Standard Life Aberdeen Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 11/8/2018 10:20

mcun, one thing is clear - the buyback is a return to shareholders because, unassailably, a buyback increases the price from what it would otherwise have been. This is clear from the mechanics of the orderbook.

If it would have dropped 50p without the buyback, then with the buyback it may only drop 20p for example. If it would have risen 50p without, then with it would rise 80p for example.

If you think the price will stay the same for 2 3 motnths, then simply sell or don't buy in and buy something you think will rise. You must have a great crystal ball to forsee all the factors affecting the world economy, the uk economy, the insurance sector and sla itself, since all of those factors affect the sla sharprice.

one things for sure with price predictions on advfn, if you get it right you'll be back to tell us but if you get it wrong it won't be mentioned again.

[mcunliffe1] 11/8/2018 09:37

timmy11, thank you for correcting me. I'd used an "average" figure from a portfolio I have; eyesight issues. It should read £3.27 (approx.) at Friday close, 10th August.
I therefore predict little change at about £3.20 - £3.35 by mid-end November after completion of the buy-back.

[timmy11] 11/8/2018 09:00

mcunliffe sure youre on the right share

[mcunliffe1] 11/8/2018 08:39

Share price now is about £2.08 at Friday, 10th August market close.
Let's see where it's at by late November when the share buy-back is complete.

I predict it will be little changed at about £1.95 - £2.05

Then you may ask the question - would it have been much lower WITHOUT a buy-back?

[chinese investor] 10/8/2018 19:28

End Of Day Auction.

[cmackay] 10/8/2018 17:13

There's a big buy at the end.

[pierre oreilly] 09/8/2018 18:04

The problem with going against the crowd is that you will never get your own way. The crowd votes on resolutions and approves various actions the company proposes, so it does what the crowd want. You could call an egm and put forward your proposals, but you're unlikely to get anywhere imv. You could for exmmple propose that the company stops divi payments using the same reasoning as above but again, i expect the crowd want their divis.

The company hasn't proposed liquidating all its assets and returning all that cash to shareholders. If it did propose that, it's likely the proposal would be rejected. So the answer to 'what level of disposal is ideal' would only be answered by a shareholder vote - but i doubt anyone would want any more disposals this year for example.

The buyback increases the value of your shares by the assets and profits being divided between fewer shares.

[mcunliffe1] 09/8/2018 16:58

Pierre, thanks. However, I take a different view than the crowd on most things. If a company has spare capital that will be known and documented and the share price will, to some extent, reflect that as part of the "wealth" or value of the company. If that money is used to buy shares it is an exchange of an asset. The end result is less shares in circulation, less capital in the company and hence a lower company "valuation" albeit spread between a lesser number of shares.

I fail to understand how this exercise can seriously increase the value of those shares remaining in circulation - ie. MINE.

What I was suggesting however is a different approach. If the aim is to increase shareholder value perhaps a better performance would help. They should invest that "spare" capital in order to earn money, increase profits and exceed analyst's expectations. In my experience that will increase the share price.

I know they disposed of their UK and European insurance division - sold to Phoenix. If you extend that logic fully the whole of the Std Life/Abderdeen group could be sold and ALL the money returned to shareholders. That's not ideal I accept, but what level of disposal is? And why not have the whit to invest those proceeds in something that SLA can grow and hence offer real returns to shareholders?

[pierre oreilly] 09/8/2018 09:37

mcun - it's a return to sharehlders. The buybacks cause the prce to be higher than it would otherwise be. It's part and parcel of the company sales and financial reorganisation sla has made. They have sufficient working capital, this is part of the excess due to selling off one of their busineses.

[p49b] 09/8/2018 09:17

I had the impression return of capital 1billion, then share consolidation, then 750m
buyback, when the PHNX deal was done, why buy back shares now?.

[mcunliffe1] 09/8/2018 09:02

So, an investment company uses spare cash to buy back its own shares in order to reduce the share capital of the company. During the buying phase the share price is likely to rise as a substantial number are being bought within a clearly defined period.

I'd suspect that at the end of that period the share price will then revert to the trend it has established over the past six months, ie. falling. And that in a generally rising marketplace.

I wonder if the executive bonus scheme relies upon a share price to reach a particular point somewhere before 21st Nov ember 2018. If I recall, their year-end is the 15th November.

So, why can't an investment company utilise the "spare" capital in a more productive manner by investing it. It's what we pay them to do after all.

[chinese investor] 09/8/2018 08:12

Headlam "Floorcoverings" Group are selling !

[chinese investor] 09/8/2018 08:06

All Good !

[chinese investor] 09/8/2018 07:21

That's 72 Working Days !
Around 800,000 Every Day !

[chinese investor] 09/8/2018 07:17

"The Company announces that it will commence an initial share repurchase programme of the Company's ordinary shares up to a maximum consideration of GBP175m (the "Programme").

On 08 August 2018, the Company entered into a non-discretionary instruction with Merrill Lynch International ("Merrill Lynch") in relation to the purchase by Merrill Lynch, acting as principal, of ordinary shares in the Company's share capital (the "Shares") for an aggregate consideration of no greater than GBP175m.

The purchase of Shares will take place during the period commencing on 09 August 2018 and ending no later than 21 November 2018.

Any purchase of Shares done in relation to this announcement will be carried out on the London Stock Exchange and executed in accordance with the Listing Rules and the Company's authority to make market purchases of Shares.

The Company will announce any market repurchase of Shares no later than 7.30 a.m. on the business day following the calendar day on which the repurchase occurred.

The purpose of the Programme is to reduce the share capital of the Company.

All Shares purchased will be cancelled."

[pal44] 08/8/2018 21:57

C investor may be 360 by Xmas ?

[rabbrooks] 08/8/2018 17:16

Pity that Anne Richards has finished up at a competitors instead of SLA I believe she has been missed.

[eipgam] 08/8/2018 12:40

And a NED has just spent fifty grand on shares...

[patdavey] 08/8/2018 10:40

For me, the annual dividend income from SLA works out at well over 5%. I doubt this figure will be under threat for the next year or two, so I am happy to hold.

[chinese investor] 08/8/2018 10:24

One mustn't forget that losing the Scottish Widows business means we will not be visiting the 400p plus territory for sometime.

[chinese investor] 08/8/2018 09:58

They are going to buy 55,000,000 shares.
Their trades should be obvious !

[chinese investor] 08/8/2018 09:24

Can't see anything stopping this until 350p !

[mcunliffe1] 08/8/2018 09:11

Gerry Grimstone tells us he's buying back £175m of shares - starting very soon - and the share price leaps.

Gerry, perhaps you should have bought them last week BEFORE your announcement caused a share price increase - you'll have bought more for OUR money.

Alternatively, try opening your mouth more often and perhaps THAT will help the beleaguered share price more than your financial investment capabilities and those of the terrible twins.

[pal44] 07/8/2018 18:34

About bloody time ..

[ramellous] 07/8/2018 17:07

It's probably going into SLI.. Stan life global smaller companies fund. A star performer