Songbird Estates Share Discussion Threads

[mortimer7] 17/9/2014 14:59

Interim results day tomorrow (18th). Should be interesting if they're anything like the finals were in March.

[trytotakeiteasy] 22/7/2014 09:14

Songbird and QED merger - I can't agree that would be good. Very different businesses with Songbird having high quality central London assets and QED more a play on the ripple of prices to outer London.....Songbird's management are good on the operating side (maybe not the financial balance sheet side)... while QED's management have messed both sides up for a long time...

[quepassa] 29/5/2014 15:00

Re 146. the marriage value of Songbird and QED would be great in my view. both are pretty much single asset companies.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[fafa48] 26/5/2014 00:21

Hello all residents of this bb,

Sorry for not know SBD enough. I am interested in this. Just glimp the posts here. The speculation of TO, the FTSE100 entering, is any possibility of dividend? I guess the divi is not likely as the debt is scary.

Many thanks for your enlightening me, as I am thinking to buy (of course just 7% rise last Friday).

[naos] 07/4/2014 14:44

Interesting that with an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine and most shares down, Songbird is up yet again. A bit like gold, people like property plays when things get scary. And they may get very scary.

highpark, had a look at qed, but it's not something I'm interested in. I'd rather my property play be in Canary Wharf offices rather than student accomodation and care homes, but thanks for highlighting it.

[mike24] 07/4/2014 08:22

high park, QED looks good was hoping share price might dip a bit
but buying seemed strong last wk, commercial prices also seem twelve
months or so behind a residential property recovery,

big boost with Chinese purchase of house of fraser, but they have been buying
residential flats in Auckland for a few yrs, just to get the kids into
fluent English speaking environment,55k in 2001 is now 300k same problem
as here pricing first time buyers out,

[high park] 02/4/2014 14:51

If you're interested in residential property, Naos, look into QED, strong share price growth without the spectacular finish.

Songbird's valuation was un-expectedly high, hence the amazing spike. So everything's in the price.
SBD price & QED's had/have both been rising in anticipation of the Annual Results. If QED's results are as good, due 23 May, we might see a similar spike.

[naos] 02/4/2014 13:09

That's sensible for you high park as you came in at lower levels and it would be wise to take the profit as that's what its all about.

I'm not looking at this just because the share price has gone up over the last week, although that clearly piped my interest. But taking the wider view here.

Canary Wharf have pretty much filled up their ugly towers, with no new ones currently being built just yet, although several are planned but it'll be several years before they will appear. The even uglier walkie talkie tower will get fully let out soon. Songbird are diversifying into residential property and trying to attract tenants beyond the usual finance ones.

There is fast approaching a glut in high grade office space and demand for residential is still soaring, so I've no doubt Songbird will able to sell their tiny flats, once built, for a fortune.

Rents are pouring in from office as well as retail tenants and as the Canary Wharf estate, as originally planned, is now full, there are plans to expand with new developments like Heron Quays and Wood Wharf. And 70% of the tenants are locked in to lease agreements for at least 10 years, so that's pure profit from them with no cost or risk attached.

Crossrail opens at CW in 3 years, but the shops in the new station open next year and CW are well on the way to fully letting them all out, bringing in yet more dosh.

Although I am concerned about the debt, I understand enough about it to know that its long term debt and no bank/creditor can just pull the carpet out from underneath Songbird's feet.

Any more upward movement in the share price will become a very strong buy for me.

[high park] 02/4/2014 11:19

As this share has peaked, Naos, I'm in the process of getting out, just 5000 shares left. Putting the lot on OPAY, which has plenty of potential, and on which I lost a packet in 2006. Things are different now, as the famous saying goes, legal at the moment, but there are vested interests hoping to outlaw on-line gambling again. Not intended as advice. DYOR

[naos] 02/4/2014 11:03

Oh really, was not aware of any takeover even if it is long in the tooth. The folks who own the Shard are wanting to expand in London, so they may be a possible bidder, should it ever happen.

I've bought a few more today, but I am just going to be patient and see what happens before deciding upon any large trade in this.

Clearly, this share has been outstanding in the past, but whether it can return to that form is unclear at the moment.

[high park] 02/4/2014 08:17

As my charting mentor says, Naos, wait for confirmation. But it is fairly clear that SBD is going nowhere for a while.

PS excluding the unexpected of course, which has been expected for 4 or 5 years, a takeover by the Arabs.

[naos] 01/4/2014 20:08

high park, I'm not a day trader, chartist, expert in any way and I don't know what histograms and macds are lol, so can't comment on that. Clearly, by today's trading, you're right on the ball and things have now slowed and going sideways, or flat as I would say.

mike 24, good points about the debt. I'm no accountant as well being no chartist, so cannot claim to have expertise in reading a set of accounts. I just look at the profits and look at the debt and make a judgment from that.

Thanks for your input folks. I'll think I'll wait on the sidelines with this one and see if momentum returns. If it does, I'm in.

[high park] 01/4/2014 10:30

Very positive input, Gentlemen.

