Sse Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 02/9/2021 13:32

Mark - renewables in themselves aren't a problem, it's intermittency that is. There's dispatchable renewable technologies like hydro (and even pumped storage) which are renewable, and they are god's gift to the grid.

But solar and wind are intermitent and therein lies the problem. It's windmills which are forcing electricity prices higher and higher, they are terribly inefficient because the intermittency has to be corrected. There's £1bn pa spent on the capacity market, purely as a measure to handle the intermittency. Then there is extra primary reserve - a massively expensive insurance - to help handle the real time intermittency. And after all those measure, the chance of powercuts rises. You'll soon see power rationing at peak times - early winter evenings. Charging evs at that time will soon be stopped.

Don't believe the price you see for wind generation. They are very crude numbers - you have to add on the cost to the grid of handling that wind power to get something compatible to gas or nukes, and that makes wind much more expensive. That's the reason bills are rising when many people think wind power is cheap!

Look at the mess Germany is in with it's high penetration of intermittent power. We are simply following the very same mistakes they made (and germany is building new coal powerstations atm, to stop their grid collapsing completely).

Not really sse related - the massive subsidies for wind wont disappear for many years (unfortunately) - but when they do, don't expect any wind generation at all).

[marktime1231] 02/9/2021 11:56

Well done everyone who elected to scrip the dividend at 1475p, a splendid bargain while the share price is 1650p+. Also good for SSE, all that extra cash it doesn't need to spend on dividends available for more renewables development. And just a 2% or so dilution of shares is not going to hurt too much.

[marktime1231] 01/9/2021 20:29

Not sure I am a fan of the aesthetic of onshore wind turbines or the pylons which connect them to grid, haven't seen the impact in Scotland but the ones in Portugal spoil the countryside from a distance and close up. Call me Cervantes but I think they are a necessary evil rather than an attraction, I would hate to live in the shadow of one. If we could move them all offshore completely out of sight the cost of grid connection would be money well spent.

Wind is frustratingly intermittent, on average we only get about 30% of rated capacity from them. Expecting wind to replace gas fired power stations and meet demand for EV charging and drive electrolysers is all a huge ask. Energy prices are shooting up so fast we might not need a subsidy for renewables. The cost of new nuclear might even become affordable.

SSE is manoeuvering itself into a great place, needs to find its next big development to invest in as well as smaller schemes, and needs to get as far away as possible from regulatory strictures.

[pierre oreilly] 31/8/2021 17:51

Wad, in a free market, the intermittent power from windmills is worth absolutely zilch when fed into a power matching grid.

It's only the subsidies you and i pay which make windmills profitable.

In addition to that, offshore windmills (and the proposed onshore) are outside the footprint of the current grid. Whereas powerlines inside that footprint can divvi out the generation, those outside it have to have a dedicated powerline - a very expensive resource which will have a very low resource useage.

The subsidies make this sensible for sse to proceed, but without them, they make no sense whatsoever (due to the two fators above). Plenty of money in it for sse, but some very poor electricity customers pay more than they need to in bills because of it (and all other windmills).

[wad collector] 31/8/2021 17:38

If you look at the plans , it merely extends the existing one so hardly affecting the existing view. Renewable power production will eventually trump all other claims including the aesthetic , but there is a reluctance of us to accept that . Yet.
Personally , and I have a large wind turbine within 400m of my house (And the nearest dwelling to this one is 2.4km away), I think the structures are elegant and a form of art.

[marktime1231] 31/8/2021 12:32

A bit harsh wad, it is not quite as remote as that, and the windfarm would spoil its only asset which is the very desolation you mention. That's the objection to wind farm plans for Lewis, you spoil the barren. Besides, in mid Scotland the vibrations might disturb Nessie!

How about St Kilda or Anthrax Island or Rockall?

There is a lobby in favour of floating wind farms which sounds like a recipe for a disaster but it has been done already off Peterhead. We have tethered floating oil rigs so why not? And, you can tug them to a new spot.

[wad collector] 31/8/2021 12:05

Looking into those plans in more detail it is hard to imagine a stronger case for an Onshore Windfarm. The site is about as desolate as the UK gets where almost no-one lives or visits , the existing windfarm means that the objections are quantitative not qualitative, half the infrastructure is already there and the Governmental support for the modality makes a strong case. If this doesn't get planning permission no onshore sites will.

