Standard Life Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 17/11/2017 17:48

mfm -

# LSR. It is in liquidation mode; anticipated to be by the end of next year. There is still debt to be repaid. The Update next month might clarify matters for you

# NBDG. Also in liquidation mode; with clear guidance on timing given in their Qtly Update just yesterday - see above P. No. 564

[manfrommoyse] 17/11/2017 16:58

re TJI - is there is a risk that management might collude with other shareholders and switch to reinvestment (in anything!) post delisting. LSR voted to liquidate and then had a change of heart. Not great share price performance since then (for LSR).
It just seems odd if everything is in cash why a residue for potential tax and other creditor liabilities cannot be set aside and a major repayment made prior to delisting (e.g. BGBL)

re DCI - I agree, but cant summon the belief to invest more than a pittance as new reasons to lose money keep occuring to the management. tilton boy - do you recall all those projections in DCI reports that showed just how much value was going to be released over time? It might be fun (!) and instructive to take another look now we are a few years down the line.

re NBDG - the clue is in the DG. I am keeping an eye on HYG given most investments are in the US. If it continues downwards I may hedge via an IG short, but the yield and interest payments would be considerable.

It's tough this investing lark.

[tiltonboy] 17/11/2017 12:59

It may well be worth re-visiting the case for one of the biggest "dogs" of this decade, which is DCI.

The company had very much de-risked itself, with a couple of asset sales (giveaways)over the last year. Admittedly, this further decimated the NAV, but at least it virtually assured survival.

After a quiet 8 months, there has at last been some newsflow.

On 2nd November, the company announced that the ultra-luxury operator One & Only, were partnering the development of the Kea Resort. The development and asset management of the project will be undertaken by Dolphin, and DCI will jointly control the project with One&Only.

I believe this is a material event, and with Amanzoe performing well, gives a lot more visibility on NAV.

The sale of their shareholding in Aristo fell through earlier in the year, but trading has improved, and they have recently been given the green light on a new development:

hxxp://www.mononews.gr/news-business-aristo-developers-prasino-gia-iperpoliteli-touristiki-ependisi-stin-ilia/217925

Management expenses remain high, but with an anticipated two year timeline to dispose of all of the assets, there may be an opportunity here.

I'm long from a lot higher up, but now believe I might get a substantial recovery.

Worth having a look, but don't take my word for it, and always DYOR.

[rjmahan] 17/11/2017 12:15

I should post on TJI - it is having a delisting vote - after which you are likely to get 0.60c a share - you can currently buy at 0.50c a share.

It needs a liquidator appointed but I recon it should be straightforward (famous last words).

more here:
hxxps://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/tejoori-tji-vote-for-delisting-potential-20-quick-gain/

[skyship] 16/11/2017 10:03

If anyone is looking for a relatively secure 10%pa for the next 2-2.5yrs; then I would urge you to take a look, or look again, at the Global Shares (NBDG - chart in the Header) of the NB Distressed Debt Fund (NBDD). In their Qtly Update issued today the Fund has given some very welcome guidance on the ensuing liquidation. The opening remark is massively encouraging - c90% of NAV is to be distributed over the next 2yrs:

Manager Commentary
On 31 March 2017, the portfolio ended the investment period and entered its harvest period. In the harvest period the Investment Manager works to restructure, reorganise and reposition the assets in order to maximise the intrinsic value. Although the actual time and realisation values are uncertain as of now, based on our current analysis we expect to distribute 50-60% of current Net Asset Value ("NAV") in 2018, 35-40% in 2019, and the remainder in 2020

To put matters into context, these Gross Redemption Yields (Yields to Maturity) apply from the current offer price of 78.5p (16.5% discount to current NAV), assuming payouts to 31/12/19:

# Payout at par (100p) - GRY = 12.08%
# Payout at a pretty disgraceful 95p - GRY = 9.41%
If they still manage to reach a premium; which really should be achievable, then:
# Payout at 105p - GRY = 14.69%

A 10%pa return may be of little interest to many; however for those managing SIPPs then NBDG could tick a few boxes. Certainly does for me, so NBDG is my largest holding.

NB:

1. This link provides the fuller story of NBDD/NBDG



2. The NAV is declared daily. Currently at 94p

[rjmahan] 26/10/2017 22:09

Check out SIHL too - they are selling major listed holdings paid cash recently but I suspect much more to come....

[dalmeny] 25/10/2017 23:02

Thanks Skyship. I'll take a closer look at these.

[skyship] 22/10/2017 12:40

dalmeny - thnx for yr post. Many of the usual suspects there, inc. many whose assets are overseas and of dubious or unquantifiable value.

Nevertheless, turns can be made. I did so recently out of ALF. Happily scalped 20% inc. a small redemption; but suspect I'll leave it at that!

Only other ones I'll comment upon at this stage are:

# LXB - reducing NAV has bombed the sp; possibly excessively - but who knows? Too many known unknowns to tempt me back in...

# CDI - reducing value of its largest holding has bombed both the NAV and the share price 120p perhaps fair value @ c8% discount if Parques Reunidos can further recover from current E13.25. A hold; but not a BUY IMO...