[mike24] 01/4/2014 08:32

Noas you say the debt is scary,

long term debt "v" inflation erodes at an average of 7/9% a yr
so present low rates mean free money/borrowing plus tax relief

short term debt as credit cards, cripples the consumer

house of fraser previous owners flogged off the freehold next to
their flagship store, for peanuts, if they had a 100% mortgage
on the site, they would still be sitting on an 800% profit

Woolworth were getting by till they starting paying rent of 3k a day
on a Big W site, now occupied by M&S

buybacks are defeating the object of hedging inflation/depreciation of money
just enhancing directors holdings, they haven't the balls to diversify
the likes of Andrew Lloyd (chemists) being the exception
buffett has gone 40yrs without buybacks & divis

[prokartace] 01/4/2014 07:06

High Park

In a normal situation all your signals would be correct if you are looking at technicals. However in this case the move is caused by a sharp change in fundamentals and therefore makes the share not over-bought. I do, though, agree that there will be a lot of sideways movement now and time will erode the MACD and Histogram

[high park] 01/4/2014 01:20

Some of your questions are answered in my previous post, Naos. Some more in my post 129. The debt is no doubt covered, will look into that tomorrow, it's all in the annual Report. The billion pound profit is a revaluation, and as they say, a profit is not a profit until it is banked.

It is the graphs that worry me. A 50 pence vertical rise, and look at the figures for MACD, NINE for the MACD, and FIVE for the Histogram. You're unlikely to see those again in a hurry. The suggestion is that we are seriously overbought, yet on Friday there were twice as many shares sold as bought. On Monday things are less clear, with the bulk undecided. Interestingly, half are ordinary trades, suggesting retail or human initiated trades, rather than robots.



So I anticipate consolidation, or at best, sideways trading.

[naos] 01/4/2014 00:17

Final thought for the day, with a market cap at almost 2 billion and rising. Perhaps this may be the start of the company heading back into the FTSE100 at some point in the future?? Trackers will buy then, pushing share price further up.

[naos] 31/3/2014 23:38

I can't make any comment on OPAY as I don't know the company and besides this thread is about Songbird.

But I would like to make some observations (questions):

Profits have risen five fold and the share price has shot up as a result. But could there be anything else happening here...?

Songbird say their shares are worth 290p according to the final report, what do people here think?

Trading volume has increased substantially, as opposed to the under 10 trades a day from a week ago. Some of the recent trades over the last past couple of days are large, ie possible buys of 250k, 100k shares etc. The EMS is 1500 shares. Stake building by someone??

The Canary Wharf estate is almost fully filled/let out and Songbird are spreading their wings into office developments elsewhere like the walkie talkie and shell centre. Plus, they're getting into residential property, which is a no brainer for them.

More shops are opening all the time and this brings in yet more dosh for the company. They're also trying to encourage a wider range of companies onto the estate beyond the usual banks/lawyers/accountants with small tech and other companies moving into 1CS. Songbird are hoping to eventually shift them into new towers planned in Heron Quays East and West. Its looking interesting and demand for new office space is now picking up. But...

I think this share is still risky, the debt is scary...but the rise in share price cannot be ignored and its clearly a breakout. I have some shares in this already, but would like to know if this is a real change in fortune for this company or a temporary blip. Perhaps when/if it gets to 290p, things may become clearer.

A billion pound in profit always helps matters.:)

[high park] 31/3/2014 22:28

Hello Naos. Can't disagree with you. That's why I bought into OPAY, which just kept rising and rising. Apart from that, I was emotionally involved, since it crashed on me in 2006. But OPAY is a computer based company, which once the systems are in place, can grow exponentially without much effort on the part of Management.
Real Estate is different. Apart from a major economic crash, like 2007, growth is slow and steady, Planning Permissions, Construction and Letting periods all take time. The impressive growth since 2012 is based on a stabilising economy and anticipation of a re-valuation. Have a look at other companies, QED, UTG etc. Now that valuation has gone from 100mill to 1000mill, there's little room for improvement. My take is that the share price will simply move sideways for the next 4 or 5 months. OPAY could do handstands in that time. If successful I'll look in again on me old Canary Bird when I'm a bit wiser.

[naos] 31/3/2014 18:38

Hello folks, following on from the last past, personally I'd rather buy into a share that keeps rising, ie this one, rather than one that has dropped 30% and may go further down.

Canary Wharf are filling up their ugly towers and with it come lots of not ugly profits. I know which property play I prefer.

[high park] 30/3/2014 14:37

You're an optimist, spacedust, as per your posts 120. I was anticipating £2, and am thus a happy chappy. Normal discount to NAV is generally 20%, so the shares could still climb to say £2.40, but no further until the next Valuation. These shares are in my SIP, but I won't live to see £10. The Charts look a bit toppy, MACD and Stochastic maxed out and overbought, No chance at all of a Gold Cross either. So I'm thinking of taking my profit and putting the lot on OPAY, which looked just the same three weeks ago, but is now down 30% and good value.

[spacedust] 30/3/2014 11:57

Staggering!!! NAV is 290p per share (up to end of last year) so this should be at least 290p right now. I would assume now three months on the NAV is well over 300p per share. This share will break the 500p barrier this year and then once Divs are re-instated who knows where. 2015 £10 plus per share!!!!!

[spacedust] 30/3/2014 11:54

It has many followers who don't post as frequently - I don't understand why this share is in the AIM market. Profits AFTER TAX rose 5 fold. from circa £185m to almost £1bn.