Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 03/1/2019 09:57

"In the ground"... I think someone posted that Liberum see an NPV of $3.75bn for Alpala.
The N in NPV assumes the costs of production and modelling of prices in their calculation. Whatever the basis of their model is we do not know... even if we did trust an anlayst ;-)!

NPV of $3.75bn equates to an share price of 159p at forex of $1.275/GBP according to the model in my spreadsheet. Personally, I see a lower NPV but that still equates to an share price of £1.46 and the canadians in Mirabeau's post above see C$1.32 (or 77gbx).

PS: 2/3rds of value in Alpala is copper, at current prices. BUT, the upside for the copper price is less than the upside for the gold price in my view.
DYOR

[mam fach] 03/1/2019 09:10

I can smell it. Little more chat on BB is good sign.
Onwards and upwards.

[mam fach] 03/1/2019 09:10

I can smell it. Little more chat on BB is good sign.
Onwards and upwards.

[alwaysevolving] 03/1/2019 08:53

I think we will see way over 1300 gold a lot sooner than the end of the year.

It’s all coming together nicely here. Can you smell it?

[mknight] 03/1/2019 08:38

Mikalan

That's why we need PEA ,we need to know how much will it cost to get all that copper and gold out . If it comes in less than 3 billion then it seems a no brainer .

[mknight] 03/1/2019 08:34

I was thinking end of week.

[mikalan] 03/1/2019 08:34

or just over £1,000 in our money. In the ground yes, but that's £23,000,000,000 or 23 Billion Pounds (US Billion)

[sogoesit] 03/1/2019 08:32

Indeed, gold price has rallied in last few months on the back of increased volatility in markets and geopolitical risk (trade).
Those fundamentals look set to continue in 2019 so we may see well over 1300 by end of the year.

[mknight] 03/1/2019 08:23

Gold heading for 1300 by looks of it .

Before someone mentions it yes our 23 million oz are still in the ground .maybe NM is waiting for 1500 an oz😉

[mirabeau] 03/1/2019 06:39

SolGold Plc

Beyond Alpala

Impact: Positive

Sampling results from SolGold’s Porvenir porphyry targets in Southern Ecuador provide exciting new prospects for SolGold as it continues to demonstrate its copper-gold expertise in Ecuador. These results support our thesis that SolGold may be in possession of not one but multiple world class copper discoveries in an emerging mining jurisdiction (Figure 1).
Highlights:

- High-grade discovery. Results from initial rock-saw channel sampling across the exposed outcrops at Porvenir include an open intersection of 62m grading 1.16% CuEq at Target 15 (Figure 2). The outcrop appears to be well-preserved and thus could be the top of a vertically extensive system. The intersection discovered within an 800m wide by 1200m long mineralized corridor is part of a greater 1km by 6km zone which has been identified to host at least two porphyry centres. While it is early days, this reflects the size potential we see at Porvenir.

- Systematically demonstrating exploration potential. Target 15 is similar in age, mineralization style and may prove to be similar in size to the company’s world-class Alpala deposit where the company has defined a resource of 2.95Bt grading 0.52% CuEq (0.2% cut-off). These results highlight the benefits of the company’s first mover advantage into Ecuador back starting in 2014 and reflect the fact that while Cascabel is the most advanced, there is much more potential to the company’s wider portfolio of highly prospective assets.

- A significant portfolio with news to come. SolGold is rapidly establishing itself as an important player in Ecuador with 11 priority projects and 42 geologists in regional exploration. The company’s other important regional projects include La Hueca and Blanca, which, alongside Porvenir and other regional projects, we expect are likely to bring exciting catalysts following drilling this year.

Valuation:
The market does not account for the potential beyond Alpala. SolGold trades at 0.44x NAV, a slight discount to peers at 0.46x. Given the world class nature of the Alpala deposit and the interest from majors, we believe a 0.90x NAV multiple applied to our C$1.47 NAVPS estimate would be appropriate implying a value of C$1.32/share. Upcoming catalysts: 1) Ongoing exploration and 2) Maiden PEA for Alpala (Q1/19).