[macromike] 23/8/2021 10:52

SSE putting the recent cash to good use, this time expanding the Bhlaraidh wind farm in the Scottish Highlands:



SSE seeks nod to expand Scottish wind complex to over 200 MW

[marktime1231] 22/8/2021 22:09

So what is the way to play this if the share price does keep rising on "no news"?

Put a conservative stop loss under the slice of your holding which you are happy to trim, and keep stepping up the threshold as the price trades higher?

Or buy some extra now and sell it when momentum starts to fade? Just how far could this go, how much value might there be in its developments like the Dogger Bank wind farms?

Or trim off the extra chunk you already bought before ex-div, say once it hits a target gain of 3 x the dividend. Oh, no, already there. Nice problem.

[bountyhunter] 21/8/2021 23:22

I agree, a new high looks likely sooner rather than later.

[jrphoenixw2] 21/8/2021 21:51

...There seems to be a potential break-out to a new high brewing. See the chart above and per my notes the spike illustrated in Feb-2020 was a COB on 19th Feb with a COB of 1686.5p. That was the highest since circa mid-2015.

I just noticed we're a mere 20p below that.

[wad collector] 20/8/2021 18:26

Tipped in IC today in their article on how to profit from the infrastructure big spend.

[wad collector] 20/8/2021 08:41

I think I am wrong about the p/e, I was believing the advfn data on the bottom link ; I think the displayed profit figure is distorted.

[marktime1231] 19/8/2021 15:40

Don't think SSE is being ramped, reappraised perhaps, but unless something changes radically it is looking expensive on the basis that cash flow from operating income needs to be supplemented by asset trading in order to cover the dividend. I make it on a p/e over 18 now or have I missed something. Certainly in demand, and on a day when not much else is, so I can see it approaching 1700 on speculation.

[wad collector] 19/8/2021 14:40

I wouldn't think ramping would have any effect here or any other large company , the institutional investors won't take any notice of them.
I am not sure that a yield of 4.9% and a p/E of 7.5 would label this as expensive . I have traded them in and out fair few times over the decades but not thinking of even top-slicing here. The Green spin here with a massive National need to increase the electrical supply and distribution makes this a solid hold in my book, whatever the Elliot outcome is.

[marktime1231] 19/8/2021 12:02

Very true wad. So much so that it is a truism, a self-fulfilling observation that winners win and losers lose you money. You don't know at the time of course that a winner is going to keep being a winner or that a loser is going to keep losing. Only with the benefit of hindsight. Most of us have stocks which lost heavily last year, eg SSE so it was very brave/stupid of those who bought some more under 1200p last September when SSE was arguably a confirmed loser something we should be sold out of?

Selling a winner which still has further to go is something we are all guilty of, I know I do it all the time. Selling does realise your gain though. One way to manage this is to adjust your holding in stages ... don't sell down all in one go, keep a core holding and work to improve your price average over time. (My average is around 1300p thanks to that stupdity last year).

What is also true is that bulls who are heavily invested in rocket stocks and keep ramping them higher have their purposes served by those who hold rather than take profits. So you need to make your own mind up. If you get lucky / call it right more than half the time was it judgement or luck or circumstances?

At the moment SSE is looking expensive on the hard numbers and is only up here on a rumour and the plausible idea that it is a hidden growth story because it is creating extra value by developing renewables from an early stage. Does it have the legs to climb up through the 1700s as one bull has predicted? And beyond? Or would it be more sensible to take the gains approaching 1700p at an all time high? I know which mistake I am going to make already. With some of my holding.

[skinny] 19/8/2021 11:15

SSE Acquires First Battery Project

[wad collector] 17/8/2021 14:40

There was a piece in IC last week pointing out that if you follow the outcome of selling your winners and holding your losers, then , on average you do worse as a PI than holding your winners and selling your losers.
We sell our winners too early and hold our losers too long. I am guilty on both charges and am trying not to see the strength in my Utility holdings as a reason to sell.

[bountyhunter] 16/8/2021 19:22

Those two have done well.

[gilesy911] 16/8/2021 18:27

Severn TrentUnited Utilities

[bountyhunter] 15/8/2021 15:24

What are they?
SSE's short term future may depend on Elliott so is difficult to predict.

[gilesy911] 15/8/2021 15:10

Thinking of investing here, is now the time, all my holdings elsewhere are near ATH's?? Thanks in advance