Soco Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 20/10/2017 18:03

Jotoha2. 4 years? Possibly the lowest close since January 2005? So, possibly a 12 year low? Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Agree, there will be news coming but, what I don't get, is why some people assume it will lift the share price.

Anyway, wish you well. Good luck. :-)

[jotoha2] 20/10/2017 17:12

Lowest share price for 4 years , certainly confirming that good news is on the way , mm are so easy to read..

[emptyend] 20/10/2017 16:39

....well......surprising really - except for the fact that in the absence of news the chart-followers, bots etc will push it wherever they fancy. But IMO there will be a good buying opportunity next week ahead of an update. Can't see why there should be any negative aspects to that update, unless they had some sort of problem installing water-handling gear.........and I'm hoping for a positive update on production capacity alongside the block signing news.

[nigelpm] 20/10/2017 16:26

I remain hopeful - had another slug this afternoon.

[ed 123] 20/10/2017 16:17

"Might get a £1 at this rate."

Welcome to the Dark Side, Nigelpm. ;-O

[nigelpm] 20/10/2017 15:06

Might get a £1 at this rate.

[emptyend] 19/10/2017 21:44

So.......a week after the expected signing of the 125/6 blocks takes place, we have an extremely important APEC summit week in Da Nang, which all the APEC countries' leaders will be attending:http://www.vir.com.vn/danang-set-to-smile-on-apec-economic-leaders-week-2017.htmlThis is a seriously important prestigious junket for Da Nang. When I was there in February, the city was buzzing with one of the minor pre-meetings, so it will be a huge deal to have the leaders in town.What's the relevance? I've got no idea. But the timing is extremely interesting relative to the signing of 125/6.......because blocks 125/6 lie directly offshore from Da Nang.I can't believe that the delay of the signing of 125/6 to the week before the leaders' meeting in Da Nang is in any way coincidental. But what's the significance? Perhaps not long to wait to find out?

[nigelpm] 19/10/2017 14:19

Against that background, the lack of interest in the mid-cap E&P sector and SOCO is a bit perplexing, especially when the majors (Shell etc) continue to be well-supported.

Can only guess it's just a complete lack of appetite and risk profile from the larger corporates in the sector. The real surprise is that a PE/investment fund hasn't taken a look given the cash position and relative safety both in downside protection and future cash flows - guess it just isn't their bag.

Their loss to some degree - I wouldn't be too upset if the share price hangs around here for another 12 months - you can be sure there's value to be had by regular top ups.

[jotoha2] 19/10/2017 13:39

Looks like boredom is setting in and small holders selling , it's about time they came up with some news.

[jotoha2] 19/10/2017 11:44

oops wrong thread

[emptyend] 19/10/2017 11:17

jotoha2 - PMO was priced to go bust at one point and heavily oversold. But, as I say, its perplexing re SIA....I can only assume that people are looking backwards more than forwards (due to lack of forward clarity re firm developments)HA - noted...can't access at present in the app.

[haideralifool] 19/10/2017 10:29

ee you have a PM.

[jotoha2] 19/10/2017 10:17

You may be wary of PMO and TLW but they have at least had a nice bounce back since the low oil price of 2016 , Pmo went up over 300% from 20p to 90p and Tlw from 120P TO 320P , so clearly the market is not with you on this .Soco by comparison has just drifted up and down by around 20% !!
Lets see what the news brings , if it happens , they have till qtr 4 as per their news release.

[emptyend] 19/10/2017 10:03

Very ancient history (from 2000) but I ran across this re 9-2 bidding.......quite interesting for terms and context at the time:http://www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/913753/bidders-marching-to-vietnam-blockI also found that SOCO have been assessing 125/6 blocks since 2010...... so it has taken 7 years to actually get hold of the blocks. During this time the oil price has been substantially reduced and (new) work programmes have become less onerous to reflect this....so it is probably reasonable timing to start work now, given that oil prices seem likely to be firm gently with the Aramco float.Against that background, the lack of interest in the mid-cap E&P sector and SOCO is a bit perplexing, especially when the majors (Shell etc) continue to be well-supported. Sure, there are reasons to be wary of some of the peers (notably PMO and TLW) due to their debt positions coupled with commitments, but I would have thought the unique financial profile of SOCO should be worth a premium to other E&Ps as it is more akin to that of a major (albeit without the asset diversification)...... and it would also make a good bolt-on acquisition - at least when Africa is tidied-up (which is one reason why I think the corporate deal will be based around an asset swap).

[emptyend] 18/10/2017 10:07

Not sure whether they will have very much more to say about the prospects on 125/6 (there was a bit in the interims presentation) but they may give an indication of the timeline for the seismic programme.I'd expect them to update on TGT at the same time. And I wouldn't wholly rule out a surprise, given that quite a high profile signing ceremony seems to be planned. I can think of a number of things that would fall into the "surprise" category, all of which have been mentioned here before - so I won't bother repeating them and will just wait to see if there are any.

[greyingsurfer] 18/10/2017 08:57

125/6 signing likely in next two weeks, I understand.

Good news.

I'd hope we might get a bit of an update about prospects at 125/6 with the announcement when it comes.

Peter

[jotoha2] 18/10/2017 08:15

Will give them until the end of qtr 4 , it's dead money otherwise , TLW and PMO making a nice return while this is sitting here in limbo land.

[emptyend] 17/10/2017 20:46

125/6 signing likely in next two weeks, I understand.

[emptyend] 17/10/2017 13:23

Oversimplification there. The need for growth is clearly accepted and has been running through the corporate strategy commentary since Q4 last year when the FFDP was signed off. Yet to produce results, of course, but the current quarter should see three big events:1 Removal of water handling constraints at TGT & potential upgrade to production forecasts (and perhaps write-back of reserves) in due course2 Signing of 125/6 blocks, with significant exploration upside3 Corporate transaction(s) targeted at growthThe question of profits (re the dividend) isn't as important as cashflow, which has remained positive. Around half the total production costs charged to the P&L are DD&A non-cash costs (eating into net assets in the balance sheet)...so, looked at another way, the payment of dividends is simply returning balance sheet investment assets to shareholders. Or one could say "monetising the balance sheet"............and the growth strategy is intended to replace the balance sheet reductions. So growth certainly helps the long-term sustainability of dividends, but the existing assets are perfectly capable of generating dividends until end of life.

[jotoha2] 17/10/2017 11:54

Payment of dividend is fine if the company is growing and making good profits , this has not been the case for the last two years , they need to get back to profitable growth , the dividend will then take care of itself , where is the news on increasing production and tidying up the portfolio of assets , lets hope this is not another SEY in the making !!

[weeeck] 17/10/2017 11:54

Interesting Read.

[emptyend] 17/10/2017 11:39

The dividend is paramount. The company is on record with the analysts in stating that.

[patdavey] 17/10/2017 10:00

Anyone care to guess on the likelihood of a dividend next year? I recall a 2p dividend declared in both March and September last year and then a 5p divi declared in March this year.

[armunro] 17/10/2017 08:35

Got tired of waiting for something to happen with this share. Sold out and put the money into something else. There is something to be said for buying a share with momentum...

[haideralifool] 17/10/2017 08:08

Asia-facing? Like Tanzania? ;)