-

[mam fach] 03/1/2019 00:21

Sorry but I don't agree.
None of the recent Rns's have managed to lift share price.
More sells than buys today. Perhaps there is a credibility issue?
Be happy to be proved wrong.
Holding on to my shares.

[mknight] 02/1/2019 21:06

Thanks pob69

The more people that know about the stock and do their research the higher the price will go .

[pob69] 02/1/2019 20:49

Positive coverage of $SOLG $SOLG.L Solgold $CGP #ecuador by the Motley Fool in Canada

A bidding war appears to have erupted over junior gold miner SolGold (TSX:SOLG), which is conducting exploration work in the Andean nation of Ecuador. The miner’s stock has soared by 28% over the last year, and there are indications that it could climb higher.

Emerging as a potential takeover target
SolGold has been attracting considerable interest from a range of major miners. Australian senior gold miner Newcrest Mining recently upped its stake in SolGold to just over 15%. This is after the senior miner invested US$250 million to acquire a 27% stake in Lundin Gold, which is developing the Fruta del Norte ore body in southwestern Ecuador.

Newcrest’s investment in SolGold came months after the world’s largest diversified miner BHP Group announced that it had acquired an additional 6% interest in the junior miner for US$35 million, upping its total stake to just over 11%.

There is every likelihood that SolGold could become a takeover target, as senior miners move quickly to boost spending on quality exploration and development projects to make up for the emerging shortfall in reserves and production caused by underinvestment in new projects because of the last commodity slump.

Quality portfolio of mining assets
Aside from SolGold being a potential takeover target, there are a range of other factors that could propel its market value higher, especially if gold moves higher over the course of 2019. SolGold is focused on developing the Cascabel/Alpala project, in which it has an 85% controlling interest, located in the Andes mountains in northern Ecuador roughly a three-hour drive from the capital Quito.

The asset has indicated and inferred resources of 11 million tonnes of copper and 23 million ounces of gold. It should be noted that while the content of copper and gold at the project is vast, unlike proved and probable reserves, there is no clear indication that the metals are economically viable to mine.

SolGold has a solid balance sheet and considerable liquidity. This leaves it well positioned to continue developing its assets, including the Alpala project. It finished the third quarter 2018 with A$54.5 million in cash and no long-term debt.

Lower jurisdictional risk
Historically, Ecuador has earned a bad reputation as a jurisdiction for foreign miners to operate in. Many gold miners, like Kinross Gold, failed to have any success in obtaining suitable frameworks in which to develop their projects, and it was this which saw the intermediate gold miner sell its Fruta del Norte project to Lundin Gold.

However, with the onset of the oil slump in late 2014, which had a sharp impact on fiscal revenues and growth in Ecuador’s oil-dependent economy, the government elected to deregulate the sector and attract greater investment.

To offset the revenues lost from oil production because of the long slump in petroleum prices, Ecuador is targeting US$4.6 billion in mining investment by 2021. Quito hopes that it will boost fiscal revenues through a combination of royalty, tax, and export income, thus alleviating the current budget deficit, which has ballooned to a startling 5% of gross domestic product.

To attract the required investment, Ecuador reduced taxes and reformed its mining regulations. The degree of political risk associated with the Andean nation has also been steadily decreasing, further enhancing its attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment.

Why buy SolGold?
Like any junior explorer and miner, SolGold is a risky investment, but the involvement of senior gold miner Newcrest and the world’s largest miner BHP reduces much of that risk. SolGold’s Cascabel concession where the Apala project is located is an extremely attractive asset and is attracting considerable interest from larger, cashed-up miners seeking to boost their portfolio of development projects.

The fact that both major miners have recently bolstered their interests in the junior miner indicates that it could become a takeover target. If the two major miners move to take over SolGold, a bidding war could erupt, which would cause its stock to soar.

