Star Energy Share Discussion Threads

[dannymaz89] 25/4/2024 08:08

Unrisked broker target £2.42 from yesterday's report, this assumes:SSE Stoke network green light (Q2 expectation)Croatia success (it was a success awaiting development licence)Glentworth and corringham appraisal (shovel ready, potential farm in)Easy hold here guys

[jack007] 24/4/2024 16:43

It's all very wishy washy. They are a bunch of muppets but they might be on to something

[kibes] 24/4/2024 16:30

Reasonable results from the oil and gas portfolio but I've no idea whether the Croatian geothermal is worth anything at all. Where are the project economics? It is no more than a idea at the moment. And why should they make asset sales? They need to carry on with oil and gas as the core business and should say so.

[dannymaz89] 24/4/2024 13:50

STAR"The Company is looking to bring in new partners in 2H24 to invest in development projects, but acknowledged that asset sales might also help to demonstrate the industry value of the UK oil and gas portfolio."

[dannymaz89] 24/4/2024 13:50

Star Energy (STAR LN) 11.1p, Market Cap £14m:Transition strategy continues• Star reported average FY23 production of 2.1kboe/d generating £49.5m revenues and £15m operating cash flow (before working cap movements) to end the period with net debt of £1.6m as at 31st December.• The Company guides average FY24 production of 2.0kboe/d and operating costs of c.$41/boe, which is based on £5.5m cash capex that includes near-term incremental projects with short cycle returns and maintenance.• Star's independent CPR estimated a small increase in YE23 reserves to 11.7mboe (1P) and 17.5mb (2P), which has a pre-tax NPV of $143m and $235m respectively, plus 18.6mboe of 2C contingent resources.• The Company commented that its UK projects continue to suffer from regulatory creep and ever-increasing delays in obtaining regulatory approval for environmental permits, which are commonly in excess of 12M.Star continues to optimise its UK oil and gas assets by investing to maximise recovery from the existing 2kboe/d onshore production base and progress near term incremental development opportunities to utilise the £240m tax loss.However, management recognised on the results call that the UK onshore E&P sector remains out of favour and that the market gives little value to its pivot towards the growth of the geothermal business in the UK and in Croatia.The Company is looking to bring in new partners in 2H24 to invest in development projects, but acknowledged that asset sales might also help to demonstrate the industry value of the UK oil and gas portfolio. Despite Star's early mover advantage on geothermal energy that can be funded via its new five-year €25m credit facility, we think the market needs more clarity on UK tariffs and Croatian funding partners to enhance visibility on the opportunity set and commerciality of these projects.

[dannymaz89] 24/4/2024 12:16

https://www.sharecast.com/amp/news/broker-recommendations/canaccord-genuity-raises-target-price-on-star-energy--16651330.html

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 11:11

Star has to announce a GBP 2-3 million buyback at such insanely low share price levels!!!

It is a fiduciary must for the board/management!!!

[jack007] 24/4/2024 10:40

Don't panic then!

[dannymaz89] 24/4/2024 10:06

So near term for STAR we have Glentworth Phase 1 oil project environmental permits are expected imminently Corringham site preparation completeBletchingley gas-to-wire secured grid connection NHS hospital trust geothermal projects in Manchester and Salisbury progressing through feasibility stageCroatia development planFarm in for glentworth and corringhamSSE JV q2

[sea7] 24/4/2024 09:19

What should be noted is the £21 million positive movement in performance..

operating profit was £7.2 million in 2023, whereas it was a loss of £13.8 million in 2022 - that is a £21 million positive swing.

[sea7] 24/4/2024 09:06

This should generate 47gwh of power when up and running...

Bletchingley

The Bletchingley gas to wire project now has full planning consent, environmental permits and a secured grid connection. Further work by the Distribution Network Operator is underway to optimise the grid connection routing. Subject to this being finalised, expected imminently, the project is now "shovel ready".

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 08:54

Crazy valuation on Star Energy

Enterprise Value (EV) / EBITDA -> $20,352,572 / (GBP16,1000,000 * GBPUSD 1.24)
At a share price of 11.5p STAR EV/EBITDA = 1.02 Times!!! [A compelling 4.89 Times including Decommissioning Provisions]

Free Cash Flow Yield% (Market Cap / Free Cash Flow) -> £15,000,000 / £14,813,365
At a share price of 11.5p STAR Free Cash Flow Yield =101.2%!!! [FCF still a whopping 19.1% including Long Dated Decommissioning Provisions -> Note 2P NPV10 = $235 million at $72 BRENT]

DeGolyer & MacNaughton updated CPR values 2P NPV10 at $235 million (2022: $215 million) using an oil price assumption of c.$72/bbl for 5 years, then inflated
at 2-3% p.a. from 2028 to 2050

2P NPV10 US$235 million AT $72/bbl Brent Price ASSUMPTION!!!!

