Soco Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha2] 26/10/2017 16:51

You clearly called it correctly Edd , but now that the companies valuation is at rock bottom , then more downside is limited , unless of course the company is hiding bad news , which may be the case , but I doubt it, have researched the BOD and they are not crooks , so bodes well once we have some new positive news , have over 1/4 million of these and happy to wait for my target price to be achieved.

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 14:57

...oh dear...is he still going on?

[ed 123] 26/10/2017 14:36

Different views make a market. I wish you well with SIA and OPHR, Nigelpm. :-)

Filtered? Yes, I do remember. My perspective on that exchange was that Emptyend could not tolerate my negative views on Soco, so he chose to filter me.

As things have played out, Soco's share price performance has shown that my negativity was justified.

I don't expect Emptyend to come back on here and say, "Well done, Ed 123, you were right." It's less painful for him to keep me on filter.

I've no problem with being filtered. I still say it as I see it and hope my contributions provide a useful balance.

[nigelpm] 26/10/2017 14:15

Do you think you might be looking for anything that could be interpreted in a supportive way? If Soco is good buy at any level, it should be obvious. The fact that you have had to fish around for spurious support should be telling you something.

I'm not fishing for anything - just saw it and felt it somewhat similar.

By the way to save your time ee has filtered you so you are wasting your time trying to communicate with him ;-)

[nigelpm] 26/10/2017 14:14

Yup - appreciate it's somewhat obscure but I very much regard Soco (and OPHR for that matter) as a value share now.

[ed 123] 26/10/2017 14:13

Emptyend.

It's not the effort into promoting that has been lacking with Soco, it's the lack of a Soco growth strategy.

Imminent update?

Imv, the market will react negatively if it only gets:-

(1) TGT production tail-off will be slowed by the new water handling.

(2) There's a possibility of Vietnam exploration wells in 2020.


Nigelpm.

Do you think you might be looking for anything that could be interpreted in a supportive way? If Soco is good buy at any level, it should be obvious. The fact that you have had to fish around for spurious support should be telling you something.

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 13:54

nigel,Not so sure thats very relevant - but the fact that the sector remains out of favour most certainly is. In an out-of-favour sector, most of the interest is centred on companies that are perceived to have superior growth prospects...........the key word there being "perceived", because perceptions can change much more rapidly than the financial statements do.It would be fair to say, I think, that recently not much effort has been put in to promoting the attractions of the company and its strategy. However.....I expect that to change very rapidly once there are some serious news items that can be presented to the market. A new, focused, management team intent on restoration of growth against a backdrop of hardening oil prices should prove a rewarding combination over the next year or two.

[redhill9] 26/10/2017 12:20

I had the same problem yesterday with HL for a mere 2,000 purchase yet since then the share price is down further. Odd.

[mrwaite] 26/10/2017 12:01

Well there aren't many shares around. I am failing to get a quote from HL for any reasonable number of shares.

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 11:17

....ps.....TLW, OPHR and PMO are down between 56% and 77% over the last three years, just for context.

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 11:05

....erm....where you say "a bit", you mean that dividends have actually recouped somewhere around 20% of your purchase price.......so you are down by 50-60%, depending on the details.Of course that is still deeply unwelcome, but examination of the last 3-4 years performance of other shares in the sector shows that there were plenty of opportunities to lose much more elsewhere.

[lauders] 26/10/2017 10:56

Lauders,
You cannot possibly be down 90%. The shares have never ever been above £6 equivalent and over 80p per share has been paid out in dividends.

You are quite correct EE. Just feels that way! I checked my account and I am actually down by only 73.62% (not including the dividends which have helped a bit). Still, I am not impressed, as the Brits would say!

Would be nice to see that chart improve drastically. Perhaps a tournesol buy will do the trick ;-)

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 10:43

kenobi,I broadly agree with that. However, if such information may emerge as soon as Monday (assuming that is the timeframe for announcing the signing of 125/6, which will likely trigger a broader operational update for Vietnam) then there is a very limited time available for unexposed shareholders to act.rgds

[tournesol] 26/10/2017 10:43

….If I was new to SIA and hadn't bought MUCH higher up I may well be very interested around these levels….