[dmitribollokov] 02/1/2019 18:59

It will be one plant initially btw, the cu/au extraction takes place at the end.

Will be interesting to see if they have one plant or more in the region and what the capacity will be, judging by the size of the potential deposits across the portfolios they will need several at some stage and huge capacity.

[dmitribollokov] 02/1/2019 18:40

I omitted the comma sonit read incorrecrly i meant “like you said, not chump change”!

[trev1223] 02/1/2019 18:28

dmitri:
Thanks for your reply. I don't think that I suggested that copper production could be done for chump money, I know that the plant cost will be 'astronomical'. I was pointing out that gold production plant would be much cheaper. I have assumed that the processes for copper and gold will be done separately. If there is just one plant to do copper and gold production, then I am wrong in my assumption.

[mknight] 02/1/2019 18:05

Hi dmitri

Remember NM said he would finance Alpala by selling the gold from Blanca y nieve which we have not had updated since June. 😁

[dmitribollokov] 02/1/2019 17:38

Trev it will depend on the jurisdiction/location/time frame etc. Before xmas NM put the cost of bringing alpala to production at around $2.3bn. So not chump, change like you say. I don’t think that the way EM debt investors still view ecuador, they will be able to debt finance the project without some kind of equity strapped on. Especially when there are primary deals is safer jurisdictions already being pulled. Hence i favour jv at alpala or sale in order to finance explo what looks to be likely to be a highly prospective bunch of targets. Today’s results were an, albeit very early, reminder that alpala isn’t the only piece of treasure in the box.

[mknight] 02/1/2019 16:12

I wonder which regional site is next . Only 10 more to come . And by the time we get them we might be back to number 15 again. The mind boggles , still we have 42 geologists on the ground averaging 3 per site I would have thought .

We won't be short of news that's for sure.

[trev1223] 02/1/2019 15:46

dmitri
I agree these results are awesome. What I would like to know is, what the cost of setting up a copper producing plant. Pretty astronomical I would imagine in both time and money. Producing gold nuggets is far less costly as my understanding is that the plant is usually mobile. Any knowledge on producing these two metals.

[dmitribollokov] 02/1/2019 15:01

Excellent. I could offer you some geological input, but as you’ve already indicated from not being able to interpret pretty simple results yourself, you wouldn’t understand it, so i haven’t got the time nor the inclination to educate you from basics. Especially given your manner.

Why should anyone help you - and why are you invested in an exploration mining stock if you can’t interpret initial stage results? I’m not being acerbic, it’s a genuine concen.

[jerryspaniel] 02/1/2019 14:57

Thanks for the lesson Dimitri. In the absence of any geological input, I will draw my own conclusions.

[dmitribollokov] 02/1/2019 13:36

No, i am not a geophysicist, nor am i like you. I have been a long time commodities and mining investor.

Don’t trust opinions of people you’ve never met anyway. Do some digging (excuse the pun) compare the results with other large finds when they were at similar stages. Educate yourself. Look at mining time lines, average grades for the commodity in productive mines, the stages from initial discovery to production, what the various stages are. Rock chips/rock saw channels/RC drilling/diamond drilling/assaying/MRE/JORC/PEA/PFS/BFS etc. Be up to speed with all these terms. If you don’t understand it, you shouldn’t really be invested - Investing 101!

If you are up to speed with all of that and then you put into context where these results come from, combined with the company behind them in the current industry climate, then you will rightly conclude that these results for the stage this project is at are “awesome”;... ;-)

[jerryspaniel] 02/1/2019 12:55

Dimitri. You may well be right, but do you have the skills to interpret them as 'awesome'? You may be a geophysicist or a geologist, or a mining engineer or just someone like me, w/o the necessary knowledge to make such a statement.
Just trying to add some depth to the statements that's all.

[mknight] 02/1/2019 12:31

It is the only way to get it over to the investors just how big the source is . If he did a full regional rns then it would not have the same affect imho