# LSR - rather becalmed @ c31p v. NAV of c44p. Needs more sales news; or perhaps that elusive bid. Feel sure that I and others would happily accept a 36p offer; a level which leaves enough to play for from a bidder who would in any event bid for the portfolio rather than the company itself. A BUY @ 31p IMO...

# JPEL - Recent rise reflects the sudden NAV mark-up last month. Happy to hold for currency diversification whilst the 17.5% discount for a liquidating stock continues to offer value @ 137c

# DNE - value rather opaque and timelines similar; but for sure the recent good news has enervated the share price - though now looks rather toppy. Sell into strength has always been a fair motto

# MTH - Goodbye old friend, as I got 100% in the last Tender @ 224p. Just last week the NAV was upped to 241p....so still life there for the remaining holders...

[pvb] 21/10/2017 18:36

What are all those numbers? Like DNE14, MTH7

[dalmeny] 20/10/2017 10:59

I am sorry to see this thread so neglected as I think the sector still contains many companies and some of these must present attractive investment opportunities. As a value investor interested in assets rather than growth stories I find many value situations – companies trading well below book value. The problem with most of them is that they have a dominant shareholder and it is hard to see how value will be outed absent a catalyst. The great advantage of self liquidation situations is that the catalyst has already occurred. Analysis is therefore confined to the reliability of book tangible NAV, the likely duration of the self liquidation process and the annual cash burn (sorry if the above is a bit obvious to veteran PIs).

In the hope of re-igniting interest in this thread I offer a list of self liquidation situations which I have identified in order of premium to book value (NAV) so in theory in descending order of interest, ie ALF is top at a premium of 267% to tangible NAV and so on.

Have I omitted any companies? Should any not be in the list? Which companies represent the best self liquidation plays and why?

ALF267 OPP234 SPPC229 DCA205 TAU156 TCF116 TREE 115 DUPD101 TRC100 EEP99 SAPO80 GFIR63 ASPL61 SUH59 LEAF56 EIH55 LXB51 AGOL50 TJI47 LSR38 CDI31 EFR23 PACL22 JIL22 JPEL21 DNE14 APT13 DIL211 MUBL10 MTH7 NRI-4 PVCS-26 TRE-84

[petewy] 14/8/2017 22:10

Standard Life Plc (LON:SL) had its price target raised by analysts at Royal Bank Of Canada to £5.20 ($6.77). They now have an "outperform" rating on the stock.

raised by analysts at Macquarie £4.59 ($5.98). They now have an "outperform" rating on the stock.

price target raised by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to GBX £4.92 ($6.41). T

[cwa1] 14/8/2017 08:23

I've set up a temporary thread for discussion(SLA-obviously), I can't promise to keep it up to date however, so if anyone wants to set up a super dooper all bells and whistles thread-PLEASE go ahead, I certainly won't be offended!

[chinese investor] 14/8/2017 08:21

I'll do it !

[enami] 14/8/2017 08:17

Thanks CWA1 I did not know they would have a new EPIC code.

Orient are you going to make a new thread or any volunteers to do so?

[cwa1] 14/8/2017 08:08

SLA now in case anyone is looking for it!

[f1araway] 13/8/2017 09:09

grahamite2:"This has held on to its gains amazingly well" - for a FTSE100 company to lose 8% in a week IS amazing!

[enami] 11/8/2017 21:15

Chinese Investor the auction was all about the merger which will complete on Monday. I suspect tracker funds and institutions are rebalancing their portfolio holding based on the combined SL. and ADN valuation.

So for example a FTSE100 tracker may need to increase it's holding to account for the larger capitalisation of the combination. The closing auction volume at ADN was over 24 million, 10 times the daily average.


REF RNS 25 July 2017

Standard Life plc ("Standard Life")

Aberdeen Asset Management PLC ("Aberdeen")

Announcement of UK Regulatory Approval for Merger

Standard Life and Aberdeen are pleased to announce that the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority have confirmed their approval to enable the merger between the two groups to proceed.

The transaction remains subject to certain regulatory approvals in other jurisdictions and to final approval at a Court hearing scheduled for 11 August 2017. The merger is currently expected to complete on 14 August 2017.

[chinese investor] 11/8/2017 17:51

Bit Of A Shock !
What Was The Auction All About !

[grahamite2] 11/8/2017 16:00

This has held on to its gains amazingly well.

[chinese investor] 11/8/2017 12:49

Here We Go !

[cwa1] 11/8/2017 08:29

Morning


Bought back a few of the previously sold SL. at 420'ish as, fundamentally, I like it. Good yield to keep the wolf from the door whilst we await a recovery. Keeping back a bit of the cash to have some more if it falls a lot further. Good fortune to all here.

[grahamite2] 11/8/2017 08:18

Odd question but someone might know the answer. If you are enrolled for the dividend reinvestment scheme, will that just continue or will it need to be actively started again?

[f1araway] 10/8/2017 23:40

Well it's decision time.Do you sell first thing for the expected plunge a.m. or do so stay for the dividend which was wiped out today and will be even more so Friday?

[chinese investor] 10/8/2017 16:39

We are entering choppy waters.