St. James's Place Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 13/12/2007 18:31

I'll be adding too but not today and maybe not tomorrow will see how the next couple of trading days pan out. It would still be cheap at 320 in a rising market after all.

[ntv] 13/12/2007 17:01

bought a few in auction
for better or worse

[hectorp] 13/12/2007 16:09

Panmuir Price target 470p based on 1.5X value. current price 302p.

[hectorp] 13/12/2007 13:47

From Q3 results:

"Despite uncertain market conditions and a tough new business comparative for
the final quarter of the year, the strong third quarter performance reinforces
our expectation (subject to no major change in circumstances) that new business
growth for the year will be at the top end of our longer term objective of
15-20% growth per annum."

- Looks good for the last quarter, but the market is still very volatile. This is a buy on weakness stock par excellence.

[hectorp] 12/12/2007 11:05

I've not started buying STJ yet for my trading account, only the SIPP.
This will prove a 2-day fall at most and then off we go again , IMO.

[hectorp] 11/12/2007 11:57

agree james .
Resistance even based on the downward trend is still over 370p.
I also believe this trading pattern shows the signs of the demanding buyer, impatient for our shares, hence these attractive AM markups.

[jamesgkenny] 11/12/2007 11:48

hectorp good timing, went down with the banks but hasnt come back yet, plenty upside left to £4

income stream dependent to a large extent on broad market valuations but in a downturn more gets invested, hence on recovery income higher

[hectorp] 11/12/2007 10:16

Forward P/E of 6... divi covered over 5 X..

[hectorp] 11/12/2007 09:24

Added a batch of CFD's half an hour ago - which wa not too bad an indea.

[hectorp] 11/12/2007 08:20

Breakout really occured yesterday, after completion of reverse head and shoulders on the chart.

[hectorp] 10/12/2007 11:11

I sold ( from last year) around April, and have come back in today.
Good luck to all
H.

[jamesgkenny] 06/12/2007 13:01

Extract from UBS buy note

* Shares have fallen over 40%:
* St James's Place's shares have fallen 44% from their peak as the
market has moved to factor in the potential impact of an economic
downturn. The shares are now trading at levels only briefly seen
during the last downturn and offer attractive upside potential, in our
opinion, on anything other than a broad based correction.

* Substantial growth in FUM:
* The last downturn saw geared reductions in the value of new business
and cash flow issues. However, FUM are nearly 3x higher than then,
providing a substantial under-pin to revenues.

* Strong trading in the year to date:
* Sales were 28% ahead in the first nine months and 20% in Q3.
Virtually all the company's business is unitised where policyholders
take the investment risk. We have reduced 2008/9 earnings by c12% to
allow for lower sales and FUM than previously anticipated.

* Trading at 1.1x 07E AdjNAV; upgrade to Buy
* We have reduced our SOTP from 448p to 391p to reflect a tougher
trading environment. Our new price target of 330p is set at a c15%
discount to reflect the risks of buying at this stage of a potential
downturn. With the shares already on a 'trough' rating we see long
term value, with significant upside on more bullish expectations for
the UK economy. We upgrade our rating to Buy.

[tourist07] 21/11/2007 17:07

OK, well I managed to resist adding to my position until now .... so is it the moment? I think the fall is in part due to the fact that STJ get less trailing commission when their clients portfolios tank - which is fair enough. I'm feeling like I have bought a proxy for the market at the moment ... hmmm.

[ntv] 20/11/2007 09:41

the destroyer fund says dmfd

[yogibear123] 19/11/2007 16:01

Next stop 250 then?

We'll see shortly.

Yogi x

[yogibear123] 16/11/2007 16:31

Dead Cat Bounce?

300 is a key area. It needs to hold.

Below 290 and next stop is 250.

Yogi x

[nurdin] 13/11/2007 13:00

Just received the latest Panmure Gordon note from Andrew Croft...the Group FD.

Panmure have a price target of 470p and comment that based on their 2007 forecasts SJP are trading on just 1.5x Embedded Value plus a mere 6x new business multiple...an unwarranted level at 388p,the price on the date of the note.

[yogibear123] 13/11/2007 10:45

I agree.

I wonder how much of this relief rally in the banks is short covering, averaging down and dip buying rather than people coming seriously back to the market....

SJP is a solid business and I am a client of theirs. Their service is exceptional, absolutely second to none, astonishingly good.

I will come back to SJP as an investment at some point but not quite yet.

Yogi x

[nurdin] 13/11/2007 10:06

Whichever metric you use there is no getting away from the fact there is an excellent growth story here and Wealth Management services will be even more in demand in these times of uncertainty.Fowrad PE of 6 looks incredibly mean given their robust balance sheet and cashflow.

