Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 30/10/2019 11:05

Crikey! Its alive!

[wanobi] 30/10/2019 10:36

nope your eyes are 20:20 jeanesy :-) LOL GLA Cheers Wan :-)

[jeanesy] 30/10/2019 08:22

Do my eyes deceive me or is that some blue i see today ..sssh !!

[jeanesy] 29/10/2019 13:27

Still more buys above 27p and one of 50k ..but the shareprice is unmoved !

[king suarez] 25/10/2019 20:31

Yes, volume almost dead at the moment - strange with a trailing yield over 11%.

Remains seriously cheap!

Expect an increase in the dividend for 2020, but we won't get the next market update until Jan, so not a traders share - with minimal news flow.

[jeanesy] 25/10/2019 16:13

Today sees first buy price above 27p for a while. All very quiet here atmo.

[jailbird] 18/10/2019 21:49

Jeanesy,

Rollover trades

[jeanesy] 18/10/2019 19:37

A couple of 140k trades today . Is our seller back or are they buys ?

[jbe81] 15/10/2019 15:32

A nice bit of buying today, still think this is one of the cheapest shares out there.

[jbe81] 14/10/2019 14:09

Matt, do you consider STCM or CNG cheaper at the moment?

[mattjos] 12/10/2019 13:54

I believe is quite reasonable to assume that management very clearly understand their cost/t at any given production volume & that production from the modern dry line is lower cost/t than production from the older wet lines.
There will be a 'sweet spot' in their total production volume v production cost curve & if they are able to run the plant in this sweet spot and continue to capture rising Av. Sales Prices then, shareholders should be more than happy.
Remember "Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity."

[mattjos] 12/10/2019 13:29

If there was major over-supply in the country, you would expect to see both ex-Factory & Delivered prices falling quite dramatically.

This does not seem to be the case.

YTD Revs.....+10%

YTD Sales Volume is.....-2%

YTD Ave. Delivered price is 18,157/t.....+12.35% YonY & +0.65% on Ave. for H1
YTD Ave. ex-Factory price is 15,301/t....+19.0% YonY & +1.0% on Ave. for H1

I do not understand why the value of this company has been so severely marked down on the basis of these business metrics.
Management are consciously choosing profit rather than sales volume & the figures suggest the more profitable sales are currently those closer to the factory.
The H1 results did advise "Selling expenses increased in KZT by 12% on per tonne basis due to inflation in transport costs"

Both metrics are +ve as compared to H1 values.

I appreciate that the USD is particularly strong against the Tenge but, nothing whatsoever the company can do about that.

[novicetrade68] 09/10/2019 22:57

Their high demand quarter fell by 3% but Kazakhstan had the unusual development of a new president after 30 years, so in hindsight I guess there was an impact during this time.. the new regime will likely stay pro-economy and building their new personal monuments, as well as new factories and new offices should, I would imagine, resume as usual if it hasn't already.

[novicetrade68] 09/10/2019 22:37

Oversupply could be true, but the papers don't seem to confirm that, I would give STCM a cautious plus because of their contacts, pre-marketing effort as well as the quality of their product (not to be entirely underestimated actually, poor quality bricks are not going to sell...ever)

The other thing to bear in mind is that even if they miss their own targets by less than 5%, their debt repayments should amount to at least $3m+ annually, so in theory this should still go only one way, ie up, bar any imminent disaster in the country or market, or MMs taking waaaaay to long to properly rerate debt reductions.....

[podgyted] 08/10/2019 22:41

My concern was it fell during their high demand quarter.

Combining this with the Analyst note, which seems to suggests major oversupply in the country, I decided to move to just watching - could be right could be wrong.

[zangdook] 08/10/2019 20:30

not a huge drop, especially compared to the large increase from q1 to q2

[king suarez] 08/10/2019 18:59

That makes sense, thanks.

[podgyted] 08/10/2019 16:52

KS

MT to Q1 = 266,393, to Q2 780,315 and to Q3 1,357,007.
Average ex-factory price Q1 13,614 KZT, to Q2 15,148 and to Q3 15,301.

Therefore sales ex-factory to Q1 3,626 M, to Q2 11,820 M and to Q3 20,763 M.

Splitting out the seperate quarters gives:-

Q1 13,614
Q2 15,943
Q3 15,508

[mr roper] 08/10/2019 11:42

They're also consistently increasing market share.

[king suarez] 08/10/2019 11:16

@Pogyted - where are you getting a drop in ex-factory prices for Q3 from?

Thanks

[fozzie] 08/10/2019 09:28

I'm thinking if this falls any further i will be in for a lot more ;o)

[novicetrade68] 08/10/2019 09:23

In their cement business they're protecting if not increasing their margins as STCM spends a good wack on pre-marketing costs(enticing customers), so the actual profit they're making could actually be a lot higher in reality, or in line, inflation adjusted.

[jbe81] 08/10/2019 08:15

Not sure thats we are all thinking, and share price is in £.

[podgyted] 07/10/2019 22:36

Pretty quiet here, so let me state what you're all thinking.

Results were worse than expected.

Results suggested, for the future, there is potentially the start of a price war - lower volume and for the first time in a while a fall in ex-factory price if you look at Q3 by itself - specific reference to not chasing volume at the detriment of price.

Lot of the growth here in the recent past quarters has been increased price.

The KZT has been falling against the dollar.

Not looking as good.

No longer in - now watching.