Sdic Power Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 17/2/2011 16:59

bisiboy.....you me too. There were quite a few guys with large holdings in SDIC so I am sure we have not heard the last just yet.

[bisiboy] 17/2/2011 16:55

yes and on goldman sachs conviction buy list

why didnt i just buy gagfah- speymill was unfortunatly a much larger holding
for me..

[scburbs] 16/2/2011 17:02

Gagfah continues to perform strongly, up another 25% in the last 6 weeks.

SDIC due to report on the JM loan on 18 February (or at least this is the date it expires).

[scburbs] 27/1/2011 20:00

Lagosboy, LOL! I was referring to the liquidity comments more than one specific deal. Don't worry I am not holding my breath for SDIC, but I am hoping I will make materially more profits on Gagfah than my SDIC losses. Their strategy of selling properties into a robust market and then buying back shares at a discount seems like a good one to me.

[lagosboy] 27/1/2011 19:40

scrubs

That's €39 m, were talking over 1,000 million Euro Estate here.

[scburbs] 27/1/2011 10:03

Continuing signs of increasing liquidity.

"Swiss private equity investor Corestate has completed the sale of a Berlin-based residential portfolio to property investor Zentral Boden Immobilien for €39m (£33m).

...

Thomas Landschreiber, chief operating officer of Corestate, said: "Beginning in the second half of 2010, we have seen a significant and continued increase in the demand for German residential assets."

Source EGi

[bisiboy] 26/1/2011 18:34

hope you are wrong but woudnt bet the ranch on it.

[lagosboy] 25/1/2011 17:47

When companies are run as badly as SDIC has been, there usually a graveyard of skeletons in the cupboard.

Can't see the curent economic strength in Germany, rising rents and property pices coming to the rescue here, I suspect from estate valuations down to the property management side that SDIC is flawed throughout.

We all know the debt was meant to be securitised, so that failure and the poor mangement in my view means that the banks will take a haircut and the equity holders a cold bath. The only ones to win in these situations are the lawyers and army of other 'professional advisers ' that get called in.

[scburbs] 24/1/2011 13:01

Further signs of German rental inflation starting to creep above historic norms of c.1-2%. Maybe too late for SDIC, but Gagfah (big presence in Berlin (20%), Dresden (14%) and Hamburg (6%)) starting to rerate upwards, supported by share buybacks.

Conwert reported (P5 of link) the following market rental growth rates between Q3 2009 and Q3 2010.

Berlin 15%
Frankfurt 6%
Hamburg 8%
Stuggart 3%
Potsdam 7%
Dresden 6%
Chemnitz 3%

[hosede] 10/1/2011 09:29

The only hope is that the lenders can be persuaded that with Germany's economy moving quite strongly ahead, house prices will rise and they are better to hang on in there. In normal times this would be no problem, but at the moment with all banks desperate to cut risk, they may decide to take the small haircut instead.

[davidosh] 05/1/2011 16:40

Absolutely and there are many questions to be answered ?

[scburbs] 04/1/2011 16:56

Announcement due this week on JM loan.

"Shareholders will be aware that Mr Mellon, a director and substantial shareholder in SDIC, lent €630,000 to the Company in July 2010. That loan was used to assist the Company with its working capital requirements. As reported in the announcement made on 24 November 2010, the loan was due to mature on 15 November 2010, but Mr Mellon has agreed to extend the maturity date to 7 January 2011. All other terms of the loan agreement remain unchanged."

[scburbs] 04/1/2011 13:02

By using SDIC's handy monthly monitor (now discontinued!). We can see the movements in the largest 5 listed German resi companies (SDIC aside!) since 30 June 2010. As can be seen by the numbers below there has been a very strong turn around in sentiment for German resi companies (or at least those that have been properly managed!).

Gagfah 5.94-6.89 (up 16%)
Deutsche Wohnen 6.4-10.66 (up 67%) - well placed with 58% of units in Berlin
TAG 4.65-6.57 (up 41%)
Conwert 8.59-11.12 (up 29%)
Colonia 4.09-5.65 (up 38%)

[scburbs] 04/1/2011 12:34

Hi Lagosboy, Thanks. Happy New Year.

The German economy continues to go from strength to strength of the back of its export boom. If Asia continues to power on then EU interest rates look far too low for Germany. To put them up now would create such political tension that I don't think Germany will force rises through quickly enough (although I am sure they will start to rise this year). German inflation is exactly what the rest of the Euro zone needs to ease their pain.

