Stm Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 24/1/2017 08:33

HW.

a new wealth mngmt co. that listed in 2016

annual results just out..today...shares up 7%

generates similar profits-cash imo to STM but has a cap. value at about double that of STM !!


slightly different business...but same sector
...so phps despite the recent rise STM is still looking good value

interesting to see what happens today....after the rise yesterday and some big buys yesterday at above mkt price ,,,incl at 60p !

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and some rise to come imo since quoted buy/sell is skewd below real prices traded yesterday....of 55p to sell and 57p to buy

[smithie6] 23/1/2017 17:53

..maybe it's you having a small top up !!

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(I had a quick look....& imho 2 biggish sales around 55p then bought in 1 new trade around 57p...if I recall correctly.

Clearly a keen buyer active today, with deep pockets !)

[rivaldo] 23/1/2017 15:28

Buying still coming in - and good to see the spread down to only 2p at 55p-57p.

[smithie6] 23/1/2017 10:09

👏👏👏

!!
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Riv
You probably prefer the lse website....STM is up +15% over there !, only 5% here ! ;-)

[rivaldo] 23/1/2017 09:47

81,000 shares just bought at 60p compared to the 57p full offer price :o))

[smithie6] 23/1/2017 08:54

24k pnds of buys gone thru and maybe 1.5k of sells
In 40 mins...
Fairly solid imbalance for STM...
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...be positive if any of the buyers were dirs. of the acquired co. ...or anyone that has calculated fin. impact of the % data for new QROPS accounts...(I haven't tried)..which was insider info. (insiders couldnt trade)..and isnt any more..so, can now buy shares

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(btw
STM cap. value....if valued wrt AU Mnmgt ( incl. aquistn. its somewhere around 2000M +/- , (!!)) then % looks lower than typical %)

[smithie6] 23/1/2017 08:35

!!

If so then a round of applause for your buy of not so manys days ago !

[rivaldo] 23/1/2017 08:30

Nice 20k buy at 54.59p just now - well above the published 54p offer price.

Chart-wise perhaps a move up to the 60p's is now on the cards.

[smithie6] 20/1/2017 20:22

My divi guess is fairly close to Finncap guess....so not so important perhaps...
(I had previously estimated a lower divi...but posted a correction...I had used ADVFN financial page summary...which doesnt yet include the 0.9p final)

(Finncap EPS prediction from 2015 for 2016 was way off....so I'm not very interested in what they have to say !....more confidence in my own views, perhaps like all seasoned PIs)

....anyway, one could also argue that the divi is not important !....
...one poster on here is up 12p on his buy price from only about a week ago !!
6 years divi if its 2p/ year !!

nice one Rivaldo !

and nice 10% jump today !

(imo these financial type of stocks normally need/take time....I think the very big EPS growth over last 24 months aint gonna get repeated....for 2015 accnts the EPS and the share price really moved :-)) )

Apologies if any STM bull was miffed by my lukewarm posts about STM over last week....but just the way I see it. Pros and cons to any share.

Enjoyable weekend to all....whether sailing or not !!

[sailing john] 20/1/2017 17:13

Smithie - I haven't read Fincap but doesn't 2p this year refer to 2017 divi
I think you are talking about 2016 divi?
And I agree 1.5p/1.6p likely for FY16 given 1H16 divi 0.5p and 2H15 of 0.9p
If so you are both right as 2p represents a small increase on 2016FY
SJ

[smithie6] 20/1/2017 16:43

..nice rise today..

..divi...my guess 1.6p...analysts guess 2p...very similar (I'd prefer zero !, prefer aquisitions)

....at least this type of financial stock is normally fairly sleepy for news & monitoring imo compared with AIM's IT stocks...a bonus !

Enjoy the weekend.


Ciao

[qs99] 20/1/2017 16:22

think ST today has reiterated STM as a buy, still talking 2p divi SMithie whether right or wrong, but enjoying the increase and IMO with this momentum may see 60p next week have a good weekend

[rivaldo] 20/1/2017 12:36

Finncap reiterated their 65p target for STM yesterday:

[rivaldo] 20/1/2017 08:22

Looking strong now - and buying coming in at above the 49p offer price at the time with a 13k buy at 50.5p. Very keen.

[smithie6] 19/1/2017 16:32

correction !

...I try to correct a previous post of mine....

DIVI

I used the ADVFN financial summary page to get divi info. (when I should have gone to the accounts to check)...and thought total 12 month divi was 0.9p but in fact it looks to be 1.4p....(0.9p and 0.5p)
and accounts give policy as 1/3rd 2/3rd for interim and final divi...
and x2-x3 cover...

60M shares. 1p = 600k pnds cost
1.5p = 900k
2p = 1.2M cost

My guess is a small increase from 0.9p to 1p for the final divi....since 2016 PBT is flat wrt 2015 with disappointing H1....and imo PBT was expected to increase...
although if the bod wants to say that '2017 accnts will be great' then phps they move to 1.3p and .7p interim....
imo it would be tight to meet x2 cover reqt at 2p divi...if produce 3.7p EPS for 2016 (2.7M PBT in RNS ..500k tax ?? (or too high ?) so say 2.2M PAT ?)....( 2015. PAT = 2.26M. 3.8P diluted EPS)

(my guess is 1p final with 2016 accnts giving 1.5p total for 2016 accnts
and maybe 0.7p announced with 2017 interims and 1.1p announced with 2017 final accounts (ie paid in 2018) ....1.8p announced for 2017 accnts

(dirs. like to always announce an increased divi....even if it is a marginal increase....and imo they like to hold cash to facilitate supporting divis if ever have a bad year....so imo I dont expect big % jumps
...and imo the co. is interested to use cash for acquisitions....so they could even stop divis if they needed the cash for an aquisition (my preference instead of any divi !...)
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2016 producing same PBT as 2015 is a dissapointment...at least 400-500k down...but mkt looks forward and expects future profit & EPS to rise due to the recent acquisn. mostly paid for by cash )
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EPS
Finncap EPS prediction of 5.7p (correct?) for 2017....smoking whacky backy imo.
...(in 2015 Finncap predicted 5.4p for 2016....was/is proven as far too high)

My guess for 2017 EPS is 4.4p. PAT of 2.65M....but need to wait to see the 2016 accounts.

