Speymill Share Discussion Threads

[short1] 27/11/2007 12:25

I wwonder if the advise to the management was to put the TS after hours to avoid the shorters coming in and absolutely hammering the share to below the price that it was set first thing this morning and whether that was the lessor if two evils? Just a thought.

[tsmith2] 27/11/2007 11:50

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Fitch Ratings said it has upgraded Macau-based
Tai Fung Bank's (TFB) individual rating to 'B/C' from 'C', and its support
rating to '2' from '3', reflecting its conservative balance sheet and excellent
asset quality.
Despite many lending opportunities in Macau particularly in regards to
property, given the strong economic growth led by the territory's booming casino
and gaming industry, TFB has maintained a conservative lending stance, the
rating agency said.
TFB's profitability improved notably in 2006 and the first half of 2007,
thanks to higher net interest margins, large write-backs of provisions for
doubtful loans, and tight control on expenses, Fitch added.
Bank of China holds a 50.3 pct stake in Tai Fung. TFB is the second-largest
bank in Macau with 21 branches.

[slapdash] 27/11/2007 11:37

never mind P/E ratios.. how much is the stock of a company run by greedy apparently misleading managment worth??? Slap

[leoleo73] 27/11/2007 10:57

Assuming the re-incorporation costs where not included in the previous forecast, but the level was known about before this statement, I make this a cut in the expectations from £3.3m to £2.4m before bonus payments, or £1.7m including cash and non-cash bonuses. After tax that's maybe £1.3m which gives a 2007 PE of 21. If the only improvement in 2008 is the non-recurrance of the re-incorporation costs then the 2008 PE is 16.5.

Assuming these earnings are secure then in these market conditions an untrustworthy company like this is worth 4-7 times earnings IMHO.

Note that 0.4% of the quoted $3.5bn funds when fully invested is only ~£2.5m after bonuses and taxes.

[nickcduk] 27/11/2007 10:08

Slapdash - You have to differentiate between the fund manager and SYG. The investors in the funds don't really care what goes on at SYG. In the prospectus investors were promised a 6% yield and a chance to invest in German residential property. They have not been misled and will have realised this was a long term play. It will probably come good over the medium term.

New fund launches are not really on the horizon at the moment but if they could offer an angle that fund managers want exposure to then I don't see why they wouldn't come back to SYG. Obviously if they have a track record of launching funds that do badly they are unlikely to get further mandates. A bit early to comment on that though.

[lbo] 27/11/2007 09:55

Don't forget to mention the guys who sold the story to the investors! I wonder do they get kick backs from the bonuses aswell?

[slapdash] 27/11/2007 09:55

nickcduck - I think that is a kind interpretation. The funds are basically concept funds with a heavy skew towards Germany whose poperty market has supposedly been the next big things for many years. If Speymill has got Germany wrong, and it looks like they have, why would anyone want to be in a new fund with them. Or to roll over the existing ones. Also they could well get no performance bonuses....

companies like this live or die by their perception.. as this affects the ability to retain and keep money.... in my view this reputation is now shot to pieces... funds can be wound up...

This company's days are numbered.... look at what happended to Absolute Capital..... also might be some litigation over this bonus thing....

Slap

[nickcduk] 27/11/2007 09:50

The business itself is fine. It has all these funds under management and it has a 5 or 7 year contract to run the fund. If they return what they have promised then investors will be happy.

What has gone wrong is the underhand bonus scheme that has suddenly been revealed. What is to stop them increasing it to even higher levels or even taking all the swag for themselves. Can't trust them at all. Jim Mellon is the biggest crook of them all it seems for agreeing to it. The management I imagine were promised these fat bonuses before they signed on. Shame no one thought to tell the rest of us shareholders.

I wouldn't actually be surprised if the bonus scheme is heavily watered down but it still won't tempt me back in. The damage is done now and can't be repaired in my eyes.

[slapdash] 27/11/2007 09:41

to me the benign interpretation some might give to this is misguided..

why are these guys so keen to get bonuses now and upfront... it appears to signal the future for this company is bleak...

Furthermore, this company is only about perception and confidence... so what that they have all these funds... the money can move on.... and their funds have generally done poorly.. their funds can unwind and then no more management fees to Speymill...

Also why would you invest in a Speymill fund if the guys behind hte comapny appear dodgy and self-interested....

this is basically a company run by greedy so and sos that have sought to cash in on a huge property boom to fleece investors... these kinds of companies with their huge fees... poor coroprate governance... and short-term strategies don't last...

I doubt Speymill will be around in its current form with existing management in a few years..

Slap

[lbo] 27/11/2007 09:35

What other nasty surprises do they have coming?? I wonder will they be after hours aswell!

[steve36] 27/11/2007 09:16

And they'll be able to give themselves loads more shares under the deferred scheme now the price has fallen so much. Timing delays aside, the long term value of the company to shareholders is 35% less than it was before they decided to generously reward themselves at the same time as giving a profit warning. It therefore seems about right to me that the share price is down approx 30% today. Sold half my shares at £1.20 but kicking myself for buying them back plus more at just under £1.

[nickcduk] 27/11/2007 08:21

No way you can really dress up how bad yesterdays news was. The delays in investing the German and Macau funds was neither here nor there. That was to be expected and the longer term revenues were secure enough.

