Spdr � Util Discussion Threads

[psuedoname] 23/7/2003 09:56

captain, again thanks for your time on the closing price of kel. I'm watching kel and waiting. I did carry on adding to my shorts yesterday in the expectation that this was the same old story; it outperforms the sector, holds up and then drops, ....but it didn't. So I've taken the loss and will hold with a small short.

I think jeff said before, that kel(or was that uu.) had been good to him over the months/years of trading and you need to expect a reversal at some stage

[captain cash] 22/7/2003 23:49

best guess - the rise has been too fast for the volume as already stated by Blackhawk which weakens the stock. There is one big buyer who is not being very clever and the big sellers have worked this out I reckon which is why the price is not getting pushed down.
The big sellers will wind the volume up at the end of the day and I would expect it to fall then unless the big buyer gets filled earlier.

How far and fast will it fall - no idea depends on how much stock the big buyer wants. This big buyer is also stupid enough to push it higher yet. Makes it difficult trying to get the best entry point.

Currently short from 436ish and will add as soon as i think the turn is about to happen

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 23:41

captain, yes you might well be right. Where do you think kel's heading off to ?

[captain cash] 22/7/2003 23:36

ignore the buy to sell ratio on l2 - it's a waste of time.
L2 useless on kel today - the buyers are hiding on it when it suits them

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 23:33

hijeff, I presume your short kel and waiting for a drop

[hijeff] 22/7/2003 23:23

kel average at 442.50
spw going mad.

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 23:17

blackhawk, thanks. Approx. 50% of volume is via sets and the remainder off-book

[captain cash] 22/7/2003 22:14

closing prices - the buyer is definitely not finished - in fact still wants a stack. However the good news is there was nearly 50k at 442 he didn't take.
Also most of the day he wasn't prepared to go above 442 to 443.
So tentatively i surmise that either whatever order is being worked the top price the big buyer is prepared to pay is around 442 or the buyer feels for the moment that the price doesn't need to be pushed up any further as he is getting lots of fills. This would also fit with the 2 large 2.5 million trades
I see no reason to be especially concerned yet. Sometimes patience is required not that I have alot of it.

[moneymagnet] 22/7/2003 19:47

UU. indicators looking more +ve again now.(p&m)

[hijeff] 22/7/2003 19:30

UU. the laggard in this sector,more to come.out of the office all day wednessday so keep the thread alive guys.

[hijeff] 22/7/2003 19:16

pseudo,hang in there it will come back the 200dma is 408.

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 15:49

captain

any thoughts on the closing prices ?

[shaunie] 22/7/2003 15:46

short KEL at 440, offer will be in at 445 if anyone wants to lift it. Are you playing this one Mr. brewer man???

[rambutan2] 22/7/2003 15:31

not sure if the thread really covers this, but, any views on whats likely to happen to bristol water if the reconstruction gets the go ahead. to put is simply, will the share price just fall by the amount of cash (£7.50) being paid out, or will the price stay nearer where it is as the same div will be continued to be paid? thanks in advance.

[ohojim] 22/7/2003 14:55

Well I knew I was going to take the wrong train so I left early. But looks like should get there eventually.

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 14:44

another 2.5m shares, vol to date 7.5 m, bit on the high side, twice the daily average

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 13:57

big something just took 2.5 million kel shares

captain, thanks for your thoughts again. I will wait and observe. I'm in at 437 and waiting for a fallback

[captain cash] 22/7/2003 13:49

pseudoname - watch the volume and price action and l2 in the last half hour. The big players tend to stop playing games with l2 in the last half hour and declare what they are really prepared to pay because then they get the maximum volume of fills.
It won't necessarily tell you whether they have finished or not but sometimes you get a clue

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 13:28

captain

thanks for your explaination. I know it takes time to write stuff for others and can take time away from your own trading. As you said the key is identifying when the buyer has had his fill and the price drops back.

I presume if the price stays up compared to the sector, by 4.30pm, the buyer may be back tomoroow for more ?

[captain cash] 22/7/2003 13:15

ohijim - for every sell there is a buy - you can't sell stock which someone else doesn't want to buy - that's why there is an order book. It doesn't matter whether they are reported as sells or buys.

[captain cash] 22/7/2003 13:08

It would take a whole book to explain the workings on level2 but I hope this will illustrate.

Imagine you want to buy 1,000,000 shares in kel and are prepared to pay up to 445. Clearly you would prefer to pay 440 or even 435 if you can.

If you went straight ahead and put that 1,000,000 trade on the order book at 435 all the sellers would run away frightened as they would perceive that the price was going to rise. Even if you walked it up a penny at a time to 445 you still wouldn't get any fills as the sellers would be looking for 450+

So the buyer has to try and disgusise his intentions and break down the trades into smaller chunks so that the sellers don't realise that by waiting they could get a better sell price.

At the end of the day the large buyer can disguise his intentions for so long but if he really wants alot of shares it becomes obvious. The real expertise is figuring out when he has got all he wants so you can short it at the top. This part of it requires a lot of guesswork and if it's obvious to you it's also obvious to d4f and you may find difficulty getting a decent price to trade at.

PS big buyer slowed down now - why - who knows - maybe he's having a cup of tea or chatting someone up in the office; maybe he's making people think he's finished so that the sellers come out, the price falls a bit, more sellers come out, the price falls a bit more then bam he's got lots of stock to collect off the sell side of the order book.

[psuedoname] 22/7/2003 12:27

captain, thanks for that .......... apart from the increase in price, how can you tell there is a large buyer out there ?

how would a clever large buyer act ?

It would help me if I could understand what is happening..at present I use level II