….Like you, however, I would be entering at this level if I hadn't stayed overweight….

Funnily enough, that's more or less what I'm thinking. I'm not in the mood for significant exposure but I am considering a re-entry for a small stake. I'll see what happens this week before I push the button.

[kenobi] 26/10/2017 10:30

Disappointing share price movement lately, perhaps concerns about the current developments, especially the water handling capability being added. Hopefully we will get some info on how that's gone, and how it's performing and that it will at least be positive if not "game changing" as suggested at the AGM.

I guess we're going to have to wait for more info,

K

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 10:22

Lauders,You cannot possibly be down 90%. The shares have never ever been above £6 equivalent and over 80p per share has been paid out in dividends.Like you, however, I would be entering at this level if I hadn't stayed overweight over the last 3 years. I merely make the point that the drift lower has been on trivial retail volumes - and if anyone tried to pit serious money in they would struggle to do so under 120p or so, I suspect.

[lauders] 26/10/2017 10:14

If I was new to SIA and hadn't bought MUCH higher up I may well be very interested around these levels. However, I have lost a lot so far and averaging down is probably not a good idea. It needs REAL evidence that sentiment has turned here even if I miss 10% or so of the rise. Since I am now down almost 90% I think the BOD have a lot to prove.

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 10:05

Looking back on the PMDR announcements (and the share price chart), it seems that the new Watts/Brown team bought around 400,000-450,000 shares between them just before they joined the company in February. And they will have paid around 150p per share.As with all companies, especially in this sector, the question for investors is whether they believe in the management. I'd suggest that their track record at Cairn and elsewhere gives good reason to be optimistic about reinvigorating the company..... and, given the timeframes indicated at the AGM and subsequently for potential transactions, there may not be very long to wait for some evidence.Of course some will prefer to wait for hard evidence but, with only perhaps 30-40 million shares not in institutional/insider hands, I'd suggest that any renewed institutional interest on the back of a deal could move the price quite substantially and quickly.No doubt the usual suspects will be keen to dismiss those thoughts, but I definitely think we are close to a turning point for sentiment and the share price.

[jotoha2] 26/10/2017 08:18

Tea leaves it is then , so going to take another wedge here and await positive news.

[volsung] 26/10/2017 06:59

They should not have attacked the monkeys. Karma

[invisage] 26/10/2017 06:45

Never buy a stock making new lows.It's called a falling knife.To think Soco was once one of the biggest 250 companies worth over £2bn. What a fall from grace.Plenty of other stocks out there that actually go yo and make you money.

[ed 123] 26/10/2017 00:30

Why are you asking Emptyend for his opinion, Jotoha2?

He has been positive on Soco all the way down.

I don't give advice but, as a topic for discussion, there's an easy a way to outperform Emptyend. Buy yourself a tin of loose tea. Whenever it's decision time, make yourself a cup of tea and read the leaves. Tea leaves will give you the right answer some of the time. ;-O

[emptyend] 26/10/2017 00:22

Its worth noting that the new team will have put money in back in February at 130-140p. And they have a strong track record of growing businesses.Ex-post it is clear that we (me at least) were over-optimistic of corporate deals getting done in the last 2-3 years.....but I would very definitely be a buyer rather than a seller at this point. There is room to debate the right valuation, but IMO the right price is at an absolute minimum 20% above where the share price is right now. Don't believe me? Run the comparisons against others in the sector over the last year or two......and then do what you think appropriate.Lets see where things stand at the end of Q1 next year - but I'd be disappointed if its not heading north from 150p by that time. (bears please bookmark this post :-))

[nigelpm] 25/10/2017 22:29

When in doubt go back to the numbers, check, check again and if nothing has changed in your original reason for investing either :

1) Be patient and sit tight
2) Buy more
3) Sell and take the stress away