Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 30/3/2018 14:34

....well they aren't wrong with that headline! Any other comment in IC??

[thingybob] 30/3/2018 12:44

"Time for Soco to Step Up" Rated a speculative buy in the IC FWIW

[emptyend] 29/3/2018 17:08

...well there are certainly tax losses to be had over the last year for many holders......It is interesting that volume has picked up over recent days too. But I doubt that is the story.

[nigelpm] 29/3/2018 16:58

Interesting close - suspect tax fun and games.

[eggbaconandbubble] 29/3/2018 16:26

Has Soco got to 'The Endgame' yet or do we have to wait till after Easter?

[nigelpm] 29/3/2018 09:52

But ultimately the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Soco is strongly cashflow-positive.....and that should have significant value. We'll see.

That's the key and a third of its market cap is cash.

I share the same concerns as many on here but it's hard to overlook the value at play.

[dunderheed] 29/3/2018 09:36

You're missing the point whilst the cagles hadn't done any deals for sia they were a safe pair of hands.
In ee's words the Cairn duo were brought in to do deal for sia? What value adding deals did they do whilst at Cairn?
From basic research weren't they the front people for another firm (magna energy) a year or so ago where they had access to up to $500 mm in a very good time to do deals?
How successful was that venture?
I'm only asking.....
All imho and dyor as always!

[emptyend] 29/3/2018 09:13

Richalert, I'm completely unconcerned about the Cagles' retirement. Because that is exactly what it is. It isn't the first time: as I understand it they had to be tempted out of their first very early (sailing) retirement when Ed wanted to form Soco in the 1990s.I know with some certainty (from exchanges over many years) that an exit was actively being sought....hence the initial expectation that a deal to sell up has continued to be a strong possibility, even after the idea of selling up in 2007/8 got scuppered by the financial crash. But the issue was always trying to find a management they would trust to run the company (bearing in mind that they would still have chunks of shares unless there was a cash deal).As it has turned out, they chose a team they knew well from Cairn to come in and do deals. The Cagles are still - for the moment - on the payroll....and Ed is still there......so there is no loss of knowledge. And (very importantly for doing mergers) the fact that the Cagles are retiring, and Ed is clearly ready to do so, gives plenty of options in merging companies, especially with two slightly younger people (hopefully) doing the deal.But ultimately the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Soco is strongly cashflow-positive.....and that should have significant value. We'll see.

[dunderheed] 28/3/2018 23:00

20827 I wrote similar about Roger and Cynthia leaving myself around tgectime it was announced I think ? They were sia.
Got paid very handsomely for it mind you lol. All imho of course.

[richalert] 28/3/2018 22:55

EE, re post 20824, you have now come around to thinking my misgivings, from nearly 3 months previous. I am really concerned about the resignations of Roger and Cynthia Cagle, and the real reasons behind these. It is ok to say - to follow other pursuits - or similar, but if things get sticky that is a common response. So I think the next AGM could be really interesting, and I really hope the BOD have some good answers. Otherwise it may be the end of the road for me. If you recall I had a wobble around 6 months ago and maybe should have had courage to completely sell up then.

[buywell3] 28/3/2018 21:17

USA are playing a very crafty game here


U.S. production continued to rise for a fifth-straight week and now stands at 10.433 million barrels a day.

"Considering company guidance and rig counts, we see no reason for this rate of increase to change significantly," said Kyle Cooper, a consultant at ION Energy Advisors.

Production from the prolific Permian region of west Texas likely led to a 1.8 million barrel increase in oil stockpiles at the main storage hub in Cushing, Okla., analysts at Citigroup said.

[nigelpm] 27/3/2018 09:37

Incidentally, Nigel, on checking back the auditors confirmed that it was a company decision to move their accounting policy to successful efforts. I remain interested as to what prompted that.

That is indeed interesting. Your theory potentially holds more weight in that case.

