Standard Chartered Share Discussion Threads

[kiwi2007] 28/1/2015 19:19

buy side:

Standard Chartered (STAN) has been clobbered by a raft of downgrades, most saying that higher impairment charges will force a dividend cut/rights issue; and the search for a new CEO is also reportedly underway. STAN is now priced for a disaster – which we believe STAN can avoid. We think the macro environment has changed in STAN’s favour – and an organisational de-cluttering to focus on core international banking could raise profitability, boost capital and drive a re-rating.

NPLs up on cheap oil – really? With the halving of oil prices since June 2014 now looking to be sustained through 2016, and with STAN’s exposure to oil-importing countries outweighing exposures to oil-exporters, we think that overall credit quality might actually improve, not deteriorate. And compared to the Eurozone, the outlook for Asian emerging markets is beginning to look attractive again.

n Shift in world trade dynamics calls for change in strategy. In the past two decades, global value chains have developed and matured; this has led to the somewhat paradoxical combination of slower, but more resilient, growth in world trade. As one of the few banks with a global payments infrastructure, STAN is well-positioned to offer international banking services to these interlinked value chains.

n De-clutter to boost profitability and capital. Many of STAN’s investment banking businesses are now reporting both higher income volatility and lower operating profitability. Our proposal: de-clutter and refocus as an international bank, offering the plain vanilla products that customers and regulators like. This should boost both profitability (because the infrastructure is already in place) and capital ratios (from disposal gains and RWA reductions).

n Priced for (an unlikely and avoidable) disaster. We believe that STAN’s valuation reflects expectations of higher impairment charges; a dividend cut/rights issue and much lower long-term profitability. All this is avoidable, in our view – if some of our proposals are implemented. And if the current management cannot do it, we would expect another bank might be tempted to do it for them. Maintain Buy.

[kiwi2007] 28/1/2015 19:18

Sell side:

Stressing the commodity finance exposure – For StanChart we estimate US$3.9bn stress test losses on the US$61bn commodity exposure. In addition we see the risk that the bank may have to top up currently weak NPL coverage ratios to a more comfortable level of 80%, which would cost US$2bn pre-tax in our view. Adding all the negatives together, one year of pre-tax profit (2015E) would get wiped out by assuming front end loaded losses.

 We maintained a Neutral recommendation on StanChart – Target Price £9.50 / HK$111.00. At least in the near term, we expect that StanChart will remain a negative newsflow story. That said, a lot of the negatives seem to be reflected in current valuation multiples but we think it is too early (ahead of full year results and 2015 outlook) to buy StanChart as a turnaround story.
 StanChart is in a difficult position due many structural issues such as the comparatively high cost base as a result of running too many sub-scale businesses in too many markets after a top-line growth-driven expansion over the past 10 years, we believe. The new regulatory environment puts a big question mark over the viability of sub-scale multinational banking businesses, in our view. So far, StanChart has reacted very slowly to these challenges but we believe restructuring momentum may improve in the future.
 StanChart will have the choice between more aggressive restructuring or accepting structurally single-digit profitability levels, we think. The US$400m cost savings announced in 2014 are not deep enough in our view.

[smurfy2001] 28/1/2015 19:09

Commodities collapse could wipe out entire year's profits at Standard Chartered

[smurfy2001] 28/1/2015 12:37

New lows coming imho.

[smartypants] 28/1/2015 10:37

Bit of a dramatic fall here today and only looks to be going in one direction ?

[kiwi2007] 26/1/2015 21:12

PM
hey, standard chartered
PM
Guess we need to put our/my AVOID recommendation under review
PM
Now that it seems Sands really is on his way out
PM

PM
But I’m in two minds
PM
Will this be a smooth transition, with no sudden re-evaluation of the loan book?
PM
Or will it happen like Tesco?
PM
Dunno
PM
Guess we just remain “cautious”
Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LSE): Last: 939.20, down 11.9 (-1.25%), High: 947.20, Low: 929.30, Volume: 2.94m
BE
Hm. Would tend to agree. StanChart’s problems aren’t leadership, even if they’re largely a result of leadership.

[jeffcranbounre] 26/1/2015 19:10

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[jeffcranbounre] 16/1/2015 19:35

Standard Chartered is featured on today's ADVFN podcast.

To listen to the podcast click here>

In today's podcast:

- Technical Analyst and PR at Materinvestor.co.uk Zak Mir chatting and charting Quindell and it’s good news if you’re Quindell investor, Nanoco, Afren, Blur and should you invest in BP or Royal Dutch Shell?

Zak on Twitter is @ZaksTradingCafe

- And the micro and macro news including:

Quindell #QPP
Afren #AFR
Royal Bank of Scotland #RBS
Blur #BLUR
Nanoco #NANO
BP #BP.
Royal Dutch Shell #RDSB
Moneysupermarket.com #MONY
GlaxoSmithKline #GSK
Synthomer #SYNT
JD Sports #JD.
HSBC #HSBA
Google #GOOG
Standard Chartered #STAN
Vedanta Resources #VED
MyCelx Technologies #MYXR
IG Group #IGG
Shire #SHP
AstraZeneca #AZN
Smith (DS) #SMIN
Dignity #DTY
Tristel #TSTL
Lancashire #LRE
Wolseley #WOS
Robert Walters #RWA

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[kiwi2007] 15/1/2015 09:56

UBS "..A review of Standard’s capital dynamics leads us to forecast a c.50% dividend cut from 2015..."