The profit sharing news was obscene. I can't believe they decided to only tell shareholders about any such scheme 11 months into the year. They happily let the brokers produce their research knowing full well they were never going to be met because of the bonus scheme. Jim Mellon comes out of this extremely badly. As largest shareholder he could obviously stop this but it looks as though he was fully supportive of it all along.

Ive taken a massive hit here so there are sour grapes but I just can't trust the management any more. Im considering reporting them to the regulators for having created a false market in the stock for so long. This is very worst of Aim and does nothing to help its reputation.

[robbie12] 26/11/2007 23:23

Everyone has been saying for months that the german market is weakening. How on earth has it taken so long for these muppets to realise that. Factor in purchase costs in german of around 12%, then take into account the fees, then try to work out how long it will be before these guys make a real profit on their/your investments. LOL

[nigelsom] 26/11/2007 19:39

What on earth is the company doing releasing in effect a profit warning after hours? This is well out of order and is exactly the sort of thing which would put me off a company. I have noted the name of the Nomad and publicity companies - more additions to the blacklist, I'm afraid. This sort of behaviour is just not good enough and if Speymill are happy with it then they won't be staying in my portfolio for long. Grrrr.

[tsmith2] 26/11/2007 17:40

I dont like the timing of the TS, after hrs seems sneeked in.

[steve36] 26/11/2007 17:29

Seems a bit generous to me to pay out 35% of pre tax profit above £1m as bonus when they had already made £1.4m in the first half. Not exactly a stretching target.

[spaceparallax] 26/11/2007 16:44

Not a happy TS. Not glum, but with the sort of uncertainty that the Market doesn't like - especially at a time like this.

[slapdash] 26/11/2007 16:35

hmmm.. obviously someone new there would be a negative update... Slap

For Immediate Release


Stock Exchange Announcement


26th November 2007


Speymill Group plc ("Speymill" or "the Company")

Trading Update

The Board of Speymill today announces an update on trading.


The recent severity of financial market conditions has led to a more cautious
and considered approach by the Company's investment management business in
proposing German residential properties for acquisition. Whilst management
believes this is the appropriate approach for long term creation of shareholder
value, this has resulted in a slower than expected rate of investment of the "C"
share proceeds of the Speymill Deutsche Immobilien Company (SDCC) Fund during
the second half of the current trading year. Although it is possible that some
significant additional property acquisitions may be made by the year end, these
cannot be guaranteed and, for the reason below, the Board considers that the
market should be made aware of the timing delays and the corresponding likely
reduction in income stream from the fees payable against investments made.


There have also been delays in local planning and approval processes for
construction projects in Macau, which have held back the previously anticipated
rate and level of investment in the Speymill Macau Property Company (MCAU).


In addition to the investment delays noted above, Speymill's holding company was
re-incorporated in the Isle of Man in September 2007, incurring one-off costs of
almost #400,000, which under IFRS are immediately expensed against profits.


Immediately following the announcement of Speymill's most recent interim results
on 24 September 2007, the Company's broker, Lewis Charles Securities, issued a
research note forecasting that the Company would achieve a pre tax profit of
#3.651m (before any allowance for the costs of Speymill's incorporation in the
Isle of Man) for the year ending 31 December 2007. It has now become apparent
to the Board that the outcome for this year is likely to fall short of this
forecast for the reasons listed above.


The Speymill Board wishes to emphasise that the Company remains both profitable
and cash generative and pre tax profits for the year ending 31 December 2007
will show a significant advance on the results for the year ended 31 December
2006. The Board has recently approved the implementation of an employees' annual
bonus scheme which will pay out 20% of the first #1m of pre tax profits and up
to 35% of additional pre tax profits above #1m. Half of the bonus is expected to
be paid in cash and half in deferred share entitlements. The bonus scheme will
apply as from the year ending 31 December 2007.


For the six months ended 30 June 2007 the Company reported pre tax profits of
#1.405m, which excluded any bonus provision and Isle of Man re-incorporation
costs. Excluding re-incorporation costs and provision for the cash element of
the estimated annual bonus cost, full year pre tax profitability is currently
estimated to be broadly consistent with the profitability achieved by the
Company in the first half.


There is no change to the Board's previously announced intention to pay a
dividend in respect of the year to 31 December 2007.


On a fully leveraged basis Speymill's current funds under management are
expected to reach approximately US$3.5bn once fully invested. The Company had
no funds under management just over two years ago.


Full year results for the Company's UK contracting business are expected to be
in line with the targets set at the start of the year and pleasingly the forward
order prospects have now risen further to #130m.


Progress on the recently announced Speymill Goodman Retirement Villages joint
venture is also encouraging and is in line with the business plan developed at
the founding of that business earlier this year.


The Company has no debt.


-End-

[nickcduk] 26/11/2007 15:54

Looks like the overhang has been cleared in SYG. Market is now bidding for 50k and offering only 10k. Maybe TW is gearing up to pick up a few for his fund. I think there are a lot of stocks which he has tipped where investors are hoping he buys a few for his new fund. Im not sure he will be that obvious because otherwise he will end up being second guessed by his subscribers and his performance will suffer.