Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Skyepharma LSE:SKP London Ordinary Share GB00B3BFNB64 ORD 100P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 443.00 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 95.90 30.50 25.10 17.6 469
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 0.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
10/6/201610:23Skyepharma - Charts & News21,695
06/9/201400:02INTENSIVE CARE - Skyepharma 2006 :13,297
22/8/201415:27SKP - doomed20
27/3/201112:53SKYEPHARMA- TECHNOLOGIES - Huge Potential 2005:17,789
08/12/200716:08INTENSIVE CRAP - Skyepharma 2006.21

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Skyepharma (SKP) Top Chat Posts

frazboy: This is bizarre. It looks like a straightforward 5% return is available on SKP by buying the stock, and holding until the deal goes through. Two caveats, the first is the deal doesn't go through (unlikely), and two VEC share price could slip.
soundbuy: H/T FT AV Numis The union of Vectura and Skyepharma is one of the most complementary mergers in the UK healthcare sector. It will create a £1bn+ FTSE250 UK respiratory champion with strong, globally competitive technologies and capabilities across the entire spectrum of dry powder, smart nebuliser and now metered dose inhalers, making it the partner of choice in targeting the airways and allowing it to address 60% more of the $35bn global respiratory market than Vectura did on its own. We see the merger as a strategically and financially logical step-up for Vectura, with the combined company offering critical mass and attractive growth at a good price. We re-introduce our Buy recommendation with a 12-month target of 264p. ● In this 30-page note, we look at Skyepharma in some detail, focusing on Flutiform in particular. We see the prospect of it becoming a c.$500m drug as realistic, offering Vectura shareholders a growing, lower risk cash flow to diversify its higher risk prospects (VR315 and wholly owned FAVOLIR / SCIPE assets). ● The ongoing roll-out of Flutiform is set to transform the P&L with revenues and underlying EBITDA set to approximately double and then grow at 14% and 20% CAGR respectively to end FY2021. EPS CAGR is higher, at 33%. ● We see EPS accretion of 24% in year 1 (FY2017, 7% ROI), growing to c.60% over years 2-3 (FY2018-2019, double digit ROI), then falling to single digits as VR315 royalties come through and are spread over a higher share count. ● The deal washes its face on our risk-adjusted SOTP analysis (£470m vs £460m consideration and estimated costs). ● Our risk adjusted SOTP value is 14% diluted from our previous 271p target. The potential for platform synergies are not captured in this approach, which to date has attributed no terminal value to the assets. ● Skyepharma will bring in significant near-term cash-flows to give management a multitude of options to make the leap to self-commercialisation and build lasting sustainable enterprise value. The time feels right to switch to a multiple-based valuation. ● We see the increased size, liquidity and FTSE250 listing increasing awareness of Vectura's steep forecast trajectory. A rating relative to BTG feels appropriate. Applying a P/E in line with BTG of 24.7x (vs 29% risked EPS CAGR) our risked FY2020 EPS of 16.8p (fully taxed) and discounting back, we see a multiples based valuation of 294p. We blend this with our SOTP of 234p to derive our target price of 264p, reflecting the need to complete the transition to self commercialisation. ● On our initial projected consolidated EPS forecasts, Vectura's P/E drops to single digits by year 3 (FY2019), now driven mostly by Flutiform: a strong buy signal in our view. RBC Cap Mkts. Strategic rationale: Strategically, we see the deal enhancing Vectura’s capabilities (oral, pMDI and commercial manufacturing) but think the financial rationale is the main motive for the combination. Vectura has a larger pipeline but its partnered assets have only recently launched and its financial profile still less developed than SKP’s, which has a smaller pipeline but with key assets launched and delivering profit growth (FY15A EBITDA margin of 37.5%). Combined, we see the two offering a healthy pipeline of opportunities with a strong financial profile. Turbo charged financials: We choose not to update our forecasts (or valuation) until completion of the deal and instead provide a view on the combination below and within the note. The New Co will have an implied Mcap of £1.1bn and offer a revenue, EBITDA and EPS 3-year CAGR (FY17E-20E) of 31.7%, 41.3% and 32.1% respectively with a FCF yield of c10%. More importantly, the Group will become attactive on conventional multiple metrics, PE of 12.6x FY18E EPS (March YE) given the earnings ramp delivered by SKP. Valuation mixed: We think Vectura have paid a fair but full price for SKP which, when executed alongside recent share price weakness has magnified the potential dilution. That said, we acknowledge that acquisition targets that fit well rarely coincide with perfect market conditions. Our conventional valuation for Vectura (SoTP; DCF and rNPV) suggests fair value of New Co at c190p (down from 206p) once the deal completes. However, we think investors should focus on the New Co financial profile which shows the shares trading on an implied EV/EBITDA of sub 10x by FY18E and 12.6x FY18E EPS. Considering upcoming newsflow (VR315 in particular) alongside growth and cash generation metrics we believe a re-rating likely from these low levels given the growth on offer. Valuation: Given the risk associated with assets not yet approved by regulators or still in their launch phase we utilise a SoTP model; for partnered launched assets we utilise NPV analysis with a WACC rate