If anyone in SDIC is looking for straws to clutch at, a golden combination of rent rises (already happening in Berlin - see below article on protests) and swap rates nudging up could still see some value returned by SDIC (but it needs to happen quickly!). A number of German residential companies (e.g. Deutsche Wohnen and TAG Immobilien) have now re-rated very close to their NAV in the expectation of improved fundamentals including growing rents.

This improvement in fundamentals will probably come too slowly for SDIC (as I don't think they have many trendy new Berlin properties!) unless they can slow down legal proceedings.

However, for those looking for a decent yield (c.6%) and a still significant discount to NAV, Gagfah is worth a look (it is also short on trendy Berlin properties, although it has 13.6% of its portfolio in Berlin). The share price is now being supported by a significant NAV/share enhancing share buyback programme, but is still trending behind its peer group.

""Germany remained the star performer, seeing near record growth," he added.

"However, welcome signs of recoveries were also evident in the periphery, where export sales helped boost output growth in all cases except Greece."

In Germany, the PMI index rose to 60.7 in December, and the employment index rose to a record level of 57.1."



""Rents have risen by 50 per cent in this area [Berlin] in the last few years," he said. "I had to wait for six months to find an apartment. For people with families, it's even harder," said the 28-year-old student.

In certain trendy parts of Berlin, the demand for housing simply exploded, with the district of Friedrichshain being a prime example.

...

A building boom that took place after the fall of the Berlin Wall 21 years ago left supply hugely outstripping demand and lower living standards in the former communist east also kept a lid on prices.

But all this is changing, said Empirica, a consultancy, with a 14 per cent rise in rents the past year."

[lagosboy] 23/12/2010 16:12

I would not hold my breath on this one....unblikely in my view that equity holders will receive a single penny when all is said and done.

The banks are in capital recovery mode, they will conduct the sale of property with potential buyers and they will take a haircut to close the deal and bring in the cash.

Fair value is the bid, the receivers have s duty to take the best bid.

It a great pity .......Merry Xmas Scburbs

[bisiboy] 23/12/2010 09:01

scburbs- thanks for the post
it seams they havnt got a lot to tell us at the moment but appear to be trying to keep us informed.
i had noticed the swap rates but what you say is very true re costs of winding up all the value for shareholders could dissapear although the receivers do have a legal responsibility to sell at fair value.
i noticed that the costs associated with recent sales of german residential by taliesian amounted to around 6% of proceeds if that was repeated with us it is a large chunck of equity gone.
i have had one or to total write offs before with investments but i have to say i am not particulary happy eith this.
warning signs were there though and i chose to ignore them.

[scburbs] 23/12/2010 08:06

A bit more news today. Wholesale effective resignation of Directors. Jim Mellon is now largely the board. Good to see Goal having reached agreement to provide services and discussions continuing. Not much other detail, e.g. powers of Receivers to sell and whether the Receivers report to the bank or the court. Also the Receivers fees are very critical as this is where a lot of the supposed equity value could well disintegrate along with whether it is critical for them to realise best price or just to accept first offer etc.



More positive news (not mentioned) is that the €102m swap liability should have seen a significant reversal since it was last reported at 30 June. The 5 year swap rate in this period has gone from 2.1% to 2.6%.

[bisiboy] 22/12/2010 09:24

i am suprised we have not heard any more

[davidosh] 21/12/2010 21:21

There is still chance for a few sparks...The Agm is on the last working day before Christmas at 9am in the Isle of Man so extremely difficult for anyone to attend...I bet the directors do not even bother to turn up knowing no shareholders will be able to make it !!

If I were the institutions after the way the last year has gone and how this whole debacle has been handled I would sack the lot of them ! I doubt those instos have any balls though and probably wrote this off a year ago...They probably believe in Santa too...lol

[the troll] 21/12/2010 19:24

due to a complete & utter lack of interest, the lights have been switched off.

[okisen] 07/12/2010 23:52

i havent given up. but not much i can do but wait. surely, with the german rental market in such good health, sdic must have lowered the vacancy levels since the numbers from the june statement. maybe they can find a buyer for the whole thing?

[the troll] 07/12/2010 16:40

I haven't ( see post 1415 ), any views ?

[davidosh] 07/12/2010 16:26

Has everyone given up here then ?