Morgan Stanley "... we are below consensus for divis for STAN (we forecast a cut)..."

I suspect the company, or someone in the company,is giving analysts the wink.

[kaffee] 15/1/2015 08:19

Where are you getting that from?

[kiwi2007] 14/1/2015 21:10

Housebroker UBS suspects a 50% cut in divi...

Buy on Sands sacking IMO.

[jeffcranbounre] 13/1/2015 16:21

Standard Chartered is featured in today's ADVFN podcast.

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In today's podcast:

- Alan Green CEO of TradersOwn.co.uk will be chatting about Quinell, Tesco and Entertainment One. Alan on Twitter is @TradersOwn

- And the micro and macro news including:

Quindell #QPP
Tesco #TSCO
Entertainment One #ETO
Afren #AFR
Greggs #GRG
ASOS #ASC
Pace #PIC
SIG #SHI
Debenhams #DEB
Meggitt #MGGT
Michael Page #MPI
Spire Healthcare Group
Morrison #MRW
Standard Chartered #STAN
Ashmore Group #ASHM
Big Yellow Group #BYG
UK Mail Group #UKM
Carr's Milling Industries #CRM
Antofagasta #ANTO
Debenhams #DEB
Cineworld Group #CINE
Kazakhmys #KAZ

Every Tuesday is Ten Bagger Tuesday on the podcast. If you know of a stock, whose share price has the potential to increase ten fold, just click the link below.



(All it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast).

Once a week, on a Friday, I feature a tip from a listener to this podcast, if you'd like to suggest a stock click the link below:



(Again all it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast).

You can subscribe to this podcast in iTunes by clicking

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As a listener to the ADVFN podcast you can take advantage of some exclusive first year discounts on popular subscriptions:

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Silver - £145 (normally £173.71/year)
Level 2 - £350 (normally £472.94/year)

Call 0207 0700 961 and ask for the ADVFN Podcast discount to take advantage of these reduced rates or just for more information.

Please DO NOT buy any stock recommended in this podcast basely solely on what you hear. The opinions in this podcasts are just that, opinions. Please do you own research before investing.

Justin

 

 

[montyhedge] 13/1/2015 07:19

Best short in the FTSE, commodities loans turning sour.

[jeffcranbounre] 08/1/2015 15:31

Standard Chartered is featured in today's ADVFN podcast

To listen click here>

In today's podcast:

- City Investor and financial write Chris Oil will be chatting about a small cap oil stock that city analysts reckon could be a ten bagger. Chris on Twitter is @ChrisOil

- And the micro and macro news including:

Tesco #TSCO
Quindell #QPP
Ted Baker #TED
Standard Chartered #STAN
Spirent Communications #SPT
Howden Joinery #HWDN
Marks and Spencer #MKS
CRH #CRH
Hays #HAS
Talk Talk #TALK
British Land #BLND
Grafton #GFTU
Dunelm Group #DNLM
Samsung
SQS Software #SQS
Renishaw #RSW
Zoopla #ZPLA
Boohoo.com #BOO
Foxtons Group #FOXT

Every Tuesday is Ten Bagger Tuesday on the podcast. If you know of a stock, whose share price has the potential to increase ten fold, just click the link below.



(All it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast).

Once a week, on a Friday, I feature a tip from a listener to this podcast, if you'd like to suggest a stock click the link below:



(Again all it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast).

You can subscribe to this podcast in iTunes by clicking

To follow me on Twitter click

As a listener to the ADVFN podcast you can take advantage of some exclusive first year discounts on popular subscriptions:

Bronze - £50 (normally £73.82/year)
Silver - £145 (normally £173.71/year)
Level 2 - £350 (normally £472.94/year)

Call 0207 0700 961 and ask for the ADVFN Podcast discount to take advantage of these reduced rates or just for more information.

Please DO NOT buy any stock recommended in this podcast basely solely on what you hear. The opinions in this podcasts are just that, opinions. Please do you own research before investing.

Justin

 

 

[kiwi2007] 08/1/2015 09:35

Sands getting stuck in - 4,500 jobs gone.

[jonntara] 06/1/2015 21:50

I bought some previously at around 1200 too and I'm not worried either. Emerging markets will have their day again in the next few years and I think today's prices will look good then.

[lomcovaks] 06/1/2015 19:24

Good thinking JonN,

I bought a thousand at 1205p but not too worried as I had a 20yr + horizon. Will tuck another thousand away when this year's ISA allowance comes round and then just sit there and forget about them.

Best way to invest.

[jonntara] 06/1/2015 16:37

Picked up a couple of hundred shares today. I think at these prices it's worth a small punt.Plus when I see Monty and hvs predicting doom and gloom it's normally a good time to get in as long as you don't mind a few dips on the way.Only joking. Good luck by the way guys and I hope you win short term whilst I win in the long term.

[smurfy2001] 02/1/2015 14:02

Hey Monty, i'm still waiting for a cheaper price here before l buy.

[montyhedge] 02/1/2015 13:53

Oh dear, default from a property developer, the dominoes are about to tumble, hong Kong and China property sector.

[hvs] 15/12/2014 20:08

£ 6.00

[hvs] 11/12/2014 10:01

Looks like Sands is having difficulty breathing.

[hvs] 11/12/2014 10:01

Looks like Sands is having difficulty breathing.