Sivota Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 08/3/2017 07:39

Page recruitment today noted several areas around the globe where things have slowed. There was a particular mention for a sharp fall in UK marketing recruitment revenues. Again, this suggests SIV's problems might be more down to the sector leading the economic cycle down rather than management specifics. This raises hopes of recovery again in time.

[aleman] 07/3/2017 16:23

Operating cashflow is down 33%. It's not been wiped out. They have announced cost cutting measures which could increase that again and the dividend reduction will cover a big part of the reduction, too. If things don't deteriorate further, they might even have more residual cash to strengthen the balance sheet than last year. On the other hand, I think the whole economy is slowing so there could be ongoing headwinds. The discounted valuation to cashflow at the current price seems to make some allowance for further bad news. The shares are already quite cheap on current numbers but a slowing economy may end up justifying that. The company seems to be generating enough cash to meet its needs for now , though, including the reduced dividend.

[smithless] 07/3/2017 15:53

Agree should not pay dividend, especially when it states it needs to strengthen its balance sheet, which can only mean one thing, a rights issues at some point. Looks cheap but needs financial support and it is at the mercy of those who can give it IMHO

[she-ra] 07/3/2017 13:13

Dividend should have been axed. Silly.

[aleman] 07/3/2017 07:54

Could have been worse. Dividend rebased rather than axed. Debt down and pension deficit improved. Operating cashflow before working capital movements is down 33% so not the end of the world. Results from Omnicom, WPP and others suggest a slower year and a sharp deceleration in Q4. Advertisers and marketers are often at the front of the economic cycle so it looks like the start of an economic slowdown rather than being SIV specific. If that is the case, we can hope for a recovery in 18 months, althoogh it might get worse first. Beware blaming the management if they are operating in a cyclically slowing sector - not that I am saying they are blameless, just that some others are struggling..

[woody888] 07/3/2017 07:47

Revenue - up

[waveneygnome] 07/3/2017 07:33

Bit of a down day.

Dividend - down
Debt - down
Pension Deficit - down
Write - down

[aleman] 03/3/2017 10:20

It looks like the Marketing Activation's problems might not be just down to management. The US and UK are slowing according to WPP. Whilst this is not good news, it does raise the hope that Marketing Activation might recover again after the slowdown/recession.

WPP reported its slowest quarter of revenue growth since 2012 as clients spent less in the U.S. and U.K.

The world's largest advertising company also forecast slower growth for 2017, reflecting fewer new business wins in recent months and what it describes as a "tepid" macroeconomic environment.

[diku] 02/3/2017 10:01

Master RSI...your chart were a buy at 70p...now again a buy & it goes down!!..

[edmundshaw] 22/2/2017 14:34

Well to say there is NO value in this company is quite a strong verdict. The intangible assets certainly have value, and the remaining Books and the Strategic Marketing segments seem to be doing OK. So we have to try to estimate the damage from the disappointing performance of Marketing Activation segment (said to be due in large part to the ongoing pressures within the grocery retail sector) and the loss of the Harper Collins contract. They are of course looking to address the former by looking for new clients outside grocery retail .

The latter is easy enough as they have given us numbers, and the former we can estimate from the phrase "the out-turn for the full financial year will be materially below its previous expectations with the majority of the shortfall due to the pressures within the Marketing Activation segment". Material is >10% and the book contract loss is not far off the same number, so we get a drop in profit of perhaps 25-30%, a fair amount of which looks permanent, but some of it potentially recoverable.

Translate this to earnings per share and I am still seeing north of 12p underlying EPS, which does make a share price of 53p remarkably cheap unless you expect that a LOT worse is to come.

[cjohn] 21/2/2017 10:36

Hi Bookbroker, I agree with your remarks. Well done on exiting. There is no value in this company: negative tangible equity and ballooning debt. The various marketing ventures are worth a fraction of the ridiculous sums paid. A blind plunge into the digital has wrecked another decent company.

The only part of value is the printing división.

[master rsi] 20/2/2017 11:50

From the "UPS" thread.........

Master RSI 20 Feb '17 - 10:36 - 449 of 449
KEEP an EYE
SIV 55p +1.25p

Is the stock ready to bounce back?
Last Friday Pause on the falling and today bounce could be the start of recovery from the recent large fall after profit warnings and lost of contracts
One has to go back 7 years to see the same price

[bookbroker] 16/2/2017 10:54

This co. will require some sort of fundraising, the way the share is falling suggests a covenant issue may become apparent!

[mattab] 15/2/2017 12:04

Perhaps the market is expecting a RI to secure the business?

SP behaviour perhaps leans itself to that?

Looks historically cheap but perhaps set to become cheaper?

Don't hold but on Watchlist.

Keeps dropping where is the next support?

Wish I had the inside track lol.

[diku] 11/2/2017 19:49

If you liked it above 70p to flip then how about the current price of 60p to flip?...

[bookbroker] 10/2/2017 21:31

Diku - I made a purely speculative punt on the basis of a flip, Armitage has made a dog's dinner of this co., maybe not his fault, but I do not like the balance sheet here one bit, never did, mistake!

[pugugly] 10/2/2017 20:08

diku:> if there was such a bid suggest urgently consider shorting the bidder !!

[diku] 10/2/2017 18:53

Bet if the price had gone up when you bought in the seventies you would not be talking so negatively...you just had a narrow escape so now over talk the negativity...our minds work in a mysterious ways when it comes to money...now if there was bid at 100p Monday morning or next week would that make you feel good?...

[bookbroker] 10/2/2017 18:36

I'm afraid I put a target around the 20p mark, the acquisitions have been a disaster, it seems half of them seem to perform similar roles to one another, there will be a massive write off of acquired assets, could be looking at a hundred million loss, and Clays which was the most solid part of the business is now feeling margin pressure!

[diku] 10/2/2017 18:33

Why not?...remove competition...

[diku] 10/2/2017 15:58

This is a takeover target...

[diku] 09/2/2017 18:24

To keep insiders lifestyle intact RI coming...

[bookbroker] 09/2/2017 17:50

It may be beyond all that, sounds like demand for many of their services is muted at best, cut the dividend, raise capital to pay down the debt, basically secure the business!

[diku] 09/2/2017 15:51

Employ new insiders...