I have therefore dipped my toe today

[tourist07] 12/11/2007 19:27

Thanks James, really reassuring.

I spent some of the weekendn going through SJP's recent Accounts and Analysts Presentations. I was impressed with the ongoing growth story and I suspect they will finish the year just above their revenue growth target of 15-20%. Although the 4th Q has a tough comparative, they were cumulatively 28% up on the 9mths to date.

As we progress down the income statement, however, there are a lot of items swinging quite significantly from year to year such that it is quite difficult to get any sense of whether they are on target for Profit Growth at similarly impressive levels.

I am not a Pensions or Actuarial expert, however I am a Chartered Accountant yet I find their Financial Statements to be utterley opaque. I understand IFRS - but IFRS shows no profit growth at all from 1st Half 06 to 1st Half 07, despite significant revenue growth. The company's preferred method of reportinig (Economic Embedded Value - whatever that is) however, shows profits doubling. No wonder they prefer it, lol.

In addition, its very hard to understand their tax accounting and there seem to be violent swings in the tax charge from year to year.

Is there a mug's guide to their business model and financial statements anywhere, or should I try Investor Relations?

[jamesgkenny] 12/11/2007 11:28

This was released last thursday to staff



From: David C Bellamy
To: SJP Global
Sent: Thu Nov 08 15:54:40 2007
Subject: SJP Share Price

Ladies and Gentlemen



The last few days have seen some fairly sharp falls in our share price and I thought you might appreciate some background to them.



The first point I'd like to make is that as a business we are in great shape. You'll have seen the 3rd Quarter results last week (which momentarily drove the share price over £4.00!) and you'll know that on just about every measure we're doing incredibly well.



All of the analysts who follow our stock have us on a 'buy' or 'hold' – no one has us as a 'sell'.



Nevertheless few investors today have the appetite for investing money in the Financial Sector and when someone does want to sell our shares, regardless of the volume, there are currently not enough buyers to make the deal - hence the falling share price.



Whilst our shares have fallen more than the Life Assurance Sector in the last few months it's not because we are in a worse position. As we make the journey from Life Assurance to Wealth Management we can be compared (at different times) to the Life Assurance Sector, the Asset Management Groups and in some cases the specialist Asset Managers.



Yesterday's fall in the share price was summed up pretty well in the F.T.



"Lower down the market, asset management companies came under pressure unsettled by a bearish note from Oriel Securities "The current environment of a frozen credit market, volatile and potentially weakening equity market, a weak dollar, inflationary pressure and slowing housing market means contracting margins, slower flows and higher arrears for many companies in the financial services industry.' These comments hit New Star Asset Management down 7.4%, Rathbones Brothers down 9.1% and St. James's Place down 7.6%. In the same sector Hargreaves Lansdown lost 5.7%.



So yesterday we were seen in the Asset Management sector. A couple of weeks ago when the CGT changes were announced in the Pre-Budget Statement we were linked with the Life Assurers.



We have little control over these 'external' issues. Whilst we don't share some commentators' views of the market the current conditions in the Financial Sector are challenging and may not settle in the short term.



Nevertheless, as I said at the start, we are in great shape, the need for advice is as strong if not stronger than ever and we are very confident about the future.



Right now we are continuing to build on an excellent year to date and I wish you well with your personal goals and targets for the remainder of the year.



Kind regards



David



David Bellamy

Chief Executive

St. James's Place plc

DDI : 01285 878005

Fax: [phone]



Way way oversold, great business model...could be a target at these levels from Old Mutual

[yogibear123] 09/11/2007 11:41

No

Yogi x

[yogibear123] 09/11/2007 10:31

There is the bounce between 300-310.

Will it hold?

Yogi x

[yogibear123] 08/11/2007 22:28

Don't know Tourist07. Wish i did.

I sold a bunch of shares including all my SJP in July for 400p+ to buy an engagement ring for my misses! Really felt I was missing out and 500p was just a matter of time...how things change.

As far as I know they are taking on new client partners and have been writing record amounts of new business. Each set of updates and results have exceeded expectations etc...

The volume doesn't look out of the ordinary, so, I know it is basic but there must just be consistently more selling than buying. Either a big holder(s) unwinding a position or buyers are on strike. Or both. Sentiment on the banking sector means that Banks with little or no exposure to dodgy debt are being hit disproportionately.

Problem is that looking at the chart no-one will want to take a position until the freefall stops. I think SJP is a great investment, but at the moment no-one agrees!

Will keep my powder dry for a while longer.

Could be a great recovery play....but when?

Yogi x