Stratex Share Discussion Threads

[romeike] 15/6/2017 08:14

Looks to be all go with the merger.

[juju44] 14/6/2017 12:24

Maybe the gold price will save this dog from extinction . it certainly wont be the management

[5huu] 13/6/2017 23:10

Good find Tad.

[tadtech] 13/6/2017 17:32

Post from a Crusader shareholder...........



This post of mine isn't meant to give you an answer but more my personal hunches from a CAS shareholder's point of view. I'll firstly give to a quick over view on why Crusader needs a financial partner and then why I believe Stratex wants to partner Crusader.

1st ~ Crusader has two world class deposits but no money for capex.

2nd ~Crusader was/ is being day/range traded to oblivion.

Okay, back when Iron Ore was worth a lot more than what it is today Crusader (CAS) was using the profits from it's Posse IO deposit to fund exploration, a scoping study and a feasibility study for it's Borborema gold project. Why Borborema was eventually put on the back burner after the feasibility study was unclear, you'd have to say it was because of Bororema's marginal profits (at that time) when compared to the risks investors were taking meant that CAS couldn't quite get the project over the line at that time. The World Bank wanted to fund Bororema to give the local districts employment opportunities. What is actually truth and fiction regarding Borborema is sometimes hard to say. The reality is however, CAS's aim was to develop a Gold deposit through to production, if Bororema wasn't viable, CAS was on the look out for a Gold deposit that it could develop quickly -- step forward Juruena.

This was when things started to go bad for CAS. Firstly, it coincided with the dramatic fall in the IO price -- There goes the profits from Posse to develop Juruena. Secondly, the development of Juruena has been going at a snail's pace. This has mainly been for two reasons. CAS management have under-estimated how long things take in Brazil, and secondly, the lack of funds has meant things have been done consecutively. What I mean is, any savvy operator will conduct development of any project on a concurrent basis. CAS just didn't have the funds to do that so have had to things one by one to try and extend the periods between capital raisings. As another poster said in a previous post however, the the last couple of years as been a slow death by a thousand cuts for CAS. The share price which was over 40 cents around the time when Posse was still paying for things is now stuck between 10 to 12 cents.

The irony however, since CAS brought Juruena, the Brazilian Real has slowly collapsed. That fact as well as a reworking of Borborema's BFS where the focus is now on hitting the high-grade deposits first has meant that Borborema is now very profitable. Too late but, CAS brought Juruena to develop. So it finds it has two profitable deposits but no money.

Okay okay, why is Stratex so excited? Simple, the numbers! Let's look at Juruena first. Capex should be low with management's aim to contract most things out. First year of production before ramp up is said to be 40,000 ounces. My own personal opinion on margins per ounces going by grade, type of deposit and local costs (A truck operator is one/tenth the cost in Brazil compared to Australia) is $500 an ounce. And a think it will be shown that that figure turns out to be conservative.

That equals AUD$20M in the first year of production, but more importantly, both managements think that Juruena can be brought into production rapidly with a injection of funds. That's the catalyst on why they believe Borborema will be successful. Juruena will be a short project at this stage. without further drilling, there's enough reserves to produce around AUD$110M in profits over five years at current prices considering ramp up as well. Borborema is a much much longer project and is the companies main aim. A high ounce producing Gold mine that can sustain a long term operation. Mineralization is still open at Borborema.

What is CAS's goal? Become a long term Gold producer where eventually profits go back to shareholders in the form of a dividend -- Isn't that what they all want? I'm guessing Stratex's management want the same for their shareholders. Why is CAS going to London? Because the share price won't go up in Australia. The combined entity will have a much much better chance of obtaining the funds needed from savvy London investors with a long term view. Australian investors only have a short term view ... generally!

[charles clore] 13/6/2017 17:18

Blobby - bring back Bob?

[blobby] 13/6/2017 17:04

Tad,

Good find. This bit I agree with:

"Crusader winds up with a little over 80% of the newly formed company, so it's nore really dilutive. At 11c / share, we're capped at around $33 million, so $12 million as a percentage of $33 million, that's close to 30% dilution. I think it's a really remarkable deal for Crusader shareholders."

Also it seems that Marcus Englebrecht will be given a good job in Crusader after the takeover.

Dual listing planned.

This sort of information should be being given to poor Stratex shareholders and not some journalist in Australia.

[juju44] 13/6/2017 12:29

need something to get cheery about here

[steve1905] 13/6/2017 10:39

Juju, me and you should get together to have a cheery chat. No grooming intended

[juju44] 13/6/2017 10:36

MMs just opened the spread . It is now ridiculous. When are we going to hear the DD outcome , maybe that will be exciting

[steve1905] 13/6/2017 10:33

All's well, someone has bought some.

[romeike] 13/6/2017 09:21

Juju- thanks for all your various recent fact-based panic posts. I think the only response can be "calm down dear".

[juju44] 13/6/2017 09:16

Yep , nice chart so must be no problems

[shortarm] 13/6/2017 08:53

£172 sold!???Juju, paaaannnnniiiiiiiiic - run for the hills!! Sell sell sell...Give us our money back...Boo hoo, it's so not fair :-(

[juju44] 13/6/2017 08:50

Punters jumping ship again. maybe she is sinking altogether. If they dont return the cash to shareholders now there will be little left before long with all their fat salaries and failure bonuses .
I did warn that Englebrecht did little for Archipelago holders and was talked up here well beyond his talents

[youngharry2] 12/6/2017 10:25

Marcus was supposed to be the big corporate super hero, turns out he's as good at destroying shareholder value as the last lot.

Time to liquidate and return cash to shareholders.

[georgesorrow] 09/6/2017 17:49

CC I'm talking about the short term pre- and post-deal. As I've said before I actually like the CAS assets, but its very difficult to predict what will happen during the messy transition.

[juju44] 09/6/2017 17:30

Some big dumping going on

[charles clore] 09/6/2017 16:20

George - the illiquid ASX I can understand would be a good reason to use Stratex's AIM listing, if only to appease any institutions wishing to buy into the de-arranged company.

[steve1905] 09/6/2017 16:15

I said it before, never underestimate Stratex's ability to disappoint. When you think it can't get worse they always prove you wrong

[georgesorrow] 09/6/2017 15:31

CC I've been wondering why volumes on ASX are so low when there is major coporate action unfolding. On the Hot Copper forum in Oz there is clearly no idea whether STI will be dual or single listed. Oz buyers who are not interested in setting up an overseas trading account will not be buying CAS if they think they will have to bail out in the near and very uncertain term to get their money back. And obviously a rock bottom CAS share price doesn't look good from STI shareholders perspective as it looks like we're being shafted.

On the other hand, if the decision has already been taken to go for a single AIM listing, perhaps STI and CAS chose not to announce it for fear setting off a stampede of CAS holders for the exits. So dammed if they do and dammed if they don't I suppose.

I can't really imagine that STI will want to dual list, but I suppose an interim dual listing if possible might be a way of appeasing CAS holders.

[juju44] 09/6/2017 14:38

Now wouldn't that be a surprise if STI feked something up

[georgesorrow] 09/6/2017 11:03

I think Marcus and CAS have blundered by not explaining what the listing situation will be if the deal goes ahead. Holders of CAS don't know if there will be a dual listing or just an AIM listing. This will keep the CAS price depressed. Holders and potential buyers alike face the prospect of having to bail out if there is a single AIM listing and they do not wish to open overseas trading accounts.

A depressed CAS share price in turn makes it look to STI holders that they are paying far too much.

Presumably all will be made clear before shareholder votes, but for the time being the lack of clarity is damaging both parties.