66p new target Cannacord Equity Research ->
"Valuation, target price and rating We take account for our new commodity assumptions and make a number of adjustments to our model, taken together we
increase our risked NPV10 based target price to 66p (from 55p) and maintain our Buy rating on Star Energy"

At current oil prices STAR are making over £2m in profit every single month!!!!

[sea7] 24/4/2024 08:52

Update to CPR

DeGolyer & MacNaughton updated CPR values 2P NPV10 at $235 million (2022: $215 million) using an oil price assumption of c.$72/bbl for 5 years, then inflated at 2-3% p.a. from 2028 to 2050

[dannymaz89] 24/4/2024 08:44

https://x.com/theunsophistic2/status/1783038765381935174?s=46&t=4s-AQzZhMmeWz3Ire1AEsA

[sea7] 24/4/2024 08:41

Tax losses

The Group has gross total tax losses and similar attributes carried forward of £362.1 million (2022: £355.3 million). Deferred tax assets have been recognised in respect of tax losses and other temporary differences where the Directors believe it is probable that these assets will be recovered based on a five-year profit forecast or to the extent that there is offsetting deferred tax liabilities. Such recognised tax losses include £109.5 million (2022: £123.2 million) of ringfence corporation tax losses which will be recovered at 30% of future taxable profits, £92.6 million (2022: £119.8 million) of supplementary charge tax losses which will be recovered at 10% of future taxable profits and £4.3 million (2022: £1.9 million) of losses arising under the EPL regime which will be recovered at 35% of future taxable profits.

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 08:41

Crazy valuation on Star Energy

Enterprise Value (EV) / EBITDA -> $20,352,572 / (GBP16,1000,000 * GBPUSD 1.24)
At a share price of 11.5p STAR EV/EBITDA = 1.02 Times!!!

Free Cash Flow Yield% (Market Cap / Free Cash Flow) -> £15,000,000 / £14,813,365
At a share price of 11.5p STAR Free Cash Flow Yield =101.2%!!!

DeGolyer & MacNaughton updated CPR values 2P NPV10 at $235 million (2022: $215 million) using an oil price assumption of c.$72/bbl for 5 years, then inflated at 2-3% p.a. from 2028 to 2050

2P NPV10 US$235 million AT $72/bbl Brent Price ASSUMPTION!!!!

66p new target Cannacord Equity Research ->

"Valuation, target price and rating We take account for our new commodity assumptions and make a number of adjustments to our model, taken together we increase our risked NPV10 based target price to 66p (from 55p) and maintain our Buy rating on Star Energy"

At current oil prices STAR are making over £2m in profit every single month!!!!

[sea7] 24/4/2024 08:41

news to come...

The development of the Stoke-on-Trent project has taken longer than anticipated..

This due diligence was conducted during the year and the technical and commercial aspects of the geothermal heat provision within the project were signed off by the consultant towards the end of Q3 2023. Subsequent to the year end, SSE, as lead applicant have submitted a project change request to the GHNF which seeks to amend both the capital grant as well as the timetable within which that grant will be spent. A decision is expected in the second quarter of 2024.

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 08:40

STAR Share Price: 11.50p
Brent: $88.50
STAR Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 7.12p on 29 Feb 24: 61.52%
STAR Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 19.98p on 28 Apr 23: -42.41%
Total Voting Rights: 128,811,866
Market Cap GBP: £14,813,365
GBPUSD: 1.240
Market Cap USD: $18,368,572
Net Debt-GBP (31 Dec 23): £1,600,000
Net Debt-USD (31 Dec 23): $1,984,000
Enterprise Value (USD): $20,352,572
STAR Actual Production Average Full Year 2023 Boe/d) 2,100
STAR 2024 Production Guidance (Boe/d) 2,000
STAR/IGAS Actual Average Production 2022: 1,898
EV/BARREL- Actual 2023 Average Production: $9,692
EV/BARREL-USD FY 2024 Guidance: $10,176
Decommissioning Provision FY 2023 Results (GBP): £62,411,000
Decommissioning Provision FY 2023 Results (USD): $77,389,640
EV/BARREL-USD FY 2024 Guidance with Decommissioning: $48,871
IGAS 2P Reserves Year End 2023 Boe: 17,470,000
EV/2P $1.17

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 08:39

It appears Croatia Geothermal well is a success based on the below from STAR's results presentation ->

Why mention a development plan to be submitted if the well was a duster!!! Appears to be a success!!! Excellent that STAR are looking at bringing in farm-in partner for Croatia!!!

