Srt Marine Systems Investors - SRT

Srt Marine Systems Investors - SRT

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type
Srt Marine Systems Plc SRT London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
1.50 3.9% 40.00 14:03:23
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
39.00 38.75 41.75 40.00 38.50
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Industry Sector

Top Investor Posts

barrieb: I see our 50k buyer is continuing the accumulation of quite a considerable holding. They are doing it very patiently with the market ignoring the astute purchases in amongst the negativity of this waiting game. They are taking advantage of any negativity, either market sentiment or weak holders running out of confidence or patience. It seems to me that this is just too regular (almost daily & sometimes twice or three times if the opportunity presents itself) to be anything other than an individual / ii or a very small core of investors quietly going about their business while the opportunity presents itself. For those without L2 who will probably not see this going on in the clever way it is, this in my opinion is a fairly clear indication that they are very confident of a positive outcome here and that an element of further patience is required. They may have more information than we are aware of and their level of confidence must be far higher than many to keep pumping £15k-£20k into the shares at every opportunity. No comments on further patience please as we have heard them all before!! This is the second time I have posted about this (last post 4th June) so this has been going on for over two months, probably three and we all know what WB. says about 'going shopping when the sales are on' and being 'greedy when others are fearful'. Well folks this in my opinion is happening right now to our SRT! All in my opinion folks but probably not far off the mark.
alter ego: No but you can always sell up if you are unhappy with your investment like the rest of us. No one forces anyone to remain invested except the investor.
lavalmy: I don't think any of us would have been at a debt investors' presentation.
lavalmy: Just a guess but some of the recent enthusiasm may have come from the repayment of the loan note. It is hard to see if it was rolled over as yet. Investors who were repaid will be happy about the company's cash position or if it was rolled over some sort of positive presentation might have been required.
goodapple7: Any mention in Investors Chronicle?
lavalmy: 'Robust financial management means the business is in a good cash position' is more what you say when banging the drum than passing the tin around and is indeed what is said in this investor presentation: hTTps:// There are some very interesting things in there. The most revealing is a picture of 'A GeoVS Hub System ready to be shipped to the ME'. Given that they have been bitten previously on buying equipment prior to contracts being signed, it suggests both certainty and imminence, to borrow a phrase. Also the £14 million cash inflow from Saudi in short order. Additionally,'follow-on contracts to expand these initial systems already under discussion' and re the Philippines 'negotiations underway for next phase and ongoing system maintenance and data supply contracts'. The picture is quite rosy indeed.
countryman5: I suspect that the major shareholders here understand the potential of this business. The potential is defined by the dedicated management and the unique product offering in a global market where there is a perception of future demand. I suspect that these same shareholders are more than happy to award shares to directors at a cost of 32.5 p when the share price exceeds 200p. The main reservation would have been cash burn, prior to the award of major systems contracts. With the confirmation that the bank is now happy to lend money without any security, the concerns about new shares being issued at a discount have dissipated. I am now expecting the share price to move to 85p when the next two major contracts are in the bag. I await comment from Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle.
countryman5: The headline figures look terrible, but what is the real story? There is £13 million from systems business received in cash but nothing declared as revenue. This anomaly is based on the initial BFAR contract which was to be funded by the French Government but was stopped when the contract was awarded to a UK company, instead of French CLS. The money the had to come from Philippine budgets. The contract was underpinned by two sets of milestones. Delivery and payment, The payment milestones were done on time periods, to match with budget availability. The delivery milestones were based on actual completed stages. When the contract was signed it was anticipated that the payment milestones would lag delivery. However, because of Covid the payment milestones have been ahead of delivery. The Company used to need about £10 million of turnover, at about 45% margin , to cover overheads. Because the overheads have grown in recent years to underpin the systems business, it now requires about £20 million of turnover. This last year there was £8 million from transceivers and £13 million of cash from systems. You could argue that the company broke even last year. Despite Covid, the systems business managed the same T/O of last year. I am expecting (Hoping for) 20 to 25% growth. ATON sales should be motoring (think Suez canal), a lot of the initial Class A's need replacing and increasingly countries are mandating boats over a certain size to have AIS. I believe Canada might be in that category. Turnover this year? I am assuming £10 million from transceivers. The BFAR contract will be completed this year, which will allow the £13 million of undeclared cash to be recognised plus the further £5.7 as identified in this statement. That is £28 million, without anything from the £125 million which is identified in the statement. Can we believe the figures in the statement? At the time of writing those figures must be true, because they will have been scrutinised by the Nomad, the bank and also the Company solicitor. It is interesting to note that the Bank has taken on the CBILS loan. The company has no assets and banks don't like lending to companies, without fixed assets that can be sold. The bank must have seen the contract documents before agreeing to the loan extension. If we accept the figures in the statement as being true, we are talking about £125 million of extra revenue over the next 24 months. If we assume £50 million of this in the current year, this would make T/O of £78 million this year. After servicing overheads, this could provide for a profit of £25 million!!!!!!!!! My concern was that the company might run out of cash. This is not an issue. A cynical soul might suggest that the bad headline figures today allow for Directors and shareholders in the know, to have a buying opportunity, assuming Directors are allowed to buy. Don't be surprised to see Director buying today. Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle likes this one. I will be interested to see what he has to say next Tuesday or Friday.
countryman5: How do you value AIM stock SRT? The obvious answer is to look at the share price. This is what the market says the Company is worth. However, like many companies, the share price is a yo-yo. There is no serious research done and sentiment is driven by numerous factors, including 'fear and greed'. The SRT share price is also influenced by Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle. He has a good track record and a strong following. I predict that when the long awaited Middle East contract ($40 to $50 million?) is announced it will be followed by a Simon Thompson update. The share price will then be between 50 and 60 p. After several days the share price will start to drift back. However, if a similar contract is announced within a short period of time the share price will have a leg up to about 80p. If such an event happens then Simon Thompson becomes irrelevant because 'momentum' investors take over. What are the fundamental strengths of this company? Dedicated and enthusiastic management who appear able to choose a good team. Little debt and sufficient cash in bank. Validated Sales Opportunity Pipeline (VSOP)of about £550 million. Market ridicules this but this figure will have been validated by Nomad. No pension liability. The Warren Buffet 'Economic Moat'. This means that the company has a unique offering that can not be easily replicated. The Geovs system is the hub of the company's Marine Domain Management (MDM) system. The Geovs system is constantly upgraded with numerous layers of software. This system receives all of the information feeds (AIS, CCTV, satellite, radar, fish catch reporting, etc) and slices and dices the information so that the operator is presented with all of the critical alerts and information. The Geovs facility puts the Company in a unique position when global contracts are tendered. The Company has also built up a world class reputation for quality and service with its AIS transceivers. It has its own growing brand called EMTRAK but it also sells to others such as Raymarine. This part of the company produces sales of about £8 million PA at about 45% margin with growth about 15% pa. The great potential of the company is the VSOP of £550 for MDM contracts. As mentioned above, this is ridiculed by the market. However, if and when contracts start to be delivered the company could easily be producing T/O of £70 million PA with an operating profit of £20 million. How do you value a fast growing company delivering such numbers? Another thought. There are a few investors here who collectively own nearly 50% of the company. I suspect that they have placed their bets following detailed meetings with management and these investors share the vision of the future. They currently like the AIM tax advantage for inheritance tax purposes. Currently no tax to pay. The Chancellor might reduce or remove this concession in the future. On the other hand inheritance tax might rise from its current 40% level. A final comment. This Company is not standing still with its R&D. We have been told about a completely new product , which will probably take several months to come to market. The established 'Aids To Navigation' (ATON) device is at last gaining traction and has been incorporated in a 'Turn Key' solution for monitoring ports and inland waterways. This system has only recently been launched but has enormous potential
countryman5: Those investors who read the paper copy of Investors Chronicle will be digesting Simon Thompson’s SRT BUY recommendation over the weekend.
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