offset the loss because of the tax shelter"
solomon
15/2/2017
10:49
Hi H-M, Great work form you and Waterloo.
As Waterloo points out any deal will give upfronts and milestones which will more than offset any further development and set-up costs.
So to simplify calculation I just use the predicted peak sales and assume a 20% royalty.
The Crystal Ball Calculator puts out values between £11-£16 per share ...depending which way the wind is blowing :-)

So my point is with the share price below £2 it would seem a no brainer to invest at this level knowing the share is underpinned by that value in 3-4 years time and the 'free' gamble of the multi billion $ DMD programme hitting success... which could be worth £100's per share IMHO without further dilution.

It's all looking very exciting... it'd be nice to see the FDX results and a deal soon to boost the share price to where it should be.... but then again if it stays low we can move more shares to ISA in April... win win :-) GLA

freemoney1
15/2/2017
10:03
Hi All I have bought shares mid price before & they were shown in Black neither a Sell or a Buy.Is it possible that the large transaction yesterday was a Buy which might explain waterloo01's point.The actual shares based on the figures shown under Share Information comparing 7th Feb. 17 & the SEC number is 248,245.
chrisatrdg
15/2/2017
09:41
Point 72 sold 275k shares (now own 7.6%). Surely they traded ADS's so not sure why sale appears on AIM?
waterloo01
15/2/2017
08:00
someone moving 275k of share around yesterday with that late trade today
football
14/2/2017
21:27
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Presents at 19th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference

The following slide deck was published by Summit Therapeutics in conjunction with this event.

chrisatrdg
14/2/2017
18:45
Come on FreeMoney ... it's time for you to play crystal ball with a calculator ... wad ya think about all this then?
hugus maximus
14/2/2017
18:42
OK ... I'll get my coat ... meanwhile the NASDAQ's looking a little more windswept and interesting in reaction to buying and selling than our boring old AIM thing. At least the americans see a little more immediate thrill with their upward and downward spikes.

These boring flatlines on AIM result in us having to invent all sorts of creative things to make life a little more interesting!

hugus maximus
14/2/2017
18:34
Not much until we see what deal is on offer?
waterloo01
14/2/2017
18:27
Golly gosh sir! I'll stick to my day job if after your more worthy workings out in the margin ... go on ... if you were a betting man, what effect do you think a scenario like the above might have on the share price over the coming months?
hugus maximus
14/2/2017
17:23
Hugus, can tell you're no accountant. lol.

Two routes have been highlighted, the third, equity being off the table for now.

Cost of running the trials somewhere North of $50m ($75m for argument sake), and let's also accept your $500m market potential rather than the $950m from WH Waintwright.

So for a partner, for $75m and any upfront payment (say $25m) they get 80% of turnover, leaving us with a 20% royalty. ( EDIT: I've not added in any milestones due but could easily add $100m+ to the cost - to our advantage). Approval should be 2021? Let's say it builds in a straight line, so $50m/£150m/$300m/$500m by 2025.

So over the first 4 years of being on the market, the pharma will have pocketed $1bn AND it still has the best years ahead at full market potential and an extended patient life, over 10 years it could bring in $4bn. All for a cost of $100m and minimal risk.

Profit for SUMM over same period $825m.

Well that's the story I'd be weaving.

If we get grant funding, I'd expect no upfront, but that we'd retain a much higher % (maybe 50% or higher?)

waterloo01
14/2/2017
17:13
What would change any short term share price calculation greatly would of course be a little Trumping of the pharmaceutical industry, with a drug like SMT19699 being given very much speedier access to a very needy market after such positive proof of concept P2 success.
hugus maximus
14/2/2017
17:05
I am no accountant but would expect a more modest $500 million per year C Diff market (that figure clearly dependent on whatever the drug's market price is) ... my stab at expectations over the next few months for C Diff:-

As a consequence of a 3rd party major Pharma involvement with C Diff, might Summit realistically be looking for a downpayment of say $75 - 100 million and up to a 30% royalty?

Therefore the initial C Diff drug effect on share price stabilising at around £3 ... until further income is eventually generated by sales which would then enhance the share price greatly?

(The above having no bearing whatsoever on DMD share price enhancement which is obviously the big prize)

hugus maximus
14/2/2017
16:48
Chris, do a discounted cash flow forecast. If they have 20% of $1bn peak sales, building over 2-3 years. Not that difficult?
waterloo01
14/2/2017
16:38
Hi freemoney1 - Worked in Biotech but cash flow,interim results,VAT,involvement in company disposals, seeking reduction in cash burn through negotiations etc not company valuations.

As mentioned on the other board today would be nice to be in the £1 club i.e. now £20 value but excluding DMD not sure.

chrisatrdg
14/2/2017
09:50
Hi Chris, didn't you work as an accountant in the field... I'd be interested to know what you calculate?
freemoney1
14/2/2017
08:39
Per Free-Money from the other board this morning - any takers?

'Ridinilazole value per share ?

This would seem to be a fundamental question for new investors now or LTH looking to top up at this price.
We've recently been told the European and US agency are supportive of Summit Phase 3 programme and Ridnilazoles route to market. Knowing RDZ can be used as first and second line treatment and the market is worth about $1bln in annual sales we should be able to give the drug a share price value for 2021.

If you can calculate that value and buy below that price then the gamble on the DMD programme is a free gamble as far as I see it.

So what is the value of RDZ with Summit's roughly 62milion shares and assume it will be partnered giving Summit 20% royalties per year ? Lets assume for this exercise that since P3 is just a replica of the very successful P2 trial, only bigger, then we do not need to account for risk of success in my opinion. It’s just a matter of time to market now.

I've worked out what I think but I'd be interested to see what others come up with and how you arrive at that value?

Something to do while we wait and could be very interesting for those looking to invest.... in a 'free ride for shareholders' - Glyn AGM comment :-)'

chrisatrdg
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