Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[highasakite] 01/1/2018 20:41

Jasdan

You are a deluded fool. You need psychiatric treatment.

Have you checked the SG balance sheet ? do you know how to read a balance sheet ?

If the company was saved by a debt for equity swap shareholders will be diluted to death.

This is a busted flush.

[pugugly] 01/1/2018 19:12

ALS: I am afraid you may be wasting your time pointing the above out to jasdan - He seems unmoved by finacial facts and also the trend in the marketing of collectables plus the erosion (imo) of the desirability of stamps as a collectable (and occasionaly a contract facilitator - BRIBE - ) in many countries. OK I may be biased as managed to get out on the spike to some 12p on the bid rumour having taken as significant holding (for me) in the 10p rights/placement but still took an overall bath.

Agree with your thoughts that may well not be around in the current form by the end of this year.

You might be interested in "The Innovator's Dilema" by Clayton Christensen (which I picked up at a book fair before Chrismas) - While some 20 years old as published in 1997 still very applicable as to why some market leaders fail and while looking interesting as Value Stocks are doomed never to recover in their previous financial structure - or my sub-title for it - Managements failure to recognise structural changes in their markets and product catagories -

[jasdan] 01/1/2018 19:00

There is a technical correction here - the default on the banking facility was not in fact realised by SG before and they had to make it clear on subsequent updates last year, after it had arisen some time before.

The point is that there would be a technical default if they had to maintain the same payments, but the bank has been accommodating in allowing them lower payments over an amended and increased timeline which they are keeping to - hence no default. Now, because of Guernsey, they are being allowed further time to discuss a proposed deal as it has opened up new potential alternatives to them:

"Whilst the Board has received offers of finance from both existing and new investors including an offer of equity conditional on the restructuring of the existing debt, the bank has requested that the Board explore improved financing options in the New Year in light of the administration of Guernsey and the significant reduction in contingent liabilities."

I do not see any sign then that shareholders face a 'total wipeout'. Do you think the 40% shareholders are going to let that happen, or the Board who are linked to these shareholders? And the bank is pretty clearly on side.

That significant reduction in liabilities was in fact a colossal thing for SG but the effect is not yet obvious, and clearly you do not believe it will have any effect! They have just got rid of £65m of liabilities without any counterparty risk - how can that not be good for shareholders?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/1/2018 18:44

"As disclosed in the annual report published on 1 October 2017, the Group is currently in default on its bank facilities"

That's straight from the interims jasdan, maybe you should have read them before buying into this dog. They actually have an incredibly weak balance sheet.

The company needs £5m of fresh equity plus has to renogotiate their bank debt. Even if they manage this shareholders face a total wipeout IMO.

[jasdan] 01/1/2018 18:24

Arthur, your comment is a bit lame! If the shares had been £3 or £4 then fair enough, but we are starting at just 4p with the prospect of new banking facility coming through shortly.
Also, you are materially incorrect - it has not defaulted on its bank debt at all - it is instead making the quarterly payments.
If you actually look at the recent update, you will see the value of their assets is approximately £70m - perhaps you should take the time to read the update before making further comments on here.

[sikhthetech] 01/1/2018 17:55

Happy New Year all...

The other point worth mentioning....
How many Philatelists actually bought the SG investment plans...

I suspect a lot would have bought the Investment plans based on their past performance rather than any understanding of the stamps or the stamp market... the same would go for investors who buy funds, how many actually understand or follow the underlying investments...

How many stamp collectors/investors would even know or follow the SG share price or the investment plans....

It's like people refuse to go shopping because Debenhams or M&S share price is falling...or let's not buy pick n mix anymore because Woolworths has gone bust...
really???

No, I doubt SG's reputation to stamp collectors and stamp investors has been dented...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/1/2018 17:31

I'm pretty sure SGI will turn out to be one of the worst performing shares on the stockmarket this year.

You have to look at the facts. It's loss making, has defaulted on its bank debt which is very high and only has so many more assets to sell before it's all gone.

Arthur

[jasdan] 01/1/2018 17:17

we start the New Year at just 4p tomorrow. I am pretty sure that SG will turn out to be one of the top performers this year on the entire stock exchange.

[pre] 01/1/2018 12:05

happy new year to all...very good post and summary Jasdan and a good reflection of what this means for SGI going forward imo.

[jasdan] 31/12/2017 19:11

I love the almost complete pessimism and resentment on here. Clearly there are so many ex SG employees or ex holders of their investment plans on here.

Fortunately, I am neither. I just own shares in SG and like Sikh, I can see what is going on here with the Board, the main investors, and the Bank. The problem with looking at the recent update is that it refers largely to the period up to end Sept only. Closing the Investment division will transform SG, but you won't be able to read about it until you are either privately briefed - like the main shareholders are [probably daily or weekly]; or publicly briefed like the rest of us are, and that means the current period - for which SG will not update us until June / July time next year.

There are some pretty inept comments on here about what sorts of stamps SG sells. Whilst it theoretically sells any stamps, in reality one would only buy the finest of stamps from them. And these would be GB or Commonwealth really. Personally, I do not see any sign that they have lost any of their reputation with Guernsey. If none of those investment plan holders realised that SG was not in a position to carry on guaranteeing the plans, then more fool them. They cannot have read the financial reports, and must have completely ignored the well publicised financial problems that SG was having!!! They are lucky that SG took so long to make this decision which should have been made last year when the new management took over - however, some of the old Board resisted such a move for a while, to the detriment of shareholders and the viability of the Group. Now we are over that, things should improve. I am very keen to see what sort of deal is hashed out between the supportive bank, the main shareholders, and the Board.