Page 12

Key milestones for 2024 – Croatia Geothermal

Satisfied Ernestinovo licence commitment Prepare Ernestinovo development plan and
convert licence to exploitation phase

On Sjece and Pcelic:
• Conduct magneto-telluric survey
• Perform subsurface integrated subsurface studies
• Define preferred drilling/development locations
Assess strategic partner farm-in potential
Prepare drilling campaign
Tender for competitive drilling contract

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 08:33

Full Results on London Stock Exchange ->

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 08:25

STAR Share Price: 11.50p
Brent: $88.50
STAR Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 7.12p on 29 Feb 24: 61.52%
STAR Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 19.98p on 28 Apr 23: -42.41%
Total Voting Rights: 128,811,866
Market Cap GBP: £14,813,365
GBPUSD: 1.240
Market Cap USD: $18,368,572
Net Debt-GBP (31 Dec 23): £1,600,000
Net Debt-USD (31 Dec 23): $1,984,000
Enterprise Value (USD): $20,352,572
STAR Actual Production Average Full Year 2023 Boe/d) 2,100
STAR 2024 Production Guidance (Boe/d) 2,000
STAR/IGAS Actual Average Production 2022: 1,898
EV/BARREL- Actual 2023 Average Production: $9,692
EV/BARREL-USD FY 2024 Guidance: $10,176
Decommissioning Provision FY 2023 Results (GBP): £62,411,000
Decommissioning Provision FY 2023 Results (USD): $77,389,640
EV/BARREL-USD FY 2024 Guidance with Decommissioning: $48,871
IGAS 2P Reserves Year End 2023 Boe: 17,470,000
EV/2P $1.17

[jack007] 24/4/2024 08:19

Very cagey and disappointing

[bad gateway] 24/4/2024 08:08

Reading between the lines it does sound like they've dusted in Croatia imo.
They moved from ..

" We are excited to begin the well re-entry on Ernestinovo-3. The speed with which we have constructed a well pad and commenced this operation demonstrates both the expertise of our local partners and the efficiency of the Croatian regulators. The Ernestinovo licence has excellent data from three deep exploration wells drilled in the 1980s and would suggest high temperatures and flow rates are achievable from this well . Our UK and Croatian teams are working closely to ensure a successful operation. "

when they announced start of drilling

To..

"The primary objective of the testing programme was to secure the licence and obtain additional technical data on permeability and chemistry. Combining this additional data with the existing technical data from all three secured licences, the Company will rank the opportunities with a view to progressing commercial development of the sites in an optimal manner."

With no talk or data on the high flow rates they expected from this first well.

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 07:53

From the other forum ->

Today 07:20

66p new target Cannacord Equity Research

Valuation, target price and rating We take account for our new commodity assumptions and make a number of adjustments to our model, taken together we increase our risked NPV10 based target price to 66p (from 55p) and maintain our Buy rating on Star Energy.

[ashkv] 24/4/2024 07:51

Cracking results - hopefully share price reflects so in the cruel/pain inducing UK share market.

Highlights

Operating cashflow before working capital movements & after operating lease payments £13.2m
• Expenditure on early-stage geothermal activities £2.0m to progress transition
• Capex
• Conventional £7.9m
• Geothermal £0.6m
• A14 acquisition £1.3

UK Oil and Gas
• Average daily production of 2,100 boepd in 2023, up from 1,898 boepd in 2022
• High well uptime has led to stable and predictable production
• Opex of $40.3/boe vs. $41.5/boe in 2022
• Continue to invest in quick returning optimisation projects that either give
incremental production increases or opex reduction

Outlook
• Expected production rate of c.2,000 boepd for 2024
• Expected Opex for 2024 of $41.0/boe
• Focus on Opex reduction

Key milestones for 2024 – UK Oil & Gas ->
• Seek savings through rightsizing of G&A
• Invest in quick return optimisationprojects, increasing production and reducing opex
• Hold production stable at c.2,000 boepd
• Focus on maximising cashflow from oil & gas operations
• Seek farm-in partners to accelerate execution of larger development projects & then execute one or more