St.modwen Properties Share Discussion Threads

[peaeff] 14/3/2016 15:17

I notice a few diectors managed to top up at low prices.

[broadwood] 14/3/2016 11:01

Liberum Capital St Modwen Properties PLC 14/03/2016
Upgrades
Hold Buy
2
415.00 415.00 297.10
0

2

[ed 123] 08/3/2016 12:42

Non-exec. director, Richard Mully, continues his buying, adding 10,000 shares at 300p yesterday.

Price atm is 286p.

On this last batch, he's down nearly 4.6% so far today. He's down even more on the others, of course.

Credit to him; he thinks they're cheap and he's buying.

[its the oxman] 08/3/2016 09:14

Next major support looks to be 200p to me but struggle to believe it will fall that far. Next results newsflow could stem the tide but see no reason to buy before, especially since we have slipped through 300p, despite some long term value possibly.

[creative_accountant] 07/3/2016 20:31

Simply because profit isn't cash flow- they don't have the money to pay big dividends!

Most of the large profit is an unreleased profit on a revaluations and thus it won't become cash until it is sold and realized! Until then, and the cash flow improves here, dividends will continue to be very, very weak!

[webclick99] 07/3/2016 17:40

Paltry! lol

[jeffian] 07/3/2016 16:13

lazygun,

See #512 et seq.

"a poultry 1.9%". Chickenfeed, eh?!

8-)

[lazygun] 07/3/2016 16:04

What surprises me is that you have profit of nearly a pound per share, and yet the dividend is a poultry 1.9% of the current share price.....


If they're making that much profit, why isn't more if that being distributed back to shareholders?

L.

[ed 123] 07/3/2016 12:27

Morgan Stanley joined the chorus last week.

The warning from Morgan Stanley adds to concerns over a glut of homes in areas like Nine Elms,...



Of course, such chatter doesn't mean that prices are certain to fall by 20%. Also SMP's share price is about 40% down from its August 2015 high. Is that enough of a fall for now, while the market awaits further price/sales data?

Will today's buyers at c. 305p be laughing in 12 months time?

[ed 123] 04/3/2016 18:36

Isn't the falling share price a response to rising doubt about the financial success of VSM's redevelopment of Covent Garden Market?

The agreement with Covent Garden Market Authority was signed in January 2013. From what I can see, house prices in the area may have peaked at the end of 2014.



Press reports, such as this, will have hit confidence.

Speculative investors head for the exit in Nine Elms development



I haven't read the agreement between VSM and CGMA but, if it is structured so that VSM pay for the Market redevelopment, then there is higher risk carried by VSM because the sale price per property will have to cover land cost, build cost, finance cost and a per property share of the cost of the Market rebuild. If this is the case, then projections for achievable property prices are more critical than for a normal (ie. site clear and then build flats) redevelopment.

I should state that I'm not trying spook anyone. Just sharing my own thoughts on why the share price might be falling.

I'm neither long nor short St Modwen, and wish holders a good outcome.

Edit: Perhaps I need to add a little balance. St Modwen are very experienced developers and will have put massive effort into planning and pricing this big project, including projecting outcomes if softer end markets should hit. I suppose the question is, "Have they been sufficiently cautious?" I doubt that private investors are in a position to answer this.

[redartbmud] 04/3/2016 14:45

I just don't see a problem with financing. They would have put it all in place before they started.

[its the oxman] 04/3/2016 10:20

Perhaps there is concern over financing London project work and fund raising. Waiting to see sub 300p as it looks very possible.

[droid] 03/3/2016 11:53

Just wonder if there are concerns here re management succession.

[its the oxman] 03/3/2016 10:40

Why so weak here when land and Blnd are recovering?

[droid] 26/2/2016 10:29

I think by london he is actually referring to Nine Elms which looks a problem area.

[deadly] 26/2/2016 09:32

"Has anyone stress-tested SMP? What would be the value of the equity if London property prices fell by 20%?"

That isn't a relevant question. Why haven't BKG etc. also fallen like SMP? BKG has in fact recovered strongly. London house prices falling is only a dream when the pound has fallen and the economy is growing well.

[solomon] 19/2/2016 17:07

divi increased 25%. Did they listen to us? Or has this been announced before?

[spacecake] 10/2/2016 19:39

Momentum moves in both directions !

[ed 123] 09/2/2016 11:55

Has anyone stress-tested SMP? What would be the value of the equity if London property prices fell by 20%?

[bluerunner] 09/2/2016 11:36

There has to be some considerable value at these kind of levels. My average price is a lot higher and will be taking advantage as soon as I have more cash available. The downward drift has been disappointing but I'm holding long term. Any thoughts?

[webclick99] 05/2/2016 16:58

Volume today not excessive. Level 2 from what I can see seems to show a reasonable balance between buys and sells.

As an investor though, I'm lacking guidance and future financial forecasts. I couldn't find any in their annual results. People want to buy on the future, not the past. Where is the future financial guidance? If anyone has any, pls share

[ed 123] 05/2/2016 15:50

The market is pricing in more Covent Garden risk, imo.

[bostonborn] 05/2/2016 15:36

Large fall so far today. Any body know any particular reason why? Is it just normal trading going on? Thanks for any reply.

[eggbaconandbubble] 04/2/2016 06:12

This bb sometimes goes a month without a single comment/post and now you are baulking at a healthy discussion!