There is no way these shares will remain so low after the deal is finalised, and it is clearly now being very heavily worked upon as they have gone public on it. Frankly, I can see this stock trading increasingly in double figures shortly thereafter. Remember: this Board are specialists in this sort of deal.

[sikhthetech] 31/12/2017 14:24

Pug,

SG as a business and Stamp Collecting as an investment are separate... SG have problems but that doesn't mean Stamp Collecting is dead...

There are different levels of collectors in all hobbies/investments...

Investors don't collect 1ct G colour diamonds... They're more likely be collecting the 10ct++++ D IF ones... or the very rare collectors would collect the rarer natural coloured Pink/Blue diamonds...

Try buying a rare natural coloured pink/blue diamond off ebay...

Likewise, try buying block 4 mint, from the rare Pl11, Penny blacks off ebay or from 99% off dealers/auctions... if you can find one...
However, SG has one for sale... and I think the price of £185k is not bad...

[superiorshares] 31/12/2017 08:17

Pugugly...The trading events/fairs have always been there, organised in the main by the prominent retailers. you will find all or most of the retailers, sell online and through auctions also. If you look at the offerings you will find that in almost every case those retailers sell their lower quality stock through online and auction. A few auctions sell high quality items only but they are in the minority. Think of cars . If you want a car in pristine condition do you go to the auction or showroom ?

[knowledgeablestampman] 30/12/2017 17:50

Pugugly...... I think your two brain cells may be cross wiring. Your best advice may well be not to listen to your own advice🙂

[pugugly] 30/12/2017 14:38

sikh_ Agreed BUT SG have lost their reputation at the moment - Stamp prices as shown by Guernsey administration are down - As I say "toxic" OK maybe I am bitter ahving be screwed by prvious management but still mentain stamp collecting as a retail business is DEAD - Hence would not have even if given as a free gift -

[sikhthetech] 30/12/2017 13:31

Pug,

Look at the list, Warkwick and Sandfayre... both dealers who have been around for years... There are thousands of dealers out there.. just like there are thousands of auctions and retailers who sell fine art or gems...

Now do a search for fine art dealers.. lots of them...

You maybe lucky to find/buy a rare art, eg Da Vinci, Picasso etc from one of those thousands of dealers but don't you think fine art investors, spending tens or hundreds of millions, will likely be buying from Cristies or Sothebys

[sikhthetech] 30/12/2017 13:19

superior, good post... completely agree...
The next few months are critical... make or break...

[pugugly] 30/12/2017 09:08

collectors stamps for sale . About 5,560,000 results (0.37 seconds)



I want to buy rare stamps About 2,910,000 results (0.33 seconds)


Business model has changed significantly - So SG who used to be the World Authority now been overtaken by online C2C and or Auctions and or Trading Events - The old retail model is or may alredy have gone the way of the buggy whip !!

[superiorshares] 30/12/2017 08:57

Jasdan ... I agree with you I think the company will be around in decades time, but the position for present shareholders is either going to be non-existant or incredibly diluted . Its your posts that are not balanced but ultra positive !..that make me chuckle.

pugugly . you talk total tosh as far as philatelists go . The bulk of high value stamps are sold retail in my opinion ( Stanley, Brandon, embassy etc ). around the world you have loads and loads of retailers that sell very top end stamps , not auctions or agents. I still don't understand its all dependant on the "Agents theory"..an Ultra High Net worth collecter might use a philatelist specialist to do the work for them ?.. but that specialist is buying that stamp or stamps from whoever has it for sale and that will generally be retail.

[pugugly] 29/12/2017 17:50

jasdan- Would not touch the shares at any price - Even if you gave me the whole company - Toxic waste - Although the new Board have been and are are trying very hard to make a go of it but very much like the task of Sisyphus.

Stamp collecting appears to be a dying hobby - in both senses of the word - OK a few Ultra High Net Worth collectors but would not buy retail but via Auctions or Agents - Possibly only hope (and am not sure of discounted value of stock remaining within the plc - I suspect most ring fenced in Gurnsey) would be for a collector to buy the company - liquidate it and keep the collections - However rate this as a less than 15% chance.

[jasdan] 29/12/2017 16:42

Lets look at some recent posts on here:
1. Shareholders look set for a total wipeout here IMO.
2. BUST by March 2018
3. Alistair Jasdan Campbell. you try to put spin on everything :-)
4. The end of the road - (imo) as a listed company - Will either be taken private or liquidated.

Can I remind everyone that it is not a £5billion rights issue being contemplated - just a £5m one. And it could be accommodated by selling assets, extending the banking facility, issuing new shares etc etc. It looks as well like it is already a done deal anyway, and the ground was prepared for this at the recent AGM.

Why are all of you so surprised that they are renegotiating their banking facility? They would have had to do this when they accepted £6.5m debt from the Guernsey administration. And the bank has clearly agreed.

They will still be around in 2019 nevermind 2018, so talk of their demise is ridiculous and suggests you have not read or understand the update today.

Perhaps you are talking down the shares all the time so you can pick them up more cheaply?

It is a shame the discussion on here is not more balanced. Does anyone else agree with me?

[superiorshares] 29/12/2017 15:35

Alistair Jasdan Campbell. you try to put spin on everything :-)

[highasakite] 29/12/2017 12:43

BUST by March 2018.

[jasdan] 29/12/2017 12:37

It is pretty negative on here, but I do not read it the same way at all.

Clearly the bank are giving them extra time, equally clearly the significant reduction in contingent liabilities has meant that the Board can now explore improved financing options in the New Year.

Further shares may be issued, but will we see any of them? I reckon the main shareholders will do a private deal on these - they were allowed to after all at the recent AGM.

You need to read the statement again folks.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 29/12/2017 12:35

Shareholders look set for a total wipeout here IMO.