of 7% (Vectura is net cash) and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection. For partnered pipeline assets we use risk-adjusted NPVs with a discount rate of 10%, standard industry associated risk adjustments and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection on the products. For wholly owned pipeline assets we also use a rNPV (again a discount rate of 10% and standard risk adjustments) but apply a terminal with a growth rate of -2.5%. This provides our price target of 205p and our Outperform rating, although near term newsflow on VR315 in the US and on both Utibron & Seebri assets (also US) may drive our valuation towards 230p. We have not updated our forecasts or valuation for the SKP merger, but provide sensitivity analysis to our forecasts and valuation within. Price target impediments: We see two key impediments to our price target and rating: 1. VR315 – The launch of VR315 in the US is arguably the most important launch from Vectura’s pipeline over the coming months. A generic of Advair (aka Seretide) we anticipate the product being directly substitutable and, with only one competitor (Mylan) in the short term we have modelled only partial price erosion. If this launch is delayed then this would erode an estimated c7p for each 6 month delay and we see downside risk as capped at c.50p to our valuation if the product fails to launch altogether. 2. Utibron & Seebri – Whilst we believe Novartis is unlikely to shelve these assets in the US, it could find a commercial partner given the cost of launching and as the market becomes more competitive. We see downside risk of c.20p to our valuation if the assets are not launched in the US.
debbie_does_dallas_twice: No Sten. We are actually trading under the effective offer price by 18p right now. It is all dependent on the VEC share price, the offer is 2.29 VEC shares per 1 SKP share. The offer is not a pre determined set actual figure. So the offer price actually moves in line with the Vec price, save the arb! With vec at 159p times that by 2.79 and you have the effective offer price. (159x2.79) is 443p-so this is what the offer is worth at this time. So consequently we are now dependent on the movement on VEC with the regards our share-price movement. Vec today is up 4% , we are still nearly 18p off the true offer conversion price at the moment
stentorian: SoundBuy, It means that the market believes that 410.5p is not enough for VEC to buy SKP. As the SKP share price hit 430p plus today, the market believes that an interloper will appear and pay a price that is nearer to what SKP is actually worth. It would also suggest that it would need to be someone with some cash rather than offering all shares and appropriating SKP's cash!
debbie_does_dallas_twice: alexchry/ Well to be honest i think SKP products are already proved up and generating huge relatively safe incomes. i believe (until today)that skp was one of the safest bets on the market with its predictable growth story income, now at least short term our share price will depend on the movement of VEC, which i must admit i dont particularity care for! I think we will see action in the next month or so. Not being blunt, i think we are far too attractive for Vec to walk away with us on the cheap. Save the token 70 mill , they are basically using paper to get our cash pile (41 mil) and our revenue to fund their products development.If you take our cash pile out of the deal that they are using almost all paper. I as a skp holder don't feel overjoyed moving from low risk to higher risk at zero premium!
martincc: Share price has held up well past few days and again this am, looks like someone's had a peep at the results?
aceuk: HBMN has been an investor in Skyepharma since 2001 and has taken a private equity-style approach, owning a significant proportion of the company (28.5% at 31 December 2015). It remained close to the business through a difficult period in 2008/09 when Flutiform failed to gain US approval, and was involved in a capital raising in 2014 that saw the company’s debt reduced substantially. Wicki says the HBMN team took the view that the business could be restructured and become profitable – a conviction that has been vindicated by the company’s recent results and a rising share price (up 464% over three years to 15 February, although it has fallen back slightly in market volatility since the start of the year). Wicki sees Skyepharma as a low-risk, stable investment – with products already successfully on the market, it does not have the binary risk characteristics of earlier-stage companies – and a potential source of cash in the future. He points out that the company has net cash and is generating substantial income from royalties (including from Pacira, spun out of the company in 2007), and has many options (including potential acquisitions of new technology) because it is now solidly financed. Edison research HBM
kfp: I can remember when a rise of 23p would have doubled the share price !
cityfarmer: All water under the bridge but cant help wondering what the SKP share price would have been if we had been able to hold on to the injectables business... The SKP Daddy
aceuk: Skyepharma Medical play Skyepharma (LSE: SKP) has seen its share price gallop 43% higher during the past three weeks alone, and I believe the firm's stunning drugs pipeline should deliver further share price growth. The business pleased investors in late August when it advised sales had jumped 19% during January-June, to £40.8m, with flagship asthma treatment Flutiform enjoying a revenues bump of 129% from the corresponding 2014 period.
Skyepharma share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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