Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[togglebrush] 05/12/2019 07:13

Interims out Revenue (+4%), Profits before Tax (+30%),
Divi 5.4p (+4%) XD 14 Apr Paid 1st May

[riggerbeautz] 05/12/2019 07:12

Those results look good to a new investor, be interested what everyone makes of them.

[jeffian] 04/12/2019 10:57

Maybe, maybe not. I think macro-economic issues rule at the moment - Brexit, trade wars, banking system worries - so good results do not necessarily get their immediate rewards. This is one of my bigger holdings as a result of transferring part of my ill-gotten gains from RPC and for me it is just a question of leaving it there and collecting the divis with the aim of long-term growth, not short-term gains.

[97peter] 03/12/2019 22:11

Should be good figures with turnover and acquisitions and sales all sorted and doing well. Then Friday and or Monday we should see SMDS back over 400p.

[moorsie2] 03/12/2019 17:21

Sector has had a horrible two days. Lets hope management impress with dazzling numbers and story on Thursday

[moorsie2] 02/12/2019 09:06

good buying opportunity ahead of results - trading significantly below its peer SKG at the moment

[s00172] 01/12/2019 16:53

mondis results weren't too compelling- shares dropped 3% b4 picking up

[alan@bj] 01/12/2019 09:13

Interim results this Thursday. The City will be looking for an update on cost savings on the acquisition of Europac, and analysts at Jefferies expect full year pre-tax profits up 6.2% to £604.3m, according to The Sunday Times.

[bertymole] 01/12/2019 06:59

A buying opportunity beckons

[moorsie2] 25/11/2019 15:44

Can see the potential for a nice 8 day run up to results on 5th Dec here.

Looking at how SKG has appreciated since Sept then SMDS has at least 25 to 30p more to catch up on..

lets see if it happens

[dr_smith] 19/11/2019 09:36

Just checking, I see HY results due 5/12/19:

[jeffian] 17/11/2019 23:18

EJ,
Please don't remind me about FOUR! I used to be a shareholder in Bemrose via a family connection and didn't really understand what it was about when they sold the printing businesses and became a 'virtual' promo company. Sold at around 40p. Price today? About £30. Ouch!

[riggerbeautz] 17/11/2019 22:49

Good to hear from you Moorsie, I’ll add at some point my real concern is the wider economy, for that reason I’ve very few longs but this looked oversold earlier in the year and it still does now.

[dr_smith] 17/11/2019 21:27

While we're in review mode...
Like a few here, I used to be in RPC too.
Gut tells me online market should have positive effect on deamnd, though not aware of general market demand, but on basis of likes of PMI and other indices assume it is somewhere between flat and single digit percent increase presently for packaging.
Is all packaging paper and/or plastic, are there other materials?

I am surprised we haven't seen evidence of plastics scaling back, but expect future policies will result in (non-reusable) plastics use to slowly come down, so paper (and any other green packaging materials) to increase.

Paper based seems to have had a rough time recently due to cost of raw materials, and green aspect hasn't compensated (yet) like I would have expected...so if higher input costs can't be passed on to customer, that implies something else must be taking up demand.
Is that a swing to plastics or another material?
I have no hands on experience in this sector, so unsure why higher input costs can't be passed on to customer.
Anyone know why?
Dave

[moorsie2] 17/11/2019 19:39

Hi Riggerbeautz

Yes sentiment on cyclicals moved to positive just 2 weeks ago and this one was heavily oversold on the way down when sentiment moved against the industry 14 months ago.

I feel this has more to run to get back to industry average. 430 or so I will review my holding

[davr0s] 17/11/2019 16:31

I had a share a few years back that started small and I added as it broke out and repeated itself until it became 40% of my account lol. It then tanked one day and I sold having lost something like 15% in one day. But it added in the region of 25% to my account. It's why I do what I do now as when they come along they can transform your account profitability. I'm not expecting SMDS to be that kind of share as it's quite a large mkt cap already but you never know how far they are going to go when they start moving

[jeffian] 17/11/2019 16:14

EJ,
Sorry if we've had this discussion before on another thread - it's a point I often feel moved to respond to - but I find myself in a similar position to you but at the other end of the spectrum in investing attitude. I know it depends entirely on one's appetite for risk and that at our time of life we should be avoiding risk and putting it all in bonds or cash but, like someone else above, I find myself drawn to winners and for the past decade or so have specifically targeted shares in my portfolio which are performing well and yet still do not seem expensive and continue to pile into those. The result is that my most successful shares often represent a significant proportion of my portfolio - over 50% in one case - and that is how one can achieve outperformance. If you set a target of 3% for any one share, you will always be selling winners and your performance is bound to be average. I came to SMDS from RPC which, via additions and Rights Issues etc had come to represent 12% of my portfolio before the takeover. As I say, I entirely respect that you may with good reason be more risk-averse, but it's a method which is bound to punish your best shares.

[davr0s] 16/11/2019 18:39

Yeah it's on my watch list for Monday. I'm a systematic trader and I've done a lot of analysis across 10years of UK and US data as knowing when to sell and not when you buy is the really hard bit. My aim is always to buy into a share breaking upwards and hold forever (well until the trend breaks). The sweet spot varies with market conditions which makes it doubly hard. So for this share I buy the break and will sell if it drops below he recent consolidation regardless. I then ride the trend until the trend weakens and breaks - I have absolutely no idea at what level that will occur!

[joshuam] 16/11/2019 17:51

Good points davros biggest problem I have is selling too early or not selling quick enough, always good to re-evaluate your stock regularly and read others view points. I have gone long......good luck all.

[davr0s] 16/11/2019 11:25

Price can go anywhere but ask yourself this question... If you sell or top slice a share breaking out then how will you ever own a share that going to be a bigger winner. Key to this game is hanging onto shares going up and adding to them as they can become big winners and avoiding the big losers which means chopping shares that break down as not all come back up and these are the ones that destroy your portfolio