[smithie6] 18/1/2017 22:32

....I guess diff. cash has to be held for different divisions/policies....to reduce risk for clients with policies in that division

over my head...

[catsick] 18/1/2017 20:02

I suspect the regulatory cash requirement may be a function of several things, the companies I have been involved in before it has been driven in part by aum as much as anything, ie if aum is less than say 500m usd you need to hold x if more then y , Its not clear from the accounts what is the gross size of all their pensions, would be interesting to know as if the average pension is 1m pounds the 750 fee can probably be ratcheted up over time , if its 50k the pressure should be downwards

[smithie6] 18/1/2017 11:34

QS
divi
imho 0.9p to 2p in 1 jump when the co. has told us that 2016 PBT is the same as 2015....and we know they have spent a chunk of cash on an acquisition...
imho logic says '2p, no way'.

Co. broker's.....imho they have to spin....or get sacked !

But who knows...dirs. will declare proposed divi in coming months.
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Release of all of cash for regulatory reqts from the acquisited company.
I think the analyst is phps wrong !

Is the regulatory reqt. for 3 months of staff costs for the service provider ?
and surely some cash is held for other reasons...phps for with profits part of schemes..
..it's over my head...

...imho all of the staff costs of the acquired co. wont vanish, only a % of them
so, my view/guess is that the regulatory cash reqd. inside STM will increase wrt 2015
but with cash coming in with the acquisition
...some cash prob. freed up after total staff nos reduced
does anyone that knows about the subject of regulatory cash reqts ?

[qs99] 18/1/2017 11:13

thanks for posting

[penpont] 18/1/2017 11:08

rivaldo -here is the ST piece from the IC on 16/1

'A case in point is Aim-traded STM (STM:49p), a financial services company specialising in the administration of assets for international clients in relation to retirement, estate and succession planning and wealth structuring.
Almost all of STM's earnings are derived from its Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Schemes (Qrops) business, an offshore pension scheme approved by HMRC and used by expatriates and internationally mobile employees whose tax domicile can change as a consequence of employment. Bearing this in mind, it was reassuring to discover that a pricing initiative introduced early last year, whereby STM waived its £800 inception fee and reduced its annual management charge from £900 to £750 on new Qrops plans, has had the desired effect of boosting new business significantly: new Qrops business in the second half of 2016 was 50 per cent higher than in the first half, and was up by more than a quarter on the same period in 2015. The point being that although STM's pre-tax profit for 2016 will be flat at £2.7m on revenue of £16.5m, in line with analysts' estimates and largely a reflection of the absence of the inception fee earned on over 1,000 new plans signed up in 2016, the additional recurring revenue generated from these plans will boost this year's profit significantly.
The company will also reap the full benefits of last autumn's acquisition of Haywards Heath-based London & Colonial (L&C), an independent financial services group. After factoring in costs savings by merging L&C's operations with those of STM, analyst Jeremy Grime at broker finnCap expects the acquisition to boost STM's profits by £500,000 in 2017, a decent return on the £5.4m purchase price. Moreover, around £4m of L&C's book value of £4.8m is cash held for regulatory purposes which is being released. That's because £4m of STM's net funds of £9.3m, worth 16p a share, is already held for the same purpose. Reassuringly, I understand the integration process is going smoothly. Also, the appointment of a new head of enterprise risk management, who boasts valuable experience with Credit Suisse in Gibraltar, is a sensible move to beef up STM's senior management team. I would also flag up that L&C has a UK self-invested personal pensions (Sipp) business with 2,000 clients, thus diversifying STM's product range by offering a Sipp to its network of financial intermediaries.
The bottom line is that the sharp increase in pension plans in STM's Qrops business, and the upside from the L&C acquisition, underpin a large chunk of the 50 per cent-plus growth in STM's pre-tax profit that finnCap predicts this year. On this basis, Mr Grime expects EPS to rise from 3.8p to 5.9p to support a 50 per cent hike in the payout per share to 2p, implying the shares are priced on eight times forward earnings and offer a prospective dividend yield of 4 per cent. That's value in my book.
So, having first advised buying at 35p ('Tapping into a pensions payday', 27 Apr 2015), and reiterated that advice at 50p at the time of the L&C acquisition ('On the financial beat', 25 Oct 2016), I continue to rate STM's shares a strong buy ahead of the full-year results on Tuesday 14 March 2017. My 70p a share target price is not unreasonable. Buy.'

[willib2] 18/1/2017 10:54

Sailingjohn, please dont forecast anything for DELTEX, you are not very good at it, remember or would you like me to remind you with an historic re post

[sailing john] 18/1/2017 10:24

Dividend history
......1H___2H
2014 0.0__ 0.0
2015 0.0__ 0.9
2016 0.5__ ?
Likely to total over 1.5p this year imo given progressive policy and excellent results
SJ

[qs99] 18/1/2017 10:01

that is what Barclays stockbrokers are showing mate divi of 2p next year, can only go by what is in front of me...DYOR