[emptyend] 27/3/2018 08:57

I don't quite see it like that Lauders. I will be reading the Remuneration report quite carefully and comparing it with other companies - but my concerns are:a) quantum of management packagesb) that there seems to be a reward for reducing the share price, in that the share awards are made by value. So the failure to execute any transformative deals in the last year (and indeed the writing-off of assets that they might have sold but didn't) has actually resulted in more of the company passing to the execs. That seems to me to be wrong in principle.More fundamentally, I note that the company claims to be "Poised for Growth" in its prelims headline. Not for the first time, I think......at least in tone. We have now had about six years of this "yield of a major but with growth" pitch......and we have now had c.18 years of "Recognising opportunity........Realising value". In both cases the ordinary course of business stuff has mostly been delivered and one cannot complain at the yield since 2012 (albeit partly facilitated by a falling share price)......but where is the growth? Where is the recognition of opportunity (other than in VN 125/6)? Where is the realisation of value?.......there have been more write-offs than realisations!A year ago, the company had a strategy reset and focused on doing deals. Well where are they? Deals aren't easy - but if the company sets a strategy based on doing deals, and then does none, what are shareholders supposed to think? One thing they certainly won't think is that management should be rewarded for failure.I'm a very patient investor. I've held the shares for 19 years now. Overall I have no complaints, of course, especially in the first 10 years.....and even through to the oil price fall in 2014. But the company seems to have completely lost its way since then.....and I am growing impatient with the lack of forward progress, the lack of evidence of "Recognising opportunity" or "Realising value"....and indeed the lack of growth!Obviously the oil price fall in 2014 needed substantial adjustments. But these seem to have continued to be value-destructive, even after the 2015 shock had been dealt with.....and that is a considerable disappointment. It is all very well "clearing the decks" and getting set to move forward.....but shareholders DO need to see progress - and there doesn't seem to have been any.Incidentally, Nigel, on checking back the auditors confirmed that it was a company decision to move their accounting policy to successful efforts. I remain interested as to what prompted that.

[nigelpm] 27/3/2018 07:54

To be fair ee has been critical in the past when they've taken the proverbial as they are clearly doing here.

[lauders] 26/3/2018 23:47

Wow! EE negative on SIA management. I nearly fell off my perch ;-)

They do seem to be milking things for all their worth and their awards are not performance based. They would being refunding shareholders if that were the case!

[greyingsurfer] 26/3/2018 15:13

I haven't gone back to see the terms of the initial deal on these, but my jaw dropped somewhat reading the RNS. I wouldn't suggest that they haven't been working hard at moving things forward, but I don't think it's unreasonable for shareholders to expect to see some correlation between performance payments and enhanced shareholder value, in terms of positive share price moves.I've no doubt the awards are within the terms agreed, but I am not impressed.Peter

[dunderheed] 26/3/2018 11:02

20819. Phewey that's put the bod on 'notice'.
I bet they're quaking in their boots?
All we need is Nigel 'but dim' to post next and Exxon hearing all about this, will probably be swooping soon?
I'm still wondering about the linkage of that job that EE drew specific attention too, a few months ago and further BD announcements?
When will this (incredibly complicated) puzzle start to come to shape?
All imho of course and no investment advice intended.

[emptyend] 26/3/2018 10:45

Having raised the question of remuneration with the Chairman at the last AGM, I can see that I will be doing so again. The last time I publicly and openly challenged a CEO about their compensation at their AGM (Dana) they were bid for within a few weeks.The time for action by management is now - if they want to try to justify these packages at the AGM, they have just over two months to deliver deals and value for shareholders! I'm not very impressed.

[nigelpm] 23/3/2018 14:02

I fully agree - but it's not just a Soco issue.

[nigelpm] 23/3/2018 13:31

Needs change - I agree wholeheartedly.

[ed 123] 23/3/2018 13:04

I see Ed Story gets another half million shares free of charge (and the Company eases his partial sale for him.)

Please don't anyone say it helps align him with the ordinary shareholders!

He already gets a huge salary. Yes, I know it was put to a vote. Institutional shareholders live in their own world.

Meanwhile, as stated previously the last two additional wells on TGT came in at only 2500 and 1600 boe/d gross, the licence period ticks down and there is a problem concerning gas compression.

Holders are watching hypodermics being stuck into the hide of a leased rhino while the doctor takes a huge fee and the reversionary owner ticks off the days on his calendar.

[nigelpm] 23/3/2018 11:28

Also from RNS:


Capital expenditure for 2018 is budgeted at approx. $40m. The 2018 Vietnam work programme includes modification works on the FPSO and infill drilling of 2/3 wells on the TGT field and one well on the CNV field. Production guidance for 2018 is set at a net average 8,000 to 9,000 BOEPD. $6.0mm of the capital expenditure is allocated for the purchase, processing and interpretation of seismic data on Blocks 125 & 126.

SO....

Absolute maximum on existing production is $34m however a portion of that is on development drilling and modification works - so to state :


but they need to spend $40M just to maintain production levels.

is plain wrong.

[nigelpm] 23/3/2018 11:17

Slide 7 :

Activity and investment for 2018 to include:

- 2018 Capex; TGT - $29.3m

• TGT
- Development drilling - 2/3 wells
- Modification works on the FPSO

[nigelpm] 23/3/2018 11:03

The capital expenditure is the killer. I know you don't like to discuss this but they need to spend $40M just to maintain production levels.

No they don't - you need to review the slides and the RNS from yesterday!