Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 21:58

I also believe there is a realistic possibility that the US$ will get walloped in 2020 & for the first time in many years the Tenge will therefore appreciate against it. That should add an additional kicker to the reported $ profit figures when the currency conversion is applied.

[leopoldalcox] 10/12/2019 21:54

80p will be just fine :)

[brasso3] 10/12/2019 21:49

Thanks for the reminder Matt, excellent post. One to keep tucked away and forget about.

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 21:45

FY18 Revs were 28,342m Tenge, of which Q4 contributed 5,926m Tenge
FY17 Revs were 21,443m Tenge, of which Q4 contributed 3,578m Tenge
FY16 Revs were 17,941m Tenge, of which Q4 contributed 2,435m Tenge


As at end Q3 2019, Revs were 24,639m Tenge

Ave. Q4 Revs for last 3 years come to 3,980m Tenge.

Using that average figure would give a FY Revs figure of 28,619m Tenge

At end Q3, the YTD Sales Volume was showing a 2% decrease YonY but, the average price for Delivered cement was up 12% YonY & the average price for Ex-Factory cement was up by 19%

FY18 Profit after Tax rose to $8.9m from $1.2m for FY17
FY18 Profit per share rose to 4.1c from 0.6c for FY17
FY18 Dividend paid rose to 3p/share from 1p/share for FY17

For FY18 Total Loans o/s reduced from $20m to $11.8m & cash on hand increased from $3m to $5.7m

As at 30th June 2019: Total Debt was $10.7m & Cash was $10.8m (subsequently $8.3m was paid as a dividend on 12th July)

As at 31st August 2019: total Debt was $9m & Cash was $3.9m

So between 30th June & 31st August this year, the company paid out $8.3m as a dividend, paid off a further $1.7m of debt & increased Cash by $1.4m

These are not the signs of a company in financial distress … quite the opposite. They may not be making a song'n'dance about it all but, this company is throwing off some decent cash, is paying down its debt per plan & paying a healthy dividend

Remains beyond my understanding why the broader market has not yet caught on to this gem …. but, am quite sure will do so come the FY19 results.

[brucie5] 10/12/2019 21:30

Bagged some this morning for an income folio. Mind you, EVRas, another high payer has not been so kind, so the market often misprices for a reason.

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 17:15

compare the figures in that article with Steppe's last update and commentary on prices …. obvious why Steppe is investing in the bagging facility.

Even allowing for 12% VAT on the CEMNET prices in the their November update (which may or may not be a factor), there seems a noticeable premium for 50Kg bagged cement as compared to bulk.

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 17:03

Kazakhstan cement price rises 6%


By ICR Newsroom

24 November 2017


In October Kazakhstan the average price of a 50kg bag of M400 cement reached KZT1252 (US$3.79), a 0.3 per cent MoM rise and an increase of 5.7 per cent when compared with the year-ago period. By comparison, the annual inflation rate in the country was 7.7 per cent.

The highest prices for cement in Kazakh key cities were reported in Uralsk (KZT1609/bag, +12.5 per cent YoY) and Atyrau (KZT1525/bag, +14.2 per cent YoY), while the lowest cement prices were paid in Almaty (KZT1020/bag, -13% per cent YoY) and Taraz (KZT1081/bag, +1.4%per cent YoY).

The strongest rise in prices was recorded in Semipalatinsk, where a 31.3 YoY hike was reported, up to KZT1469 per bag of cement.

Cement production in the country advanced by 7.5 per cent to 8.4Mt in the first 10 months of the year. Some 2.5Mt or around 30 per cent of this total was produced in the south, reflecting a 13.6 per cent rise in output when compared with the equivalent period in 2016. A further 26.1 per cent or 2.2Mt was supplied by cement producers in the east, who increased their output by 15.8 per cent YoY.
Kazakhstan is largely self-sufficient in cement with 3Q imports accounting for only 8.6 per cent of demand.

[wilo101] 10/12/2019 16:53

Looks like a good move to new levels, which is unusual at this time of the year, in-winter, and bides well going forward.

[tenapen] 10/12/2019 16:24

A few days ago the *FT had a headline about the cost of cement rising. I do not subscibe and so could not read the full article. I was happy to see 'Steppe' on todays leader board as i did not know of a cement play.

Fingers crossed and not burned ! as cement will burn if you do not wear gloves ;-) .

*

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 15:07

that is still 80p target Leopold

[leopoldalcox] 10/12/2019 14:44

Hi Matt,Whilst I agree this is undervalued, I'm not sure of a 6% yield.It's a small cap in a cyclical sector with a lot of country risk. I would say 7-8% would be understandable

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 13:44

I've looked around over the course of this year and cannot find anything else as daftly cheap as this is now so, have continued to add and will keep doing so.
The time for simply peering in to the mouth of this particular gift-horse is surely now over?

[cheshire man] 10/12/2019 13:42

Around £2k buy printed and having to pay 32.22p so not taking much to move this north

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 13:40

very likely we will see at least 4p dividend paid for this year's trading but, could be 5-6p dividend.
On a (now) 33p buy price that is something in the region of 12 - 18% yield.
10x what you can get on a cash savings account.

The price here has been non-sensical for months but, cannot and will not stay down at these levels for much longer.

If they pay out 6p/share dividend this should be £1

[fozzie] 10/12/2019 13:36

Some very welcome relief from the constant downward churn in the rest of my porty.

[leopoldalcox] 10/12/2019 13:31

Why the rise today? Good to see but doesnt seem to correspond with any news

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 12:05

taking its time but, the opportunity to purchase at 30p or under has been getting less & less frequent over the last 6 months.
4 weeks to go before the preliminary update on 2019 & by then I would be very surprised if there was stock going for anything under 40p.

From about this time in 2018, the share price went on to print over a 100% gain in the following 4 months

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 09:07

dividend yield at these prices is simply too strong to ignore.
Coupled with the large discrepancy between market cap and value of the plant & rolling stock, I believe there is a very sizeable margin of safety

[cheshire man] 10/12/2019 08:52

I took some last week excellent divi and the chart looking good too :-)

[mattjos] 10/12/2019 08:28

Few more for me also

[jbe81] 10/12/2019 08:16

Am amazed these are still this cheap, bought some, doesn’t seem to be much supply about

[mattjos] 09/12/2019 11:11

27.6 v 28.6 for 30k either way. Max available to buy online is 31k but, can sell more than that

[king suarez] 27/11/2019 19:58

I think 4p should be the conservative minimum dividend for 2019. I'm really hoping for 5p+ for 2019 and 6p+ for 2020.

Share price has to be doubling from here at least. I keep saying it! :)

[mattjos] 27/11/2019 18:26

At less than 30p to buy, I will be delighted with 4p+ … that's a 13% Yield

4p+ divi and the stock should be trading more in the 60-120p range, afaiac

[king suarez] 27/11/2019 17:35

Matt,

Yes, the 2018 dividend was paid in 2019, but I think there is confusion over your comment below:

"The FY 2019 results.... As compared to FY17 the company will be $1.8m better off in cash (reduced interest costs). That's more than 50% of the 2018 dividend costs covered in that metric alone."

If we are calling the 2018 dividend 3p, which cost STCM $8.2m, then a reduction in interest costs of $1.8m (comparing FY 2017 to predicted FY 2019 results) is not more than 50% of $8.2m - that's why I highlighted it. I think you meant to say the 2018 payout of 1p (c$3m) i.e the 2017 dividend? - since your comment is trying to compare the position over 2 consecutive accounting years, not one?

Anyway - do you agree we could/should be looking at a 5 - 6p dividend in the near future?